ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 02, 2024, 06:38:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 38904 times)
JJC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446


« on: October 29, 2016, 01:06:53 PM »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.
Logged
JJC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446


« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 01:20:05 PM »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

Huh I suggest you go look at the early vote thread with actual facts before you spew innuendo.

Okay.

Overall State – Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/24) of 10/27

◊ MAIL: 46,235 (+9,874 from 10/26) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/26 {+2.9% Lead up from 2.5% on 10/26 (+0.4%)}

Voted-by-Mail (Returned)

♦ Rep: 677,907 (+71,763 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 631,672 (+61,889 from 10/26)
Other: 40,982 (+3,972 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 258,824 (+29,338 from 10/26)
Total Returned: 1,609,385 (+166,962 from 10/26)

#Trump(Rep): 42.1% (+0.1% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 39.2% (-0.3% from 10/26)
Other: 2.5% (-0.1% from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 16.1% (+0.2% from 10/26)

◊ EARLY VOTE : 34,510 (+3,879 from 10/26) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/26 (+4.0% Lead down from 5.2% on 10/26 {-1.2%})

Early Voting (Only)

♦ Rep: 336,299 (+110,337 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 370,809 (+114,216 from 10/26)
Other: 20,052 (+6,522 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 136,899 (+47,626 from 10/26)
Total Voted: 864,059 (+278,701 from 10/26)

#Trump(Rep): 38.9% (+0.3% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 42.9% (-0.9% from 10/26)
Other: 2.3% (same from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 15.8% (+0.5% from 10/26)

NOTE: 16 Counties don’t start Early Voting until Saturday, October 29th. I looked at the Vote-by-Mail (Returned) for each County where the voting begins on the 29th and they had the following distribution:

#Trump(Rep): 40,748
#HRC(Dem): 30,304
Other: 2,888
No Part Affiliation: 12,082

Dade County:

◊ 2016 General Mail-in-Ballots

♦ Republicans – 60,694
♦ Democrats – 72,162
Other – 1,987
Independents – 34,404
Total Returned – 169,247

◊ 2016 General Early Voting

♦ Republicans – 29,441
♦ Democrats – 51,336
Other – 1,282
Independents – 21,158
Total Voted – 103,217

2012 Election Results Miami-Dade County

B. Obama (i) Dem – 61.6% Total Votes – 540,776
M. Romney GOP – 37.9% Total Votes – 332,602
G. Johnson Lib – 0.3% Total Votes – 2,270
J. Stein Grn – 0.1% Total Votes – 606

Hillary at 55.3% is doing 6 points worse than Obama did in 2012 at 61.6%.  Meanwhile Trump at 44.7% is doing 7 points better than Romney did in 2012 with 37.9%.

NC

2016 – D 46%, R 29%, I 25% (we are BEATING the spread from 2012 {Romney won the state by 2.5 points})
2012 – D 47%, R 29%, I 21%

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/27/update-florida-and-north-carolina-early-voteballot-data-show-advantages-for-donald-trump/
Logged
JJC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446


« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 11:03:40 AM »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Well it was never a 12 point race to begin with.

Honestly the polls have been so chaotic that I'm at the point of just ignoring them completely. It's all about which poll can correctly predict how the turnout on election day will look like. And I don't think anyone has a clue.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.019 seconds with 10 queries.