US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alternatively you could use his Schuylkill base as a way of trying to shore up the new reps further north. Is a ridiculous Schuylkill-to-Scranton district possible?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The map is fascinating but very risky. I wonder whether, after eventually getting burned by their own handiwork last time round*, the PA Republicans have the stomach for trying something like that again? Mind you, I suspect that your map is much more competent than what was drawn for 2002, but this issue is one reason why the process of gerrymandering can be so interesting.

*They would have done about as well in 2010 with a sane looking map as with the actual one, so it isn't as though it ever came good for them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How is the map risky?

Because partisan identity in much of PA isn't solid enough these days, basically. You've created a lot of districts that would be safe enough most of the time, but might be horribly vulnerable in a wave or the incumbent is naughty is caught being naughty.

Though all of that is fine, actually, if the point is to maximise GOP congressional representation in an average year; it'd be hard to do much better in that regard. The interesting issue wrt redistricting is that that might not be the goal of the people who actually draw the maps.

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It was slightly weirder than that; it's like they were trying to do two things with that district at once.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's also been a surprising degree of resilience at a 'local' level and that's the sort of thing you'd assume the people drawing the maps would be aware (and wary?) of.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

I think it goes back to the war.

Much like the difficult relationship between Yorkshire and Lancashire then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Never forget that politicians are usually terrible judges of this sort of thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think he intended to write 'cock', actually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose we can't entirely rule out the possibility that he intended to speak of country matters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The pattern looks like a fantasy geological map of some kind.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does Lackawanna-Luzerne-Carbon-Schuylkill equal a district, roughly? Because if so, it's an obvious one to draw, almost as a starting point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But Monroe doesn't fit from a community of interest perspective.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it does then it kept them tastefully covered up in the House/State Legislature elections last year, at least when compared to the rest of the state. Stranger things have happened though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How can this sort of thing be legal? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know why. This is not a real question.