Will the next decade really be bad for Dems?

[krazen1211]

Florida is supposed to have an "independent commission" for redistricting.  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means unbiased redistricting Dems are bound to pick up a few seats.  Right now Republicans control 19-6, and Florida is a near evenly split state.  In a perfect world the new delegation would be 14-13 GOP, but there are too many majority minority districts to do that.  Dems should be able to pick up at least a few seats here.

It's not an independent commission; its a set of guidelines. The lines are still drawn by legislators. The Democratic party of Florida unfortunately both stinks and has all its strength concentrated in a small number of areas; I doubt they get more than 2 seats.

[krazen1211]

Florida is supposed to have an "independent commission" for redistricting.  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means unbiased redistricting Dems are bound to pick up a few seats.  Right now Republicans control 19-6, and Florida is a near evenly split state.  In a perfect world the new delegation would be 14-13 GOP, but there are too many majority minority districts to do that.  Dems should be able to pick up at least a few seats here.

It's not an independent commission; its a set of guidelines. The lines are still drawn by legislators. The Democratic party of Florida unfortunately both stinks and has all its strength concentrated in a small number of areas; I doubt they get more than 2 seats.

Figures that the Republicans in the Republican controlled states get to control everything, meanwhile California Democrats are underrepresented on the redistricting commission.

Life isn't fair. In Florida's case, though, that doesn't matter much. Hard to imagine myself how the Democrats get anything more than Allen West's seat (Fl-22), Bill Young's seat (FL-10), and whatever new seat sucks up Orlando/Kissimee. Although they might lose FL-3, so that last is a wash; it really depends how the GOP handles Gainesville and splits Jacksonville/Duval.

[krazen1211]

well considering that registered democrats outnumber registered republicans in florida, it doesn't seem out of the question to pick up between anywhere between 3-7 seats.

Not out of the question, no, but not altogether that likely either.

All those Democrats sit in  Palm Beach/Broward Counties and a small other handful of areas.

Pairing Gainesville with some bloodred territory is a no brainer. Gainesville college wackos will nominate some uberleftist who won't be that competitive in any general election.