2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

We have our first random bid

RIP Deepak Obhrai

[King of Kensington]

Or maybe what Charest means is that a national conservative party cannot keep writing off urban Canada. The vast majority of Canadians live in cities and right now the Tories have ZERO seats in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, almost nothing in Winnipeg, Ottawa, Hamilton, Halifax, are losing ground in Edmonton and have only a couple of very exurban seats on the fringes of the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver Areas. I can remember when the federal Tories were able to win seats in the middle of Toronto. maybe they need to figure out how to do that again.   

I grew up in St. Paul's where they elected a PC MP in the 1980s.  Since 1993 it's been a Liberal fortress and it's inconceivable to imagine them winning there now.  St. Paul's and University-Rosedale are pretty much the "Brahmin-liberal" capitals of Canada.

[RogueBeaver]

Scheer endorses Poilievre. Charest might be tag-teaming with his mentee Patrick Brown, who was already sparring with Poilievre when they were student politicians in the Chrétien era.

https://twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1499812524786552836

[DL]

While its tempting to see Brown as some sort of stalking horse for Charest - keep in mind that apparently if Brown runs he will position himself as an implacable opponent of Quebec's Bill 21 that attacks Muslims. Needless to Charest will take the exact opposite position on that issue.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Scheer endorses Poilievre. Charest might be tag-teaming with his mentee Patrick Brown, who was already sparring with Poilievre when they were student politicians in the Chrétien era.

https://twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1499812524786552836

It won't be good for the health of the party if this race ends up hashing out old PC-Reform rivalries. The whole purpose of the CPC was to avoid this sort of thing.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

While its tempting to see Brown as some sort of stalking horse for Charest - keep in mind that apparently if Brown runs he will position himself as an implacable opponent of Quebec's Bill 21 that attacks Muslims. Needless to Charest will take the exact opposite position on that issue.

True, but I would be very surprised if Bill 21 becomes a major issue in the race. No federal party other than the Bloc wants to talk about Bill 21 any more than necessary. Brown might try to make it a wedge to attract ethnic and religious voters, but clearly a much bigger issue at play is the identity of the party, and opinions on Quebec's draconian culture rules isn't really an animating thing for most Tories.

[Poirot]

While its tempting to see Brown as some sort of stalking horse for Charest - keep in mind that apparently if Brown runs he will position himself as an implacable opponent of Quebec's Bill 21 that attacks Muslims. Needless to Charest will take the exact opposite position on that issue.

I doubt Charest would be pro bill 21. He set up the Bouchard Taylor commission on reasonable accomodation which proposed banning wearing religious symbols for jobs representing coercitive authority like judges, police. He refused to act on this while there would have been a consensus for it, it was very limited.

Maybe he could take the position of being against it and will see what courts says about it. I don't remember what Charest said about the issue but his son said: individual freedoms are not a negotiable issue.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

While its tempting to see Brown as some sort of stalking horse for Charest - keep in mind that apparently if Brown runs he will position himself as an implacable opponent of Quebec's Bill 21 that attacks Muslims. Needless to Charest will take the exact opposite position on that issue.

I doubt Charest would be pro bill 21. He set up the Bouchard Taylor commission on reasonable accomodation which proposed banning wearing religious symbols for jobs representing coercitive authority like judges, police. He refused to act on this while there would have been a consensus for it, it was very limited.

Maybe he could take the position of being against it and will see what courts says about it. I don't remember what Charest said about the issue but his son said: individual freedoms are not a negotiable issue.

That may be the case, but I think Charest will still avoid taking too firm a stance on it, as will Poilievre. Brown will probably make it a big thing as it's a part of his brand, and Lewis might too on the grounds of religious freedom. I don't think any Tory candidate would take a firm pro-Bill-21 stance, but Charest and Poilievre will be hesitant about speaking out on an issue that puts them offside with the majority of Quebec

[MaxQue]

Tasha is not running, endorses Charest.

https://nationalpost.com/news/tasha-kheiriddin-wont-be-running-for-cpc-leadership-will-support-jean-charest-instead

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/drainvillepm/status/1500978883117690888

[Benjamin Frank]

Mark Strahl has endorsed Pierre Polievre.  I might have thought he would have endorsed Leslyn Lewis.

