Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663
Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
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« on: March 24, 2007, 11:10:03 PM » |
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Much closer than 2004, but still way out of reach for the Democrats. There are a number of reasons for this, mostly having to do with Brian Schweitzer (although the lack of a populistesque candidate may hurt the Republicans in Montana as well). Schweitzer running for reelection should guarantee the Democrats around 43% of the vote, but most of the rest of the population will be near-impossible to convince. I estimate 55-45 unless things change considerably.
Obama would do much better than Clinton in Montana, and Edwards would do even better than Obama. Richardson would probably do at least as well as Edwards, possibly better due to his gun control stance. Richardson is the only potential Democratic candidate with a serious shot at Montana (but he'd win sweepingly against any Republican anyway, so it hardly matters).
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