How many seats...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I thought this was for the House when I voted. whoops!

Anyway, if the election was held today, the Democrats would win Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. Next year, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and New Mexico will be highly competitive, and one or two may even drift over to "sure thing" status. I'm not holding my breath on Nebraska -- Kerrey is being too damn coy about running now, and nobody else has a chance against Johanns, especially in an election year.

So I'll say 5 -- the first three and two of ME/MN/OR/NM. I have no idea which.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.

Wise call.

The Democratic primary is turning into a nasty fight. The underdog, a liberal lawyer/grassroots activist, just outraised the "establishment candidate," Speaker Jeff Merkley.  The underdog recently sent out an inflammatory press release that chided Merkley for his poor fundraising perfromance.

How does that work, exactly? Merkley raised over twice what Novick raised, and the majority of that was in the month of September alone. Novick has a few thousand more on hand, but I don't see how he could be gloating about that, considering he's been in the race since, like, April.