Rod Blum campaign poll shows him up 16 points

[MT Treasurer]

CEDAR RAPIDS – With voting underway and fewer than six weeks until Election Day, a poll commissioned by U.S. Rep. Rod Blum’s campaign shows him with a growing lead in Iowa’s 1st District.

A Polling Company poll of 400 registered voters in the 20-county 1st District found the first-term Republican leading Democratic challenger Monica Vernon by 16-points, 52 percent to 36 percent. Seventy percent of the respondents were contacted vial landlines and 30 percent by cellphone. The margin of error is 4.9 percent.

Pollster Brett Loyd said Blum’s widening lead reflected his 48 percent job approval rating while 29 percent viewed Vernon favorably. Their unfavorable ratings were similar – 24 percent for Blum, 26 percent for Vernon

Link.

[Maxwell]

Trump surprisingly good in Iowa seems to improve Blum's chances.

ugh frustrating.

[windjammer]

This poll is obviously trash, even if Hillary loses Iowa, she's going to carry this district heavily.

[Heisenberg]

I think Blum overperforms Trump by about 6-8 points, which is enough to win. I think Clinton wins this district by only 3.

[Mr.Phips]

This makes me so mad at stupid Patrick Murphy, who blew this seat for Democrats in 2014.  Once Republucans pick up swing seats, they are very difficult to dislodge, unlike Democrats, who don't seem to know how to properly use the advantages of incumbency to get re-elected.  

[Heisenberg]

This makes me so mad at stupid Patrick Murphy, who blew this seat for Democrats in 2014.  Once Republucans pick up swing seats, they are very difficult to dislodge, unlike Democrats, who don't seem to know how to properly use the advantages of incumbency to get re-elected.  

If he won that would have meant two Democratic Congressmen named Patrick Murphy (from swing seats). There also used to be another one, from PA-08 not too long ago.

[Kingpoleon]

This makes me so mad at stupid Patrick Murphy, who blew this seat for Democrats in 2014.  Once Republucans pick up swing seats, they are very difficult to dislodge, unlike Democrats, who don't seem to know how to properly use the advantages of incumbency to get re-elected.  

If he won that would have meant two Democratic Congressmen named Patrick Murphy (from swing seats). There also used to be another one, from PA-08 not too long ago.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Murphy_(Pennsylvania_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Murphy_(Florida_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Murphy_(Iowa_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_O._Murphy (Massachusetts)

[Heisenberg]

This makes me so mad at stupid Patrick Murphy, who blew this seat for Democrats in 2014.  Once Republucans pick up swing seats, they are very difficult to dislodge, unlike Democrats, who don't seem to know how to properly use the advantages of incumbency to get re-elected.  

If he won that would have meant two Democratic Congressmen named Patrick Murphy (from swing seats). There also used to be another one, from PA-08 not too long ago.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Murphy_(Pennsylvania_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Murphy_(Florida_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Murphy_(Iowa_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_O._Murphy (Massachusetts)

Didn't know about the one in Massachusetts. Tsongas is 70, so she is on retirement watch. I expect her to serve out a few more terms, but when she retires, the 34-year old Massachusetts Patrick Murphy, who lost to her in a Demcratic primary may try again. If the four coexisted in Congress together, that would have been funny.

[Kingpoleon]

If Vernon loses, I expect Pat Murphy will run in 2018 or 2020.

Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania may run for Congress again, or he may remain Secretary of the Army/become Secretary of Defense.

[Heisenberg]

If Vernon loses, I expect Pat Murphy will run in 2018 or 2020.

Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania may run for Congress again, or he may remain Secretary of the Army/become Secretary of Defense.

I wouldn't mind the four Patrick Murphys coexist in Congress. That would be funny.

[Kingpoleon]

If Vernon loses, I expect Pat Murphy will run in 2018 or 2020.

Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania may run for Congress again, or he may remain Secretary of the Army/become Secretary of Defense.

Murphy from Pennsylvania's future definitely lies in the Pentagon; he's Under Secretary of the Army at just 42. A very plausible career path would be moving up to Deputy Secretary of Defense (IIRC, multiple DSoDs have taken this exact career path) and staying there for a few years before becoming Secretary of Defense. He could very well be SoD before age 50.

Even if Hillary loses in 2020, even twelve or eighteen months as Defense Secretary would set him up perfectly to run for office later.