[Oppo]

Kheiriddin endorses Charest

https://twitter.com/tashakheiriddin/status/1500979193370324999?s=21

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CBCNews/status/1501211392153690123

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/abbas_rana1/status/1501239927207604226

https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1501226594723332099

[DC Al Fine]

I just got an "I'm running" email from Lewis' campaign.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/abbas_rana1/status/1501239927207604226
https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1501226594723332099

The Abacus poll is pretty telling. Among current CPC supporters, Poilievre (among those who are familiar with him) is pretty popular, or at least not unpopular. The "negative'" responses for Poilievre are barely higher than Brown and Lewis, who have much lower name recognition, while Charest is as well-known and seen twice as unfavourably as Poilievre.

Current Conservative supporters like Poilievre. If the anti-PP wing's plan to win is to sign up new members, Charest and Brown will have to do pretty spectacularly on that front.

[Poirot]

A Léger poll  that is not great news for Charest if he wants to play the electabilty, winnability card.

With Charest as leader, voting intentions are:
LPC 33
CPC 28
NDP 20
BQ 8
PPC 7
Green 3

With Poilievre:

LPC 34
CPC 30
NDP 21
BQ 8
PPC 3
Green 3

With Charest PPC is up and CPC lower. It will be interesting to see regional numbers when the details are published.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest and Brown will be explicitly allied with a preference deal and non-aggression pact, as befits mentor and mentee.

[Continential]

I have a question, how could Brown get to the final round without Charest flopping and Lewis/Poilievre underperforming?

[Benjamin Frank]

Charest and Brown will be explicitly allied with a preference deal and non-aggression pact, as befits mentor and mentee.

Somebody needs to post a photoshopped picture of Charest and Brown wearing tag team wrestling outfits.

[Benjamin Frank]

I have a question, how could Brown get to the final round without Charest flopping and Lewis/Poilievre underperforming?

If Brown overperforms in the GTA, that is 52 ridings.

In regards to the Patrick Brown scandal, it seems he's been mostly cleared and CTV has admitted that its sensational reports were factually wrong in a number of areas. (There are still some serious allegations that he denies but the women in question stand by.)

https://thepointer.com/article/2022-03-09/ctv-regrets-errors-in-report-that-led-to-ouster-of-patrick-brown-as-pc-leader-questions-still-loom-over-allegations-that-remain-in-publicly-available-stories

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A Léger poll  that is not great news for Charest if he wants to play the electabilty, winnability card.

With Charest as leader, voting intentions are:
LPC 33
CPC 28
NDP 20
BQ 8
PPC 7
Green 3

With Poilievre:

LPC 34
CPC 30
NDP 21
BQ 8
PPC 3
Green 3

With Charest PPC is up and CPC lower. It will be interesting to see regional numbers when the details are published.

Tbh the differences are too small there to really make a significant difference. I guess the only thing we can say for sure is that a Poilievre leadership boosts Liberal turnout (and NDP in this poll, but we all know who benefits from the ABC phenomenon), while a Charest leadership drives more Tories to the PPC.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I have a question, how could Brown get to the final round without Charest flopping and Lewis/Poilievre underperforming?

If Brown's strength in signing up new members is all it's cracked up to be. He did get over 60% against Christine Elliott in the Ontario PC leadership despite always being seen as an underdog.

The point system and his geographic appeal might limit this though. The crucial question is: can Brown expand his turnout game beyond the golden horseshoe?

[RogueBeaver]

Charest said he opposes Bill 21 and wants to intervene against it at the Supreme Court, which is Brown's position and could cause the Quebec caucus to quit. Did not expect that. Poilievre's view, at least 2 years ago, was personal opposition but Quebec has the right to pass it and he wouldn't support a court challenge.

[DC Al Fine]

I have a question, how could Brown get to the final round without Charest flopping and Lewis/Poilievre underperforming?

If Brown's strength in signing up new members is all it's cracked up to be. He did get over 60% against Christine Elliott in the Ontario PC leadership despite always being seen as an underdog.

The point system and his geographic appeal might limit this though. The crucial question is: can Brown expand his turnout game beyond the golden horseshoe?

One issue for Brown is that last time he was running as a right wing so-connish challenger to Christine Elliott. He's burnt his bridges with the socons, and now he's runnig to the left of the frontrunner. I fully expect him to do well at signing up members but those are some significant headwinds.