2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Central Lake]

I would like leadership candidates to talk about their general election strategy and plans to add to the Conservative vote pool. Which is at 33%-34% in the last two elections.

However, I really prefer when leadership candidates explain this in terms of demography and geography and really dislike it when they make their case by invoking a political spectrum or a time spectrum.

For example if Jean Charest said CPC currently has 10 seats in Quebec and I can get 20 seats in Quebec by appealing to so and so, I am willing to hear me about. But if Jean Charest said I will win additional seats because I am moderate, or I will appeal to moderates, I am ignoring him.

Another example is John Tory saying I won the Toronto mayoral race so I can win additional seats in the GTA. Or if Doug Ford said I won seats in the GTA provincially so I can win GTA seats federally. These are just hypotheticals on my part but I hope I am communicating my point.

Whenever people say moderates, modernize, or the center, I am very unimpressed. I also find it irritating.

[Central Lake]

As for what laddicus finch was saying about Charest and Doug Ford in the GTA. As someone who lives there I think the issues that are the most important and the CPC should focus on are:

1. Public transit infrastructure
2. Cost of Housing
3. General Affordability and cost of living

Not that it is guaranteed to win votes but I think it is the best approach.

[Central Lake]

https://twitter.com/SyntheticPol/status/1493872944501559300?cxt=HHwWiMCoyebhprsp...
This map of ridings that gets CPC to 150 with minimal gains in the GTA.

[Central Lake]

https://twitter.com/SyntheticPol/status/1493872944501559300?cxt=HHwWiMCoyebhprsp...
This map of ridings that gets CPC to 150 with minimal gains in the GTA.

143-137 is a very small margin to be targeting though. Short of winning over rural Quebec, this strategy would be a difficult one to pull off, and impossible to win a majority.

Oh, maybe I should have clarified to ignore the tweet at the bottom about path to power.
Certainly not the only strategy and ridings the CPC should be targeting. They should do this in conjunction with other strategies. Personally, I think they combine this with a "Ford nation' effect in Toronto and Vancouver.

However, I think the strategy above in the map should be priority No.1. It is a good starting point. It is probably the path of least resistance in winning more seats. Also, I think Conservative supporters will be more comfortable pursuing this kind of strategy than a Oakville/Burlington strategy. (white upper middle class areas)

[Central Lake]

Yeah, personally, I think outside of wave elections, Halton Region is pretty much gone for the Conservatives.

[Central Lake]

If you watch 44:00-44:36 in the video.

Are whites in Ajax traditionally composed of WASPs?

[Central Lake]

There was a newspaper article suggesting a new party could be formed of conservatives more centrist and Liberals. I don't know how big blue Liberals represent. It could be people who would feel comfotrable with the old Progressive Conservative party who are now Liberals because they don't like the new Conservative party for its style or positions.

My own political views are such that I would love to see a "blue Liberal-red Tory" kind of party. More fiscally conservative and hesitant about sweeping government programs or overreach, but socially on the progressive side of things and wary of MAGA-type elements. Unfortunately, I don't think there's much appetite for this kind of politics, at least not enough to upset the existing political battle lines. A conservative coalition in Canada necessarily includes some pretty hard-right elements, if you went further left than O'Toole I think the PPC would really cause some damage.

And the Liberals have all but abandoned "blue liberalism". I'm sure some still exist, including in the government caucus, but they're clearly comfortable enough with Trudeau and Freeland who have not governed as blue liberals. Pre-Trudeau blues like Scott Brison, Bill Casey and Ralph Goodale are gone, and Bill Morneau was allegedly removed for not backing the kind of spending Trudeau wanted.

And on the right, of course, look at all the energy behind Poilievre. The least right-wing of the five permanent and interim leaders the CPC has had, O'Toole, was also the one who had the most internal opposition. Let's not forget that prior to the CPC being founded, Reform/Alliance had already replaced the PCs as the dominant party of the right.

O'Toole seemed to do well until he was on the defensive on gun policy and vaccines. Someone like Charest could make it easier for voters looking for change but not extreme. But it probably wouldn't work if a big part of the party is not happy and shoot from the inside. Charest is good at campaign, good at debate and good at attacking opponents. Ontario is the most important and I admit I don't know what would work best there.

It's still an open question whether that early election bump was people liking O'Toole or just being angry at Trudeau for calling it in the first place. There's probably some truth to both explanations. O'Toole and his allies have argued that the final collapse came down to the Delta Wave and re-focusing on the pandemic/vaccines, while his opponents to the right have argued that his flip-flopping on key issues demotivated CPC voters - again, probably some truth in both narratives.

