Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[ursulahx]

In a state where Republicans massively outnumber Democrats, increased turnout in all areas is good news for the GOP. Unless all those Republicans have switched sides.

I called this for Moore ages ago, and I’ve seen nothing to make me change my mind. There’s no fairytale ending here; people really are that disgusting. The good news is they’re (probably) in a minority nationally.

[ursulahx]

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

From all that I’ve seen, whether it’s poll data, focus groups or individual anecdotes, this has all the markings of another Handel-Ossoff. It’s already a tough area, and the race has become nationalised. Higher postal turnout in all areas suggests both sides are getting fired up, which effectively results in stasis. I’m preparing to wake up disappointed on Wednesday morning.

(Note that I called Virginia completely wrong, but I’ve got to have a stopped clock moment at some point.)

[ursulahx]

These turnout and Instagram posts are fun, but the bottom line is that this race has become nationalised. It's Alabama anti-establishment voters against The World. They see they've got their man in the White House, but they also see him under attack all the time (I'm seeing it from their POV) so they don't feel they've won yet. They have to keep sending their men to the national level again and again. They're still motivated.

This is why Jones won't win, even though he has doubtless swung a lot of people his way. Motivated Republicans massively outnumber motivated Democrats. In any other state - OK, almost any other state - I might be more cautious.

I don't want to be right, y'know.

[ursulahx]

These turnout and Instagram posts are fun, but the bottom line is that this race has become nationalised. It's Alabama anti-establishment voters against The World. They see they've got their man in the White House, but they also see him under attack all the time (I'm seeing it from their POV) so they don't feel they've won yet. They have to keep sending their men to the national level again and again. They're still motivated.

This is why Jones won't win, even though he has doubtless swung a lot of people his way. Motivated Republicans massively outnumber motivated Democrats. In any other state - OK, almost any other state - I might be more cautious.

I don't want to be right, y'know.

I mean this confuses MAGA activists/voters with the generic Alabama Republican voter; I'm sure lots of them like/support Trump but still won't be massively enthused about voting for a accused pedophile in a senate race. I mean heck Trump even endorsed Strange in the Primary, and lost.

The race has got national focus, but has not been nationalised. GA-06 had tons of liberal activists/politicians/money from out of state, and the race was framed as being all about Trump. I mean the Democrats ran someone who worked on the Hill.

The Alabama race has become more about Alabama itself; and has became about whether a paedophile should be in the senate, rather than if the Democrats will have another vote in the Senate.

That's an excellent counter-argument, and I hope very much that your view on things is more correct than mine.

I think we need to take a step back and look at the wider perspective on all this. If Jones is crushed, it's business as usual. If he wins, the world is (briefly) turned upside down. But if he loses narrowly, which I think is the most likely result, what happens? Democratic despair at having come so close, more Republican jitters, and a lot of tweets and column inches. But then things settle down. Trump has his victory; Moore has his. The Republicans quietly seat Moore (though I don't know who's going to volunteer to sit next to him) and the GOP's legislative agenda continues its clunky journey forwards.

In other words, whether Jones loses by a lot or by a little, or even just one vote, nothing much changes in the immediate term and the Democrats still have to wait until November 2018 if they hope to make any difference to the country. Sorry if this is stating the obvious, but it would be easy for the Democrats to say "ha! We came close!" if Jones loses; as if this somehow changes everything, where in fact it changes nothing.

(When I say it changes nothing, I mean the election itself; having Moore in the Senate could change a lot of things, but that's yet to be seen.)

[ursulahx]

Folks, cool it with the turnout reports. In the words of a great man from New Jersey, “It don’t matter. None of this matters.”

[ursulahx]

Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.