Mexican state elections 2016

[jaichind]

That's not a poll for who you will never vote for, that's a poll for who you think is going to win.

Oops. Graber the wrong picture. There was a poll on who you will never vote for but I got the wrong link

[jaichind]

Here is the right link of the poll of who you will never vote for in Oaxaca



It is even worse for PRI

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   47.9
PRD-PAN               22.0

[jaichind]

Ispos poll for Sinaloa has PRI ahead and PAS-MC strong but unlike other polls not withing striking distance of winning.



PRI-PVEM-PANAL      36
PAN                          21
PAS-MC                    13

[jaichind]

I did some reading on why there is such a surge for MORENA in Veracruz.  It seems that drug crime and corruption has surged last few years and the current PRI governor Javier Duarte seems to be the source of a lot of this to the point that even the PRI has demanded he give a full account of his actions.  This should give PAN-PRD is great chance.  But the PAN-PRD candidate Miguel Angel Yunes has become roiled in illicit-wealth scandals with his son’s name appeared in the Panama Papers.  This seems to give a chance for the MORENA candidate Cuitlahuac Garcia who is a high school teacher that made it into Congress last year on the MORENA ticket.  Unlike the other two parties it seems Garcia is not touched by corruption.  Garcia is also featuring prominently AMLO to help him campaign which will give him a significant floor even if it caps his ceiling.  If MORENA comes in a strong second or even wins it will give a big boast for AMLO as he plans to run for President in 2018.

[ag]

I did some reading on why there is such a surge for MORENA in Veracruz.  It seems that drug crime and corruption has surged last few years and the current PRI governor Javier Duarte seems to be the source of a lot of this to the point that even the PRI has demanded he give a full account of his actions.  This should give PAN-PRD is great chance.  But the PAN-PRD candidate Miguel Angel Yunes has become roiled in illicit-wealth scandals with his son’s name appeared in the Panama Papers.  This seems to give a chance for the MORENA candidate Cuitlahuac Garcia who is a high school teacher that made it into Congress last year on the MORENA ticket.  Unlike the other two parties it seems Garcia is not touched by corruption.  Garcia is also featuring prominently AMLO to help him campaign which will give him a significant floor even if it caps his ceiling.  If MORENA comes in a strong second or even wins it will give a big boast for AMLO as he plans to run for President in 2018.

Veracruz governor has, indeed, had a horrible reputation for a long time. He is accused for going as far as ordering assassinations of local journalists - and, on ocasion, of having them killed even outside the state.

More importantly, though, the state is, fairly diverse. It has long-standing leftist areas (including the state capita. Xalapa), some conservative territory and a large PRIista heartland. Note, further, that AMLO himself is from a neighboring state (Tabasco) and shares both the Caribbean accent and quite a strong cultural affinity with, at least, the southern part of Veracruz.

[BundouYMB]

Monreal surges into the lead in Zacatecas in a new poll by Fuerometria:

http://www.fuero.com.mx/fuerometria/12470-david-monreal-avila-candidato-morena-gobierno-zacatecas-encabeza-la-preferencias-gobernador-fuerometria

[BundouYMB]

Another poll with Morena ahead in Veracruz, this time from El Universal: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/estados/2016/06/1/veracruz-3-en-empate-todo-se-define-el-domingo

[BundouYMB]

Quintana Roo poll from Lavin y Asociados:

[BundouYMB]

Demotecnia poll has PRI leading in Tamaulipas: http://www.demotecnia.com.mx/dmt/index.php/9-encuestas/99-baltazar-se-despega-en-tamaulipas

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Monreal surges into the lead in Zacatecas in a new poll by Fuerometria:

http://www.fuero.com.mx/fuerometria/12470-david-monreal-avila-candidato-morena-gobierno-zacatecas-encabeza-la-preferencias-gobernador-fuerometria

What an ugly graph.

