What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....
Seeing as how they are virtually in agreement, the choice seems rather unnecessary.
Considering that Smith had a 6 point lead with a Green (probably) playing spoiler, and a combined vote total of Republican candidates, it's safe to say that Smith is probably up by more. The general electorate will probably be more Democratic than the primary electorate as well.
Point taken, though it has now been over a month since the primary. It is not inconceivable that the numbers have moved since then.
ut while Murray's numbers have moved in the opposite direction?
Murray's numbers likely moved because of something Murray did, not because of the national mood. The numbers here are what they are probably because this race has not been localized—it's low enough attention that you're just getting a default set of nationalized numbers. And that's dangerous for Smith.
Smith has been on the air for several months now fwiw. He's not just running on autopilot.