My associates are starting to spend again

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

My associates are starting to spend again...

Even though the fear of Obamacare is hurting confidence, people in my neighborhood and surrounding neighborhoods, friends, and family are starting to spend again...buying big ticket items and remodeling their homes.  Even I have begun to spend again.  It's looking more and more like retailers have underestimated demand.

The big cloud hagging over us is Obamacare.  If that passes, businesses and conservatives are REALLY going to stop spending in order to brace themselves for a trillion dollars in new taxes.  If Obamacare passes, the Dems will surely lose >50 seats in the House in 2010 and >6 seats in the Senate. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

My associates are starting to spend again...

Even though the fear of Obamacare is hurting confidence, people in my neighborhood and surrounding neighborhoods, friends, and family are starting to spend again...buying big ticket items and remodeling their homes.  Even I have begun to spend again.  It's looking more and more like retailers have underestimated demand.

The big cloud hagging over us is Obamacare.  If that passes, businesses and conservatives are REALLY going to stop spending in order to brace themselves for a trillion dollars in new taxes.  If Obamacare passes, the Dems will surely lose >50 seats in the House in 2010 and >6 seats in the Senate. 

From the Wall Street Journal:

Number of Troubled Banks Rises to 552; FDIC Fund Sinks Into the Red

JESSICA HOLZER
WASHINGTON -- The government insurance fund that protects more than $4.5 trillion of U.S. bank deposits slipped into the red at the end of September, after fifty banks collapsed during the third quarter.

The deposit insurance fund dropped by $18.6 billion during the third quarter of 2009 to negative $8.2 billion, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. set aside $21.7 billion in provisions for additional bank failures. This is the second time in the agency's history that the balance has fallen into negative territory.

The FDIC has already called on the industry to prepay $45 billion in assessments at the end of the year that will be set aside to cover the cost of bank failures in 2010.

Loan balances plummeted by $210.4 billion or 2.8%, the largest percentage drop on record as banks yanked back credit and saw reduced loan demand. Balances declined across all major loan categories, with commercial and industrial loans falling by $89.1 billion, or 6.5%.

"There is no question that credit availability is an important issue for the economic recovery," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a press conference to announce the quarterly results. "We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers."

Profits were damped by heavy provisioning for loan losses, as banks continued to grapple with bad loans. U.S. banks charged off a net $50.8 billion during the third quarter of 2009, an 80.5% jump from the third quarter of 2008. The industry's annualized net charge-off rate rose to 2.71%, up from 1.43% in the third quarter of 2008. That's the highest since records began in 1984.

Meanwhile, noncurrent loans continued to climb during the quarter, but the rate of growth of such loans slowed for the second quarter in a row. Noncurrent loans increased by 10.5% to $366.6 billion during the third quarter.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

My associates are starting to spend again...

Even though the fear of Obamacare is hurting confidence, people in my neighborhood and surrounding neighborhoods, friends, and family are starting to spend again...buying big ticket items and remodeling their homes.  Even I have begun to spend again.  It's looking more and more like retailers have underestimated demand.

The big cloud hagging over us is Obamacare.  If that passes, businesses and conservatives are REALLY going to stop spending in order to brace themselves for a trillion dollars in new taxes.  If Obamacare passes, the Dems will surely lose >50 seats in the House in 2010 and >6 seats in the Senate. 

From the Wall Street Journal:

Number of Troubled Banks Rises to 552; FDIC Fund Sinks Into the Red

JESSICA HOLZER
WASHINGTON -- The government insurance fund that protects more than $4.5 trillion of U.S. bank deposits slipped into the red at the end of September, after fifty banks collapsed during the third quarter.

The deposit insurance fund dropped by $18.6 billion during the third quarter of 2009 to negative $8.2 billion, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. set aside $21.7 billion in provisions for additional bank failures. This is the second time in the agency's history that the balance has fallen into negative territory.

The FDIC has already called on the industry to prepay $45 billion in assessments at the end of the year that will be set aside to cover the cost of bank failures in 2010.

Loan balances plummeted by $210.4 billion or 2.8%, the largest percentage drop on record as banks yanked back credit and saw reduced loan demand. Balances declined across all major loan categories, with commercial and industrial loans falling by $89.1 billion, or 6.5%.

"There is no question that credit availability is an important issue for the economic recovery," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a press conference to announce the quarterly results. "We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers."

Profits were damped by heavy provisioning for loan losses, as banks continued to grapple with bad loans. U.S. banks charged off a net $50.8 billion during the third quarter of 2009, an 80.5% jump from the third quarter of 2008. The industry's annualized net charge-off rate rose to 2.71%, up from 1.43% in the third quarter of 2008. That's the highest since records began in 1984.

Meanwhile, noncurrent loans continued to climb during the quarter, but the rate of growth of such loans slowed for the second quarter in a row. Noncurrent loans increased by 10.5% to $366.6 billion during the third quarter.

Was this intended to be some kind of shocking news, Carl?  The FDIC was in the red in early 90’s also.  And the banks won’t begin to heal until mid 2010, at the earliest.

[opebo]

jmfcst, surely you will admit, all scare tactics aside, that a trillion dollars is an insignificant amount.  The budget is not even for one year but spread over many years!

Anyway, I suspect your 'associates' are not a very typical group...

[Sbane]

All of your associates are millionaires? Otherwise they won't be getting their taxes raised.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

My associates are starting to spend again...

here is a little confirmation...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

expect November to be even better

[CARLHAYDEN]

UPDATE 4-US shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend
Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:59pm EST
 

 * Black Friday weekend spending down 8 pct per person -NRF

By Nicole Maestri and Brad Dorfman

 SAN FRANCISCO/CHICAGO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers
spent significantly less per person at the start of the holiday
season this weekend, dimming hopes for a retail comeback that
would help propel the economy early in 2010.