[BundouYMB]

Lavin y Asociados also has Monreal surging into the lead:

[jaichind]

Wow, this election could literally end up with MORENA (2) winning more governor seats than PAN-PRD (1 which is Puebla and that's it)

[jaichind]

I have to assume from a win/lose threshold point of view, even if PRI manages to win back Oaxaca and Sinaloa, if they lose Veracruz they would have lost this election round given how large Veracruz is.  Of course they have a 1/3 if not better shot a winning there.

[ag]

I am more afraid of narrow losses for Morena. Because they will never accept those.

2 years ago, when the changed the election date to June (from July) people at the then IFE were horrified, in part, because they realized that next time a close election happens schools will be in session.

The strange thing, it all happens completely outside of the attention of people in Mexico City. Even major newspapers have this election well down on the inside pages. When Universidad Veracruzana in Xalapa burns, it will be a shock for everybody around here.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What sort of manifestos are the Morena people promising?

[ag]

What sort of manifestos are the Morena people promising?

"Everybody else is either a crook or a swindler. We are the only honest people on the planet. Mexico will be renewed," etc. The funny thing is, Monreals are among the most corrupt Mexican politicians out there (likely serious narco issues, besides everything else).

[jaichind]

The strange thing, it all happens completely outside of the attention of people in Mexico City. Even major newspapers have this election well down on the inside pages. When Universidad Veracruzana in Xalapa burns, it will be a shock for everybody around here.

That does sound strange.  I would think people would view this election as a semi-final for the 2018 elections especially for jockeying within the parties.  I have to imagine that for Osorio Chong to stay a viable candidate for PRI in 2018, PRI has to do well in his home state of Hidalgo.

[ag]

The strange thing, it all happens completely outside of the attention of people in Mexico City. Even major newspapers have this election well down on the inside pages. When Universidad Veracruzana in Xalapa burns, it will be a shock for everybody around here.

That does sound strange.  I would think people would view this election as a semi-final for the 2018 elections especially for jockeying within the parties.  I have to imagine that for Osorio Chong to stay a viable candidate for PRI in 2018, PRI has to do well in his home state of Hidalgo.

PRI will do well in Hidalgo.

I do not think Osorio Chong is viable, frankly, no matter what happens, though.

[jaichind]

I realized that in Veracruz the PRI candidate, Héctor Yunes Landa, is the cousin of the PAN-PRD candidate Miguel Ángel Yunes.   

[ag]

I realized that in Veracruz the PRI candidate, Héctor Yunes Landa, is the cousin of the PAN-PRD candidate Miguel Ángel Yunes.   

I mean, Yunes is not a very common last name in Latin America, is it?

[ag]

Off to marginally increase the likely negligible turnout in the CDMX Constituent Assembly elections. One of those cases when so few people will vote, my vote might, actually, matter

[ag]

Pretty sparce on voting day in CDMX. When me and my wife were there, may be, 2 other people showed up across the two voting desks (about 950 voters between the two). Passing by several times during the day (I live a block away) never saw anybody entering.

[BundouYMB]

Does anyone have a link to where we can watch the results come in?

[ag]

It will be different in different states. Basically, the way it works, today we get a preliminary count (PREP), which will be published on websites contracted by state electoral entities (these are now INE-supervised, but still logistically separate). Formal counts on Wednesday.

You have a collection of links, for instance, here

http://www.publimetro.com.mx/elecciones/prep-2016-consulta-aqui-programas-de-resultados-electorales-preliminares/mpfb!jpM6GrtuEzJ6c/

[BundouYMB]

It will be different in different states. Basically, the way it works, today we get a preliminary count (PREP), which will be published on websites contracted by state electoral entities (these are now INE-supervised, but still logistically separate). Formal counts on Wednesday.

You have a collection of links, for instance, here

http://www.publimetro.com.mx/elecciones/prep-2016-consulta-aqui-programas-de-resultados-electorales-preliminares/mpfb!jpM6GrtuEzJ6c/

Thanks.