Well, let's talk about the 2018 senate elections

[windjammer]

What will happen now with President Trump???

[Vega]

Democrats can only hope to net hold, and even if they win everything that they won in 2012, and Trump  is historically unpopular, they only really have 2 viable seats they can win (Nevada and Arizona).

[windjammer]

Considering the only plausible pickups for Democrats are AZ and NV, they will almost certainly hold the Senate in 2018.

Yes I think so too.

But I wonder how many seats democrats could hold, I used to believe Manchin would lose, not anymore.

[windjammer]

Considering the only plausible pickups for Democrats are AZ and NV, they will almost certainly hold the Senate in 2018.

Yes I think so too.

But I wonder how many seats democrats could hold, I used to believe Manchin would lose, not anymore.

Donnelly and McCaskill should lose unless Trump is very unpopular. The other Democrats are probably slightly favored, though.

Yes I agree with that too, but seriously, how could he be popular?

[publicunofficial]

Considering the only plausible pickups for Democrats are AZ and NV, they will almost certainly hold the Senate in 2018.

Yes I think so too.

But I wonder how many seats democrats could hold, I used to believe Manchin would lose, not anymore.

Donnelly and McCaskill should lose unless Trump is very unpopular. The other Democrats are probably slightly favored, though.

Yes I agree with that too, but seriously, how could he be popular?

How could Trump win election?

[windjammer]

Considering the only plausible pickups for Democrats are AZ and NV, they will almost certainly hold the Senate in 2018.

Yes I think so too.

But I wonder how many seats democrats could hold, I used to believe Manchin would lose, not anymore.

Donnelly and McCaskill should lose unless Trump is very unpopular. The other Democrats are probably slightly favored, though.

Yes I agree with that too, but seriously, how could he be popular?

How could Trump win election?

Fair point

[Xing]

Republicans will hold the Senate, but won't make anything like the massive gains that we thought were possible under Clinton. Heller's a goner, and Flake is definitely in trouble.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Heller's gone, Flake could be vulnerable Donnelly and Manchin, still not sure about mcCaskill though

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It's worth noting that FOX said tonight that Manchin implied that he is considering switching parties

[Kingpoleon]

ND, MO, and IN are the most vulnerable.

[Kingpoleon]

Senate:
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI
Likely D: FL, MT, OH, WV
Lean D: AZ*, IN, MO, NV*, ND, VA
Tossup:  TX*
Lean R: MS*, UT*

*Assumes Trumpist/Tea Party/other major primary challenge

[Heisenberg]

It's worth noting that FOX said tonight that Manchin implied that he is considering switching parties

Can't see it happening, especially if McConnell stays Senate Republican Leader. I hear the two really hate each other as people (IIRC it has to do with college football rivalries). If, say John Thune replaces McConnell, maybe he could become an Independent and caucus with Thune, but the people of West Virginia are used to him being a Democrat. He is very pro-life and pro-coal, but he still endorsed Clinton.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill 2018 will be interesting.

I can not imagine Trump being popular, and imagine 2018 may lean Democratic. Also, McCaskill is a good campaigner.

Though, on the other hand, the shift to the Republicans has been a long but obvious one. So too early to make any guess on this race.

[BuckeyeNut]

It's worth noting that FOX said tonight that Manchin implied that he is considering switching parties

Can't see it happening, especially if McConnell stays Senate Republican Leader. I hear the two really hate each other as people (IIRC it has to do with college football rivalries). If, say John Thune replaces McConnell, maybe he could become an Independent and caucus with Thune, but the people of West Virginia are used to him being a Democrat. He is very pro-life and pro-coal, but he still endorsed Clinton.

And, Justice won in West Virginia.

[Young Conservative]

Anyone saying Ted Cruz is anything less than safe needs to remember that Trump was a poor fit for Texas, it was a presidential year, the right wing third party got almost 4%, and Trump still won by about 10. Texas is not a lean R or tossup. It is a solid Red state.

[Devils30]

A lot of these Midwestern Trump voters will elect Dems by double digits. Don't be stunned if his act wears thin by then and the generic ballot is +15

[nclib]

If Trump is unpopular and Dems turn out to vote, Senate Dems are still maxed out in 2018 because of their success in 2006 and 2012. MT, ND, WV, MO, IN will be hard to hold, and even in a good Dem year some of them may still flip. The only feasible pick-ups are NV and AZ, so a net gain of 2 for Dems is still pretty unlikely, but if it does happen, Senate will still be in GOP control as it would be 50-50 with a Republican VP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump will definitely be a 1 term president. And D's lost the SCOTUS chance. It will make the Democratic chances of getting a House majority in 2020 by the time reapportionment happens a lot easier.

[henster]

Very high odds we'll be in a recession in the next year or so and if Trump is serious about pulling out of NAFTA that could have further economic implications.

