2014 state legislature (general) elections

[greenforest32]

We had a good thread on the 2012 state legislature general elections so I figure one for 2014 would be interesting.

Any bets or insights on potential changes in control? Some notable flips that could happen in November 2014 are Republicans winning the Iowa state senate (would mean R-trifecta in 2015+ if they hold the Governorship and state house) and the West Virginia state house.

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For reference, the current partisan composition of state legislatures following the 2012, 2013 general elections*:

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote.aspx


*The Washington and New York state senates are controlled by Republicans due to several DINOs caucusing with them

[greenforest32]

There are 6 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia) that have a simple majority override for a Governor's veto as opposed to a 3/5 or 2/3 supermajority so, assuming they have majorities in the legislature, Republicans will effectively control Arkansas whether a Democrat wins the Governorship or not.

The same will be true in Kentucky if they win the the state house next year.

Of course the Governor can do things like executive orders, pardons, etc but when it comes to legislation they have little power in these 6 states.

See: http://thecabin.net/interact/editorials/2013-03-08/veto

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[greenforest32]

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/politics/as-another-democrat-defects-to-coalition-gop-prospects-brighten-in-state-senate-20140226

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[greenforest32]

http://wvpublic.org/post/delegate-switches-parties-run-state-senate

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[greenforest32]

http://wvmetronews.com/2014/05/13/do-republicans-have-a-realistic-chance-to-take-the-house/

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[greenforest32]

The following look like houses that could plausibly flip, just based on the closeness in composition and the number of seats up for election:

Oregon House 33-26 D
Oregon Senate 16-14 D

Oh yeah this was interesting too. One of the state newspapers here actually published a neat table/chart for Oregon's legislative seats that shows every senate and house districts' results for the 2012 Presidential election:

http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/2014/primary/maps/houserate/
http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/2014/primary/maps/senaterate/

It'd be nice to have that kind of data for every state.

[greenforest32]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day?  

I don't think we'll see that many flips in control. Even in the 2012 elections, only 8 states had switches in control compared to 2010. It'll probably be even less this year. I think the most likely one is Republicans winning the West Virginia state house. Past that and the same in the Kentucky state house, there's not many. If we see anything else, it will probably be:

* Nevada state senate flipping to Republicans (basing on the early voting numbers?)
* Iowa state senate flipping to Republicans? I have no idea about the background but turnout is low and Branstad will have a big margin of victory; both things working against Democrats' 1 seat-majority here.
* Maine legislature? - Republicans did unexpectedly win both chambers in 2010.

Is the IDC caucus in the NY state senate just going to disappear after November even though only 1 or 2 of them have chances of losing their seats this year? Doubtful.

Do any of the Washington posters have an idea as to what will happen in the state senate? Reading over Wikipedia, it looks like Democrats had a 26-23 majority until 2 of their members caucused with Republicans forming a 24D-23R+2 majority and then Republicans won a D-held senate seat in a special election bringing it to 23D-24R+2. Are those 2 DINOs and the aforementioned Republican in that special election seat likely to win reelection? Top-two basically got rid of the ability to primary them.

[greenforest32]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

Where are you getting these election results?

NCSL should have the results soon; they mapped the 2010 and 2012 outcome pretty good. It's hard to find the right page at the moment though. I think it's one of these two but the results aren't there yet:

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/statevote-2014-elections.aspx

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/statevote-2014-interactive-map-before-election.aspx

[greenforest32]

Results are nearly all in (waiting on Washington and Colorado at NCSL). Oregon wasn't too bad actually; Republicans lost two, maybe three, seats from some of their popular incumbents in Obama districts retiring. Democrats picked up 1 seat in the OR state house (now 35D-25R) and 1 (maybe 2 once counting is fully complete) in the OR state senate (now at least 17D-12R): http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/

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This means automatic voter registration could pass next year; the Oregon Secretary of State says she wants to try passing it again as, in 2013, it passed the state house but failed 15-15 in the state senate (then 16D-14R) when a Democrat sided with Republicans to vote against it. That bill could register hundreds of thousands of new voters.

On the other hand, I was expecting Republicans to win the Iowa state senate and then have a trifecta which would mean they'd be able to eliminate Iowa's same-day registration like they've done in other states (Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, etc). Surprised that it looks like Democrats held it.

[greenforest32]

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/statevote-2014-interactive-map-before-election.aspx

The results are in. Changes from the 2012 state legislative elections:

Legislature flips to Democrats (0) -
Legislature flips to Republicans (3) - Nevada (H, S), West Virginia (H, S), New Hampshire (H).
Legislature flips to split-control (6) - Washington (S), Colorado (S), New Mexico (H), Minnesota (H), New York (S), Maine (S).

All legislative chambers that flipped were because of Republican gains. The Virginia senate flipped from tied to Republicans earlier this year due to a special election so I didn't include that above since the chamber's general elections are in odd years with four-year intervals (2011, 2015, etc).

Projected post-2013/2014 elections partisan control map:



Relevant to opposite-party governors: Democrats have large enough majorities to override the gubernatorial veto in Massachusetts, Illinois, and Maryland (both IL and MD are 3/5 override rather than 2/3). The same is true for Republicans in Missouri and West Virginia.