This thread demonstrates why Atlas is so horrendous in the leadup to an election.
It's not necessarily scientific to just purely average the public polls, particularly in a midterm election where the polling tends to be less reliable. I'm not going to argue that Udall is favored, but this race should be seen as a complete tossup.
No, it should not be seen as a tossup. Looking at the last ten polls, Gardner has lead in nine of them. Yes, there have been far bigger upsets than Udall winning here, but he is very clearly the underdog.
That's how I see it. Something tells me that Udall and Braley both win, but unfortunately the Republicans still take the Senate with 51 seats. I just trust the shifting demographics of Colorado, the high percentage of young voters and the real trend of polling underestimating Democrats for two straight cycles. If you think about it, Democrats have quite a win streak in key statewide elections in Colorado going back to 2004. My gut tells me that trend continues.
