Year in Review: U.S House races part 1

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm probably the only person who wasn't all that suprised to see Leach lose. Yes, he had been around forever and yes, Loebsack had barely any cash, but let's look at the other facts:

1-In 2002 Leach didn't win by much, and probably would've lost had he not have voted against the Iraq War Resolution. In 2004 he failed to crack 60% against an opponent even weaker than Loebsack in what was a very pro-incumbent year for all intents and purposes.

2-Most of his career Leach's district was based around the Davenport area. This is the only part of the state where a RINO like him is a rather good fit. The new district is based around Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, and a lot of blue collar rural areas where no Republican is a good fit, even one as liberal as Leach.

3-Leach was one of the primary sponsors of that Internet gambling bill. Whatever his reasons were (still has me scratching my head, he had nothing to gain from it), it clearly wasn't popular in his district as almost no one but the religious right, the NFL and some casinos were big on it. Not a smart thing for a liberal Republican in a Democratic-leaning district to do. I bet he would've won had it not have been for that actually.

I also expected Reynolds to win (polls since Foley showed it tightening and Davis wasn't much of an opponent, ran more to spread a message than actually get elected), and kind of had a gut feeling Boyda would once polls showed it tightening.

Shea-Porter on the other hand was a huge suprise. So was Pryce hanging on. I had her in the same category as Weldon and Hostettler.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rell did have coattails. Her (and Lieberman) are why Shays won and why Simmons came so close. I still bet if Lieberman hadn't run again Shays would've lost and Courtney would've won by a sizable margin.