I think O'Toole's defensiveness certainly hurt him. There's a difference between a moderate tory who passionately speaks for his principles versus a moderate tory who is desperate to show that he's not a big bad right-winger. O'Toole started the campaign as the former but ended it as the latter, and that kind of apologetic defensiveness exudes weakness, which is not what people want in a leader.

I don't know much about Charest, but I do think O'Toole's demise has confirmed a pre-existing view among many right-wingers that moderation is not the key to power, so he will have a tough time convincing them otherwise.

It's strange that so far only one person is running. I guess many putchists were ready with Poilievre. I don't know when the rules for the leadership will be announced, maybe others will declare interest then.

I think it's because anyone with an interest in the job not named Pierre Poilievre knows that they're likely to lose. By and large, the base likes Poilievre, and he has a lot of name recognition.

Sorry I am new to the site and don't know how to quote sections of a post. But I remember you creating a thread of a scenario of proportional representation where there were like six political parties. I was thinking of a scenario under the current FPTP system where there are three major political parties.

So imagine the LPC and NDP merge into a party dominated by progressives. We can call that Party A. Liberals unhappy with the merged party stay out. These unhappy Liberals create a new party with Conservatives who want a progressive conservative party. Think Kelly McParland, Globe and Mail writers. We can call this Party B. Then the remaining Conservatives take NDP voters unhappy with the merged party into the fold. Conservatives also bring Liberals unhappy with Party A and Party B into the fold. We can call this Party C.
Then we have a scenario in loose terms:

Party A: Progressive, Culturally Liberal and Economically Liberal
Party B: Culturally Liberal, Economically Conservative
Party C: Culturally Conservative, mix of Economically Right and Left, Populist

[Central Lake]

Are the Tasha/Charest people more likely to mark their ballots

4. Pierre Poilievre
5. Leslyn Lewis

Or
4. Leslyn Lewis
5. Pierre Poilievre

[Central Lake]

I might be projecting my views on others but I think in both Canada and the United States there is a gulf between grassroots conservatives and establishment conservatives when it comes to

right wing economics
natural security, foreign intervention, strong military
law and order, tough on crime

And as for law and order, and tough on crime, it is not just in context of the Freedom Convoy but in general and before 2022.

[Central Lake]

Just some advice or rule of thumb. Candidates in a conservative leadership race who utter the word moderate or say modern or modernize besides in the context of technology, or clothing fashion will be in big big trouble.

Jean Charest has many things going against him (guns carbon pricing etc.) But one thing going  in his favour is that from recent reports I have read he hasn't publicly implied or insinuated that ..... (some will disagree with my phrasing here) that current Conservative party supporters and voters are a problem, liability and are responsible for the general election defeats of 2019 and 2020.

Charest said "to have a national conservative party that is able to represent every part of Canada .. that is our responsibility to be that national political party' So it is kind of a vague statement and leaning onto geography.

My mind works in such a way that I was like every part of Canada could mean every province, so P.EI. is the only province with no conservative riding so a big priority is to win a riding in P.EI. /s

[Central Lake]

People on the Charest team deny a pact with Patrick Brown.

Hypothetically in a general election where would Charest run. Sherbrooke? a Quebec City area riding?

[Central Lake]

For picking up additional support and seats, urban - rural trends/ metropolitan - non-metropolitans trends I wanted to discuss Franco Canadians outside of Quebec. I moved to Canada at age 11 from Sri Lanka in 2011 so my knowledge of historical political patterns is quite limited. However, from my limited knowledge, I understand Tories and French Canadians historically have a very poor relationship.

Today French Canadians outside of Quebec are strongly attached to the Liberal party. How realistic is it for Conservatives to gain among rural French speaking Canadians outside of Quebec? We have seen instances of demographics strongly attached to a left-leaning party suddenly swing to a right-leaning party catching many by surprise. Such as the Red Wall in the UK going from Labour to the Tories. Such as the rural Rio Grande Valley going from Democrat to Republican.

So where would you place (more rural) LPC voting French Canadians outside of Quebec
1. Franco-Canadians are culturally progressive like rural Vermont, rural Massachusetts and it is implausible for them ever voting Conservative.
2. Franco-Canadians are strongly attached to the LPC and it is implausible for them to ever vote Conservative.
3. Franco-Canadians are strongly attached to the LPC and they swinging right is only possible after twenty years from now.
4. With a lot of effort Franco-Canadians may swing right within the next five years.

[Central Lake]

Franco Ontarians are no monolith.

Rural Francos in GPR are certainly more socially conservative, and will vote Tory when the Liberals are weak, but usually do vote Liberal.

Francos in Orleans almost entirely work for the government, so are a fairly consistent Liberal voting bloc

Francos in Ottawa-Vanier are more working class or are students, and are more amenable to voting NDP. OV is a fairly diverse place too, and its Franco population is no exception. You have UOttawa students in Sandy Hill (very progressive), old working class Francos in Lower Town and Vanier proper, and French speaking immigrants in some of the projects east of Vanier (Carson Meadows and Cryville areas) from places like West Africa and Haiti.