[KingSweden]

Probably a net wash

[Maxwell]

The map looks ugly as all hell - I'd be surprised if Dems made anything beyond a 2-3 seat loss.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Considering the only plausible pickups for Democrats are AZ and NV, they will almost certainly hold the Senate in 2018.

Yes I think so too.

But I wonder how many seats democrats could hold, I used to believe Manchin would lose, not anymore.

If Trump is unpopular, I suppose it's possible the Democrats could pick up 1 or 2 seats, but even holding ground is like squeezing blood out of a rock on that Senate class.

[henster]

MO, IN look dicey I feel better about Manchin after Justice win and there won't be anymore 'WAR ON COAL!1!!, OBAMA! attacks. Tester v Zinke will be huge but Zinke was all in for Trump so if he's unpopular that could be the difference. Heitkamp, Casey Jr, Nelson,Stabenow, Klobuchar have a good handle on their states while Baldwin may have anti-Trump & anti-Walker feeling in WI to benefit her.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dems win house lose senate

[morgieb]

It's basically impossible for the Democrats to pick up the Senate unless a massive upset happens in Louisiana - only really two seats that we don't already have we can realistically pick up. Worse, there's 5 seats that Romney won that the Democrats need to play defence in.

Current views, assuming that Trump becomes an unpopular hot mess and causes a blue wave in 2018:

Indiana and Missouri look very tough hold even in a blue wave, both Donnelly and McCaskill won largely because of very flawed candidates and both states trended heavily Republican from ones that were basically line ball in 2008. I'm more confident in McCaskill as she won by more in 2012 and Kander pushed Blunt hard (in contrast Bayh fizzled out hard). Still they aren't any better than a toss-up AFAIC. All comes down to the sort of the campaign the Democrats run in 2018.

For Manchin, to survive he probably needed Justice and Trump to win, and what do you know, both happened. Add that it's a very economically depressed place that I can imagine being very anti-incumbent, and I think he may have a slight advantage, though perhaps not if the Republicans find the right candidate. He might defect to the Republicans I guess, but that might give him some primary strife unless he's certain he cannot win as a Democrat, and in any case he's not that right-wing.

Montana and North Dakota are interesting, but again I feel like Tester and Heitkamp are favourites there. They both have a fair grasp of the electorate of their states and I imagine retail politics works better than than in larger states. So assuming they haven't rejected the Democrats wholesale (and Bullock's win suggest they haven't) they'll probably hold unless the Republicans find top-tier candidates.

Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all trended right hard in this election, but only in Ohio do I imagine the Democrats having a tough time. In Ohio Sherrod Brown's win in 2012 was very narrow and that was with the Democrats putting a sh**tload of money there, and with a not super amazing Republican candidate. Still I think he holds on unless the Republicans find a top-tier candidate, and in that case the waters may be sullied by the governor's race. Wisconsin will be toughly fought but I suspect anti-Trump and anti-Walker setiment should mean that Baldwin holds on. Pennsylvania and Michigan though shouldn't be too much of a fight; although Casey's victory margin was underwhleming in 2012 that was with a very lazy campaign - unless the Republicans can find a very strong candidate he shouldn't fall too much further, and in any case he'll probably run a harder campaign if the Republicans do find a tip-top candidate. It could get interesting if Wolf was to retire and Casey runs for Governor I guess (as has been rumoured by some). Michigan won't be close if 2014 was any sign, and assuming Stabenow runs again she'll get a free pass anyway.

Maine is comparable to that Midwest quartet, as is Minnesota, although unlike those states they actually voted Democrat, if barely. But both have popular incumbents who will probably avoid strong recruitment. Maine might be interesting if King was to retire I guess.

Florida will always be swingy, but unless Nelson retires (and I think he announced he was running again?) Democrats should be fine here - like in Ohio I think most of the best Republican candidates run for the Governorship.

Virginia is only becoming more Democratic, and Kaine seems reasonably inoffensive. He ought to be fine. Similarly, I guess in New Jersey Menendez could be vulnerable in the right circumstances, but I doubt these will exist in 2018, so he'll be fine.

The rest of the Democratic seats should be safe no matter what.

For the Republicans, they're probably underdogs in Nevada - Nevada held up well for the Democrats in the last election and I can't imagine Trump having much popularity. Add that Heller only really held on here because of a toxic Democratic candidate and unless there's a major recruiting failure here he'll have the fight of his life on his hands. Arizona's probably safer but Flake will probably get a primary challenge and therefore we might see an unpalatable Republican candidate.

The other states should be fine for Team R. Utah might get interesting if Matheson was to run I guess, but that probably requires a retirement and the primary coughing up a weak Republican candidate. Cruz might be in primary trouble in Texas, but it's hard to think of a strong enough Democrat to win the state even if he does get wounded in the primary. The rest are out of reach barring something very weird happening.