Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

It will take a few days to determine whether this means much or whether this is just noise.

[Rowan]

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.

[Rowan]

But also at this point during the sumer, Carter led Ford 62-29.

[Rowan]

Looks like the rock star tour bounce has begun.

[Rowan]

Only viewed favorably by 50% of Indies? That will spell trouble come November as the Democrats Party ID advantage is decresing.

[Rowan]

Those favorability ratings are troublesome news for Obama.

[Rowan]

Those favorability ratings are troublesome news for Obama.

Not really, since Democrats have a significant numbers advantage. A lot of "independents" are just embarrassed Republicans anyway.

That "significant numbers advantage" is shrinking.

[Rowan]

How can that significant numbers be declining?  Please explain.  Oh you were talking about yourself.

According to Rasmussen the party ID advantage is down to D +7.6. It was D +9.5 in June and D +10.1 in May.

[Rowan]

Only up 21 among Hispanics? The other polls have it as a 2-1 margin for Obama.

But at least you can't say that Rasmussen is underpolling the black margin for Obama.

[Rowan]

Must have been a very good day of polling for Obama on Saturday in order to make a 3 point swing.

Not that I am surprised that Obama polled well on a weekend.

[Rowan]

Even Scott Rasmussen himself thinks his party ID weighting may be underestimating McCains lead:

"For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008."

[Rowan]

Is anyone else surprised that there wasn't a little more movement today or is it just me?

No, I'm not surprised. With the hard weight of D +7.6 that RAS is using, it will be extremely hard for McCain to build any kind of lead in a RAS poll simply because of the party breakdown of the poll.

[Rowan]

McCain will never be able to sustain a lead in this poll because of the hard party ID weighting that RAS uses. It is mathematically impossible. When you have that many Dems in the sample, of course it will make Obama's numbers look good.

[Rowan]

McCain will never be able to sustain a lead in this poll because of the hard party ID weighting that RAS uses. It is mathematically impossible. When you have that many Dems in the sample, of course it will make Obama's numbers look good.

And remember Obama's bounce was understated by Rasmussen as well. It's not some huge left wing conspiracy.

Not saying it's a conspiracy. I'm just saying his party ID numbers are wrong.

[Rowan]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

[Rowan]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

No, I don't personally. But, I know MAC is +5 with Indies today, after being +2 yesterday, and that the last three nights have been (most recent first):

Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%
McCain +5.33%

So the MAC night will fall off, giving Obama a lead of probably 2-3 points.

[Rowan]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

No, I don't personally. But, I know MAC is +5 with Indies today, after being +2 yesterday, and that the last three nights have been (most recent first):

Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%
McCain +5.33%

So the MAC night will fall off, giving Obama a lead of probably 2-3 points.

Well, thanks for the info.

I'm guessing that the Obama +2.69% of today replaced a similar number that dropped off today, right?

The one that fell off(Monday's daily result) was Obama + 1.55%.

Today's result in decimal form is Obama 48.00%- McCain 47.79%.

[Rowan]

Yes, thats why I'm expecting either an Obama +2 or Obama +3 lead.

[Rowan]

Saturday- September 20,2008
Obama 48%
McCain 47%

Looks like McCain won last night by a few points, I'm waiting for the exact numbers and will post later.

[Rowan]

Last nights sample was McCain +1.85.

So last three nights(most recent first):

McCain +1.85%
Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%

Today 3 day average unrounded is:

Obama 48.36%
McCain 46.99%

[Rowan]

This week must have been a strong week for Dems in terms of Party ID.

[Rowan]

Actual 3 day average:

Obama- 48.08%
McCain- 47.09%

Last night sample:

Obama- 48.58%
McCain- 46.46%

Last three days(most recent first):

Obama +2.12%
McCain +1.55%
Obama +2.69%

EDIT Some more internals for you number junkies:

R's- McCain 85.81%- Obama 11.99%
D's- Obama 81.71%- McCain 13.74%
I's- McCain 47.26%- Obama 44.35%



 

[Rowan]

Monday- September 22, 2008
Obama 48%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)

[Rowan]

Monday- September 22, 2008
Obama 48%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)

So, where does this sample lie in the O+0.93 to O+3.93 range?

Waiting for my source.

[Rowan]

Obama won last night by 3.4%