Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm speachless.

31% in Quebec would get the NDP 36 seats.

Download my ElectoMatic and test this out yourself.

[MaxQue]

I'm speachless.

Well, imagine the head of Duceppe went he will hear that poll.

He will be speechless, I think. Well, it is his fault, he was too negative, I think.

[Smid]

NDP as official opposition plus a Tory majority would give the nation plenty of time (like, four years) to get used to the NDP as an alternative government.

[MaxQue]

Nanos. Again a big swing from the Liberals to the NDP, for the second day in row

Conservative	39.0%	-0.1
Liberal	26.7%	-1.7
NDP	22.1%	+2.3
BQ	7.5%	-0.2
Green	3.4%	-0.5

For the record, they have the NDP at 23% in Quebec, down from 2 from yesterday.

[Hash]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I am voting tomorrow at noon.

I'm actually debating voting NDP.

[MaxQue]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

It is not the NDP fault if Liberals are selecting inept leaders...

[Marokai Backbeat]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

Oh come on. If through any circumstance there ends up being a Conservative majority there is only one party to blame and it's the Liberals for being weak, directionless, inept, and utterly uninspiring.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

Oh please. Orleans is a safe Tory seat these days.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Also I finally got around to watching the english debate. I found it fairly interesting. Harper seems calm to an almost sociopath level, and Ignatieff seemed pretty good but only in a few moments, and incredibly arrogant in others. I don't understand why he thinks the sense of entitlement he assumes the Liberals have on government would make anyone more likely to vote for the Liberal Party. Layton seemed pretty good, but I'm biased of course.

Duceppe just sounded like a lunatic to me half the time, but that may just be because I'm not used to hearing separatists.

[Hash]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

Oh please. Orleans is a safe Tory seat these days.

We actually have a good candidate who actually cares about winning the seat, especially against a useless old yes-man geezer. Most people admit that if there's one race in Ottawa which is actually worth watching, it remains Orleans.

[Holmes]

If the Conservatives make gains in the Toronto suburbs and are mostly unaffected by the NDP surge in Quebec... that would suck.

Can the NDP gain seats in Nova Scotia? They had a great year there in 2009.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bizarre, yet rather pleasing.

Regarding comparisons with the LibDem surge over here last year, one important difference is that the sudden spike in LibDem poll ratings happened (more or less) over a single weekend after the first televised debate, and not incrementally. It's fairly clear in retrospect that it was mostly the consequence of the collective incompetence of the polling industry; they were (and still are) basing their work off essentially useless statistics (including - ah, a pet hate - a model of occupation groups from the 1970s that wasn't even much use during the 1970s and which has no relationship to the reality of work in Britain in 2010) and dangerously crude assumptions about electoral motivation, turnout and so on.

Of course that doesn't make this 'real'. It's just that the chances of it being unreal are lower than the obvious cautionary tale.

[Hash]

If the Conservatives make gains in the Toronto suburbs and are mostly unaffected by the NDP surge in Quebec... that would suck.

Exactly. If the NDP's vote increases everywhere, even where they're weak they'll only serve to split the non-Purgatory vote and allow them to be reelected or gain seats. And, that, my friends, wouldn't be good. If the NDP can gain seats off the Purgs, then all the power to them but if they use to split the vote and elect more Purgs they can go DIAF.

[MaxQue]

If the Conservatives make gains in the Toronto suburbs and are mostly unaffected by the NDP surge in Quebec... that would suck.

Exactly. If the NDP's vote increases everywhere, even where they're weak they'll only serve to split the non-Purgatory vote and allow them to be reelected or gain seats. And, that, my friends, wouldn't be good. If the NDP can gain seats off the Purgs, then all the power to them but if they use to split the vote and elect more Purgs they can go DIAF.

Well, I don't see NDP saying to its voters "Vote Liberal to not split the anti-Tory vote". Neither I see the Liberals doing that, either.

Our electoral system is bad, don't blame NDP for it (they were never in power), blame Liberals and Conservatives.

[Holmes]

It's not a terrible electoral system, it's the mindset of Canadians that it's either Liberals or Conservatives, and that's it. If the NDP makes big gains in this election at the cost of a Conservative majority, but they start to become a more viable option, then that's a net plus imo. I mean, Harper already does what he wants already anyway, even in the minority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saying that, weren't ADQ leading for parts of that election in Quebec?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Saying that, weren't ADQ leading for parts of that election in Quebec?

No.
The ADQ outperformed the polls by a good margin.
The polls had the ADQ sitting on 25 seats, and that was the "huge story"
They ended up with 41.

[Leftbehind]

It's not a terrible electoral system, it's the mindset of Canadians that it's either Liberals or Conservatives, and that's it.

But FPTP leads to that mindset? I remember seeing a poll before last year's UK election showing a majority of the population would vote Lib Dem but they felt it was a waste of time.

This video neatly shows how FPTP encourages two party systems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saying that, weren't ADQ leading for parts of that election in Quebec?

No.
The ADQ outperformed the polls by a good margin.
The polls had the ADQ sitting on 25 seats, and that was the "huge story"
They ended up with 41.

Ah, perhaps I'm confusing 'my fears' with 'the polls'. But examples of past poll surges in Canada, anyone?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But FPTP leads to that mindset? I remember seeing a poll before last year's UK election showing a majority of the population would vote Lib Dem but they felt it was a waste of time.

That was a laughably loaded question though. Not the first time they tried it either.

[Leftbehind]

Meh, I can't remember it now, but it didn't seem that unbelievable at the height of Cleggmania. Point stands though, FPTP's spoiler effect helps discourage people from voting who they'd prefer.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Saying that, weren't ADQ leading for parts of that election in Quebec?

No.
The ADQ outperformed the polls by a good margin.
The polls had the ADQ sitting on 25 seats, and that was the "huge story"
They ended up with 41.

Ah, perhaps I'm confusing 'my fears' with 'the polls'. But examples of past poll surges in Canada, anyone?

1988. Federal.
Pre Debate, the PC party had like 45% and the Liberals like 25%
Post Debate the Liberals had 45%
It was what knocked the NDP out of contention (I have an interesting what if on this btw)

2006. Federal.
The Tories went from about 10% to 20% in Quebec polls, and from 0 to 10 seats in the province on election day.

That's all I can think of off hand.

[big bad fab]

If the Conservatives make gains in the Toronto suburbs and are mostly unaffected by the NDP surge in Quebec... that would suck.

Exactly. If the NDP's vote increases everywhere, even where they're weak they'll only serve to split the non-Purgatory vote and allow them to be reelected or gain seats. And, that, my friends, wouldn't be good. If the NDP can gain seats off the Purgs, then all the power to them but if they use to split the vote and elect more Purgs they can go DIAF.

Let's have French majority system in Canada and 40% would be just that. And you could be pleased with a coalition Liberals-NDP.
Let's extradite Marleix to Ottawa .

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also a note.

In 2006 the CPC (Tories) jumped threefold (In Quebec). They took about three times as many votes in 2006 as they did in 2004. My mathematical projection method successfully projected that this meant they would win 10 seats. Other projection websites are nervous because the NDP now has seen a threefold jump in Quebec...

My projection program is free for download
http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/
On the right hand side. ElectoMatic.