 The lackluster spending could pressure retail stocks on
Monday as some investors were looking for a stronger showing
compared with a year earlier, when consumers were being
hammered by the recession and credit crunch.

 "There may be a bit of a pullback, a little
disappointment," said Patricia Edwards, chief investment
officer at Storehouse Partners.

 While shoppers turned out in force as early as U.S.
Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, many said they had zeroed in on
highly discounted items, would buy only what they needed and
would walk out of a store if they did not find a good deal.

 "Shoppers proved this weekend that they were willing to
open their wallets for a bargain," said National Retail
Federation Chief Executive Tracy Mullin in a statement on
Sunday. Retail chains "know they have their work cut out for
them to keep people coming back through Christmas."

 Store chains that may have done better than their peers
include discount retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) and
Target Corp (TGT.N), teen apparel retailers Aeropostale Inc
(ARO.N) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO.N) and higher-end
chains like Saks Inc (SKS.N), analysts said.

 A clearer picture of retail performance will be seen when
many U.S. retailers report November sales on Thursday.

 Consumers said they will have spent nearly 8 percent less
on average, or about $343 per person, over the weekend that
includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday and runs through Sunday,
according to the NRF. [ID:N29405002]

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

UPDATE 4-US shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend
Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:59pm EST
 

what does comparing year-over-year Black Friday numbers have to do with this thread?

[CARLHAYDEN]

UPDATE 4-US shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend
Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:59pm EST
 

what does comparing year-over-year Black Friday numbers have to do with this thread?

You cited Reuters on a government report on consumer spending and I cited Reuters on a private agency report on consumer spending.

We already know that the preliminary government number on the third quarter was significantly overstated (its already been downgraded once). 

I like my source better.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

UPDATE 4-US shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend
Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:59pm EST
 

what does comparing year-over-year Black Friday numbers have to do with this thread?

You cited Reuters on a government report on consumer spending and I cited Reuters on a private agency report on consumer spending.

We already know that the preliminary government number on the third quarter was significantly overstated (its already been downgraded once). 

I like my source better.

but you're comparing year-over-year numbers, Einstein, of which I said NOTHING about, rather I cited month-over-month numbers.  And even the report you cited shows that overall spending INCREASED year-over-year...the only DECREASE was in the money spent per average shopper (down 8%) , but traffic INCREASED 13%, which made the 2009 Black Friday total > 2008 Black Friday total.  Get it?!

On an unrelated note - does someone sneak in very night and pee in your Cheerios?  Because you're one of the most negative posters on the forum.

[CARLHAYDEN]

UPDATE 4-US shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend
Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:59pm EST
 

what does comparing year-over-year Black Friday numbers have to do with this thread?

You cited Reuters on a government report on consumer spending and I cited Reuters on a private agency report on consumer spending.

We already know that the preliminary government number on the third quarter was significantly overstated (its already been downgraded once).  

I like my source better.

but you're comparing year-over-year numbers, Einstein, of which I said NOTHING about, rather I cited month-over-month numbers.  And even the report you cited shows that overall spending INCREASED year-over-year...the only DECREASE was in the money spent per average shopper (down 8%) , but traffic INCREASED 13%, which made the 2009 Black Friday total > 2008 Black Friday total.  Get it?!

On an unrelated note - does someone sneak in very night and pee in your Cheerios?  Because you're one of the most negative posters on the forum.

You are really funny.

One month numbers seem important to year, but longer term developments tax your comprehension.

Do you remember late this summer when the highly adjusted unemployment numbers went down for one month?  Hmm.

Also, as I noted, the third quarter numbers have already been significantly adjusted downward once so far.

Now, more and more economic experts are anticipating a double-dip recession (in a seperate thread Soros noted that).  

Oh, and BTW, are you putting money in AIG?

I told you about them.

But perhaps the Fed will move to bail the out again (and again, and again, and again...).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Carl,

the only claims I made in this thread are 1) people I know have recently started to spend again on big ticket items, 2) the rise in October consumer spending mirrors the behavior of what I am seeing, and 3) I expect the trend to continue in the November numbers.


I am not dumb enough to compare those numbers year-over-year since the economy was in a 6% slide in the first half of that period.  The economy can be currently recovering but still be below last year's level....see picture I've drawn you below:


* Nov08
  *
   *
    *
     *           
      *           
       *         *Nov09
        *       *
           *  *
      time --->


hope this helps

[Sam Spade]

Knowing the area of the world jmfcst comes from quite well, I have always termed those from that area of the world, and thus his associates, "uppity white trash".  I do miss RenFest though - there's nothing anywhere near as good up here.

Your associates are spending at the wrong time again.  They should have been spending 12 months ago, or should be waiting now.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Knowing the area of the world jmfcst comes from quite well, I have always termed those from that area of the world, and thus his associates, "uppity white trash".  I do miss RenFest though - there's nothing anywhere near as good up here.

what "area" are you referring to?  If Magnolia, then know that I avoid going into Magnolia, and I would NOT consider it "uppity white trash", for there is nothing "uppity" about Magnolia.  And I wouldn't be caught dead at the RenFest....if you're talking about the area I now live in, 10 miles east of Magnolia, then the "trash" description hardly applies....if you're talking about the area I grew up in, South Park (not to be confused with the TV show) area of MLK, then there is nothing "uppity" or "white" about it.  

---

Your associates are spending at the wrong time again.  They should have been spending 12 months ago, or should be waiting now.

why spend 12 months ago and not now?  contractors are starving, so it is an ideal time for home improvement projects

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

My associates are starting to spend again...

here is a little confirmation...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

expect November to be even better

this is the consumer spending report, but it's closely related:

You must be logged in to read this quote.