Romania 2014 - 2/16 November 2014

[politicus]

So there's a presidential election in Romania on November 2 and 6. The candidates are listed below, but keep in mind that, this being Romania, all candidates are tools or nutcases. The incumbent President, Traian Băsescu, who is... quite the personality (and largely an abrasive bully and polarizing figure, but one who hasn't accomplished anything besides being hated and 2 impeachment attempts despite 10 years in office), is term-limited.

I will complete the post a bit later.

Second round is on the 16th. Two weeks in between the rounds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_presidential_election,_2014

[politicus]

Ponta will get around 40% according to recent polls. Only 52,6% expects to vote according to the latest poll.

"Latest data suggest that Ponta will get around 40 per cent in the first round on November 2, well ahead of the likely runner up, the candidate of the rightist opposition coalition, Klaus Iohannis. Ponta is then expected to win the run-off, which takes place two weeks later."

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/low-turnout-expected-in-romanian-presidential-election

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Basescu has accused Ponta of being a spy!

“Victor Ponta has to admit being an undercover officer for the Foreign Intelligence Agency [SIE] between 1997 and 2001. I have clear evidence of this and am ready to prove my words”

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/spying-rows-dominates-romania-s-presidential-elections

[politicus]

Romania's Electoral Management Body: http://www.roaep.ro/en/section.php?id=66

Results should be published here.

[politicus]

Facts:

18.3 million Romanians are eligible to vote.

Preliminary results will be available 10.30PM EET (8.30PM GMT) - 1,5 hours after the polls close. Final results should be announced within 48 hours.


Important because:

The President has a number of significant prerogatives, including the right to nominate the Prime Minister, the chiefs of intelligence services and the heads of anti-corruption bodies. The next President will also play a central role in appointing a team to oversee IMF-backed reforms taking place under the terms of a 4-billion-euros standby deal. A review of the loan deal has been postponed pending the outcome of the election.


Who wins?

According to the polls Prime Minister Victor Ponta (42) from PSD.

Polls say Ponta will get around 40% in today's first round, well ahead of likely runner up Klaus Iohannis from the centre-right opposition coalition. Ponta then faces Iohannis in the second round where he is likely to get around 53%.

Nobody else has a chance.


Ponta has promised more jobs, bigger salaries and pensions, changes to the constitution to clarify the powers and duties of the President, the government, parliament and local authorities.

Ponta has also promised to be a "less aggressive" President than the outgoing incumbent, Traian Basescu, trying to get support from people who feel that Basescu was too impulsive and divisive.

Ponta’s critics fear his win will consolidate the ruling coalition's grip on power to an unhealthy degree and threaten the independence of the judiciary, prosecutors and media.


Iohannis (55) has constructed his electoral campaign by playing on his ethnic German background and reputation for efficiency.

He supports economic reform - backed by a good relationship with international lenders - under an EU umbrella, but according to observers many voters find his campaign promises bland and uninspiring.


Why the voters don’t really care

"Analysts say the lack of a clear agenda on the part of most candidates, as well as a perception of clientism and corruption, has contributed to a lack of interest on the part of the voters.

Many public debates were also based on rumours and accusations related to the private lives of the candidates, such as how many houses Iohannis owns, or whether Ponta was or wasn't a former agent for the secret services."

Turnout  is expected to be 52-53%. In the last presidential elections in 2009 54.3% voted in the first round and 56.9% in the run-off.

[politicus]

Are Germans a prestige ethnic group in Romania? Or is "efficiency" just a positive ethnic stereotype like those used in David McAllister's campaign?

Mainly the latter I would say, Germans also have a reputation for honesty (relative to Romanians) as well as efficiency. So his image as the "clean, efficient and honest manager" fits the German stereotype well.

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The final results released by the Electoral Bureau today confirmed that Ponta won  first round of the presidential election with 40.44%, while Klaus Iohannis won 30.37% of the vote.

Ponta has already started campaigning for the second round of the presidential elections.

He has drawn the ethnic card and said only he can unite all Romanians, implying that Iohannis, as an ethnic German from Transylvania, can’t.

Nationalist populist Corneliu Vadim Tudor, who won 3.68%  has announced that he and his followers will support Ponta in the second round.

Ponta can also count on the support of Calin Popescu Tariceanu, who came third in the first round, with 5.36%. According to media reports Ponta is mulling making Tariceanu the next Prime Minister if he wins.

Iohannis on the contrary has said that he will not negotiate with other candidates to get the votes of their supporters in the second round.

“I will not directly negotiate with any politician, I want the votes of all Romanians who believe I can make a difference to Romanian politics”

Noble, but probably a mistake... Still, I suppose most liberals will support him anyway.

An important bloc of swing voters could be Romania's large ethnic Hungarian community make up about 7% of the electorate.
Its not clear whether their main party Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) will support Ponta, although the party is currently a member of the leftist coalition headed by Ponta’s Social Democrats. As the price of its support, the UDMR is likely to ask for backing for its plan to establish an autonomous region in Transylvania, comprising those areas where ethnic Hungarians are a majority and that will conflict the nationalist discourse Ponta is now using.

[politicus]

On BBC as well:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30076716