And then you have Francos in Northern Ontario that often vote NDP or Liberal. You have some places like Hearst (very French) that always vote Liberal though, but then you have the Sudbury suburbs that often vote NDP.

Thanks Hatman. I was thinking along the lines of what adma described as incremental sufficient numbers. Grand Lake Miramichi is one riding where increasing the Conservative vote percentage among Franco-Canadians would be useful for holding the riding in the next election.

How would you characterize the possibility of increasing Conservative vote share among Franco-Canadians in Glengarry Prescott Russell and Northern Ontario. I am assuming it would be easier among rural Franco-Canadians.

[Central Lake]

https://twitter.com/SyntheticPol/status/1493872944501559300?cxt=HHwWiMCoyebhprsp...

Not so much the topline but the type of ridings that some CPC supporters want to/ think they can flip.

[Central Lake]

Northern Ontario generally swung towards the Conservatives. Kenora which was a CON hold went from 34% Conservative in 2019 to 42% Conservative in 2021. To flip some of the NDP held ridings in Northern Ontario to the Conservatives, will probably entail a combination of strategies.

1. conventional WWC appeals
2. retaining O'Toole's blue collar strategy/adapting some things of Monte McNaughton
3. making overtures to the mining, forestry sectors?
4. do outreach and try to move needle in Indigenous communities
5. try to increase the CON vote share among Franco Canadians.

At least this is what I think.

[Central Lake]

There aren't enough Francophone ridings outside of Quebec to really make a big difference.  But on balance they lean Liberal but they are not monolithic. 

In New Brunswick, Beausejour and Acadie-Bathurst are solidly Liberal but Madawaska-Restigouche can go Conservative under right leader but more often than not goes Liberal.  Latter two have a lot of seasonal workers and high unemployment so probably why Tories did poorly there, but considering how strong a second place Scheer and O'Toole had in Cape Breton Island and Rural Newfoundland which are similar economically, maybe there is some potential, but probably not worth wasting a lot of resources on those two.

In Ontario, its a mix.  Ottawa-Vanier is pretty solidly Liberal but NDP has some pockets of support.  Orleans did go Liberal under Harper, but I believe since then has swung hard towards Liberals as more civil servants living there so probably out of reach.  Northern Ontario is Liberal/NDP mix, but Tories did do better than normal so may have some potential with a blue collar strategy.

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell tends to go Tory win they win as its largely rural but Liberals do much better there than in other rural ridings in Ontario so yes is winnable but much tougher than most rural ridings which they usually have a lock on.  Since 2000, both federally and provincially, its always backed the winner and last time it went for losing candidate at either level was 1999 provincial and back then urban/rural divide wasn't as strong as it is today as PCs won many GTA seats now out of reach and likewise Liberals were still strong in rural Southwestern Ontario, which is now their worst region. 

Which two ridings are you referring to here?

[Central Lake]

As a Sri Lankan born person I will say that while visible minorities are by no means monolithically socially conservative, especially in CPC/OPC circles there is a strong overlap between minorities and socons.

Brown burnt all his bridges with social conservatives with sex-ed and other things he did. Therefore, it would be very difficult almost impossible for Patrick Brown replicate his 2015 leadership surprise win.

[Central Lake]

As a Sri Lankan born person I will say that while visible minorities are by no means monolithically socially conservative, especially in CPC/OPC circles there is a strong overlap between minorities and socons.

Brown burnt all his bridges with social conservatives with sex-ed and other things he did. Therefore, it would be very difficult almost impossible for Patrick Brown replicate his 2015 leadership surprise win.

His strategy with visible minorities this time around isn't so much appealing to their often socially conservative views, just more generally networking and addressing niche concerns that you rarely see white politicians do. I mentioned it earlier in this thread, among his promises are things like increasing funding for cricket in Canada and establishing a permanent embassy in Nepal. Like, very specific concerns that bear little relevance to the CPC leadership. I don't know enough about visible minority/immigrant communities (really, South Asians as that seems to be the bulk of his strategy) to know how effective it would be, but this isn't 2015 Patrick Brown

That is something I can very much get on board with.

[Central Lake]

Also I will go against conventional political discourse and say that I do not think it is possible for an individual to expand the base. Usually a party leader cannot change the party coalition in a meaningful way expect in specific circumstances.

One such circumstance is the party leader being a mayor, premier, or brother of  a mayor. For example Doug Ford or the mayor of Barrie in the 2022 Ontario provincial election.

"Expanding the base" or touching 40% in the popular vote needs to be a collective effort of CPC supporters.