2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Green Line]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

[2016]

I am hearing that ABC/WaPo & NBC NEWS will release GCB Polls this weekend and they will show R's up by a similar margin like the Monmouth Poll.

[wbrocks67]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

This isn't true, but okay.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

[2016]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

Thanks for pointing that out. You cannot buck trends & fundamentals alone with one Issue when all the other ones working against you. Every other Issue Abortion aside R's are leading.

[wbrocks67]

Under the hood, the differences are pretty stark from their last poll to now:

September - Men were R+18 (54-36) and Women D+10 (51-41)
Now - Men are R+9 (52-43) and Women R+1 (47-46)

September - White college+ were D+20 (58-38)
Now - White college+ is R+1 (49-48)

September - White non-college were R+30 (62-32)
Now - White non-college are R+22 (58-36)

Huh, what do we think accounts for a nine point shift --> D in the male vote? Actually come to think of it, what accounts for an eleven point shift --> in the female vote?

Just sampling variance, though the shifts in both are still really large.

[Holmes]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

[Tekken_Guy]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Sure ditch Biden. Harris will lose by more.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Sure ditch Biden. Harris will lose by more.

Read my username.

[Green Line]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

Low turnout special elections are not fundamentals.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

Low turnout special elections are not fundamentals.

They should be taken into account, however.

[Unelectable Bystander]

FWIW, that college educated white number was incredibly wrong. Biden won them 51-48 per CNN. It would take not only a neutral environment but almost a D wave to win them again.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

[wbrocks67]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

Low turnout special elections are not fundamentals.

They should be taken into account, however.

They were incredibly indicative in 2018, and they were also indicative in 2021 - NM-01 represented a good environment for Dems, Fall 2021 clearly represented a worse one for Dems.

[wbrocks67]

If y'all really want to believe that it's an R+6 environment, be my guest.

Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, etc. would not be competitive in that environment.

[Green Line]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

Low turnout special elections are not fundamentals.

They should be taken into account, however.

They were incredibly indicative in 2018, and they were also indicative in 2021 - NM-01 represented a good environment for Dems, Fall 2021 clearly represented a worse one for Dems.

Today I learned VA gov and NJ gov were low turnout special elections.. LOL.  Thanks for proving my point.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If y'all really want to believe that it's an R+6 environment, be my guest.

Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, etc. would not be competitive in that environment.

Where would the more fringe GOP targets fall?  

CO? NH?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

One must also consider though that the GOP has put forward no solutions to solving said cost of living issues.

[Gracile]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

Low turnout special elections are not fundamentals.

They should be taken into account, however.

They were incredibly indicative in 2018, and they were also indicative in 2021 - NM-01 represented a good environment for Dems, Fall 2021 clearly represented a worse one for Dems.

Today I learned VA gov and NJ gov were low turnout special elections.. LOL.  Thanks for proving my point.

I assume they're using a far-reaching definition where anything not in November of a nationwide general election year is a "special election."

[Devout Centrist]

Gas prices went up over the past two weeks or so. They are now going down.

See you all in two weeks.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gas prices went up over the past two weeks or so. They are now going down.

See you all in two weeks.

And inflation in other sectors is only getting worse.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

If y'all really want to believe that it's an R+6 environment, be my guest.

Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, etc. would not be competitive in that environment.

States don't swing uniformly with the national environment. There's a limit to elasticity. The best example is probably GA. The popular vote could be D+10 or R+10 and GA would likely be stuck between a 48-52% window for either party with the current coalitions in place. That said, I don't think it's R+6, at least not yet. Everything so far feels like R+2 but we obviously won't know until election day.

[Devout Centrist]

Gas prices went up over the past two weeks or so. They are now going down.

See you all in two weeks.

And inflation in other sectors is only getting worse.
[/quote]
gas prices are all people care about