Cuomo v. Teachout

[NHLiberal]

Cuomo actually said today that the only number that matters is 50%. Oof. Kinda like the only poll that matters is Election Day.

Wow, are his internals that bad?

https://twitter.com/eorden/status/506862415502655490

They're pulling out de Blasio to wax rhapsodic about conservadem Hochul tomorrow. Fun!

I wish de Blasio was supporting Teachout. It would be a lot better for his policy goals (if she were to win, but I guess he thinks that's impossible).

[NHLiberal]

David Brat

[NHLiberal]

I have to wonder how things would be going if it was a Wu/Teachout ticket - Wu for Governor, and Teachout for Lieutenant Governor.

Teachout is considerably more charismatic and better at retail politicking... so I think Wu would be performing worse

Wu is only doing better than Teachout because Hochul is more egregious to Dem voters than Cuomo is, shocking as that may be.

Exactly. That, and because LG is a significantly less important office, so voters are much more willing to vote in someone they perceive as inexperienced. These are the two major reasons that NYT endorsed Wu but not Teachout, and the reason they would have endorsed Teachout but not Wu if the ticket was reversed (in other words, it wasn't a diss to Teachout).

[NHLiberal]

Even absolute nobodies get 25% of the vote in New York state (see 2010 Democratic Senatorial Primary). Teachout will easily clear 30%.

Gillibrand still is not as well-known or liked as Cuomo.  Hillary Clinton won almost 82% of the vote in the 2000 Democratic primary and 84% in the 2006 primary.  So, no, absolute nobodies don't usually get 25% in New York Democratic Primaries.  Cuomo is as well-known to New Yorkers as Hillary, not Gillibrand.

No

[NHLiberal]

Would low turnout be a good sign for Cuomo?

Probably Teachout because her supporters are much more enthusiastic