Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL. But running for state SoS from the House of Representatives is a downgrade, isn't it? State AG would be a different story, but SoS? Anyways, Raffensberger is probably toast.

[Sir Mohamed]

I am getting impatient with Stacy Abrams, when is she getting nna to announce

Is our Queen alive?

Is it possible KLB runs in her place? That would explain the former not running 4 mayor again. Abrams may assume 2026 is a better opportunity than running a D-midterm. On the other hand, this could be a misscalcution if Biden wins reelection or Harris succeeds him. Either way 2026 would possibly be a worse midterm for Dems than 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

Finally it happened. Enthusiastically endorsed.

Abrams should hope this will be a rematch with Kemp, who may lose at least 2-3 pts. due to die hard Trump supporters unwilling to vote for him by either voting for her in protest or just don't vote in the gov race at all. Pure tossup or even Tilt D with Kemp. Perdue or Jones would be make it at least Tilt R in my opinion.

[Sir Mohamed]

Finally it happened. Enthusiastically endorsed.

Abrams should hope this will be a rematch with Kemp, who may lose at least 2-3 pts. due to die hard Trump supporters unwilling to vote for him by either voting for her in protest or just don't vote in the gov race at all. Pure tossup or even Tilt D with Kemp. Perdue or Jones would be make it at least Tilt R in my opinion.

That's funny tell another one!

They would have the Trump base; Kemp wouldn't. I don't think Kemp can make enough suburban gains to offset said losses.

[Sir Mohamed]

R primary will go to a Perdue vs. Kemp runoff, and the latter will obviously win. GE is Tilt R due to the national environment. Still the Dems best possible pickup beyond MA and MD.

Pretty funny that Kemp won in 2018 by (probably) stealing the election and now is going to lose in 2022 for being too soft on stealing elections

You know there hasn't been 1 poll with Abrams in it, don't underestimate the Rs in this race Biden and Warnock win it by 50 K votes against whom Kelly Loeffler lame

This race will take shape in Oct 22 the Rs have the edge now without VR AZ, GA are our weakest seats because of the 278 not 304 blue wall with PA, WI, MI and VA

Biden is at 46/52 Approvals and he won 304 50/45

Its still 304 map, election in 1000 days. OC love to be presumptuous and think Rs have the WH in the bag along with Election Guy

[Sir Mohamed]

Ehh I disagree as while Democrats picking up seats like NY/OH would be extremely predictable in early 2006 I dont think MD was. Elrich had pretty good approvals in Maryland and even right before election day O'Malley led by like 1 point:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/governor/md/maryland_governor_race-42.html

Id say if 2006 wasn't a Wave Elrich would have been reelected.

I wasn't saying that waves can't move things. They most certainly do. I agree that states like NY, OH, and MA were the low-hanging fruit. For MD, I think a neutral environment would've made the race a pure toss-up. However, you also have to factor in the natural environment of certain states. That said, Charlie Cook still had MD rated a toss-up at the end. My point with 2006 is that Democrats didn't do nearly as well as expected in terms of governorships. They came up short in Alaska, Minnesota, and Nevada, not to mention the Lean R seats.

True for sure, though statewide races were far less nationalized than they are today. Blue states like CT, CA and HI also reelected GOP govs in landslides that year. At the same time, Phil Bredesen and Dave Freudenthal won landslides in deep red states. Even 2010 was less polarizing; Mike Beebe won AR in a landslide with all counties.

[Sir Mohamed]

I can't imagine Perdue running a campaign on the rhetoric that won Dems the Georgia Senate Runoffs will do him any favors in the general. Kemp would be stronger in the ATL suburbs and would be more competitive against Abrams.

January 2021 was a much better environment for Democrats than November of 2022 will be. Plus, Perdue didn't lose by very much. He's going to win the primary and general election.

2014 was a much better environment for the GOP than 2012, but Perdue won by a smaller margin than Romney. 2020 was a worse environment for Democrats than 2018, but Biden won the state even though Abrams didn't.

Yup, exactly.

I might add that in 2020 Dems had an even better ground game and a stronger effort to turn voters out. This combined with with GA trends allowed Biden to archieve what Abrams couldn't just 2 years before. If the gubernatorial election was held in 2020, Abrams may very well have pulled it out.

2022 will be a big test whether Dem efforts on the ground and state's trend bear fruits.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1518370089476710401

Let's see it this way: The dude has nothing to lose, and once you were in public office, it's hard to let it go and find new purpose in life. Perdue is a sellout who only sees a way back to power by kissing the orange buffoon's - you-know-what.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, Trump got chucked. Kempslide and even Raffensberger avoids a runoff. Who would have thought? Maybe the Trump fever is finally broken, although that doesn't mean the GOP gets less insane now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Will Mr. Trump endorse Abrams now?

[Sir Mohamed]

Attorney General Chris Carr has told state Republicans that he plans to run for governor in 2026.

If Biden is still in the WH, he'd have a good shot, I guess? Even with Ossoff winning reelection.