German Elections & Politics

[Aurelio21]

 @The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

[Aurelio21]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

I think The Saint has posted an educated guess / average of pre-election Polling. The exit poll data collection will not be finished before 4:30 pm local (CET) time // 9:30 am Atlas Server time.
I can tell since I was last year witnessing the Polling as a voluntary poll worker.

The interviewer (InfratestDimap, the instituted hired by the ARD - public broadcaster ) explained he had to call the data collection Center at specific times (12 pm, 4:30 pm local (CET) time) and report turnout, registered voters and preliminary votes at 12 pm and full results at 4:30 pm (includes age, social status, sex and voting patterns of the last elections).

[Aurelio21]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

The Bavarian Party will not be over the 5% treshold.

Do you really think this?
A) None of the pollsters expicitly ask for them
B) According to pollsters, "Other" parties obtain 5-6 %Points
C) These numbers of the "others" factored(according to the experience" to the real result are about 8 %
D) For a proud bavarian patriot, the CSU disqualified themselves completely despite Mr Seehofers attempts of appeasing them
E) There is no real alternative as the so-called pseudo "Alternative for Germany" does not Appeal to bavarian patriots, neither the "Freie Waehler" who are already displayed they are anyting else but a CSU Version 2.5

[Aurelio21]

The polling institutes also do an exit-poll prognosis at 2 pm.

That's right which does not contradict my post. This preliminary prognosis is made of the data collected at 12 pm. Yet these numbers usually are skewed towards the CSU since these are the voters which have just left the catholic mass with a priest not shy of eluding what chaos(the magical word) will come above all those sinners who even think of voting for another Party then the CSU :-)

[Aurelio21]

@ RedPrometheus:
I do not know this exactly. This is just extrapolating former results, and reading articles from various Sources outside of mainstram media. Not "Breitbart" or Alt-right Sources. Rather local media e g the city magazine of the city of Augsburg, which is not exactly the metatron of Bjoern Hoecke.
In this Magazine, the Bavarian Party(BP) has the second-to-third-most followers on Twitter and Facebook from Bavaria after the CSU. And many young bavarians only affiliate with them out of fear of losing their jobs in public Service and enterprises dependend on the good will of the local CSU godfather.

A) I have compared the averages of exit polls and final results in Bavaria, the ratio is about 1.3 pre-election poll to election result
B) I am aware, yet the turnout in the cities appears to be rising according to several official Sources

The BP above 5 % is quite bold/hyperbole. The higher turnout might just benefit the Greens and the AfD. But definitely not CSU. SPD, FDP and likely FW will suffer as well.

Ultimately, the BP will not prevail, but getting 3-4 % should be realistic. As of now (5:09 pm) the turnout in the cities is to high and rather indicates an good "Greens" and "AfD" result.

[Aurelio21]

Any explanation for the strong Green surge? They probably took a lot of support from the FDP and SPD, but why exactly are they the ones surging so much?

Basically, there are 2 groups from where the Greens are getting new support:
- SPD eletorate from affluent urban and especially suburban voters. These voters voted against the coalition and are now leaving in droves. Unlike in Northern and Western Germany, the BavarianSPD has had their only strongholds in big cities like Munich, Nuremberg and Augsburg. Until 2000 they had a rural presence in northern upper Franconia with socially conservative voters.
- The CSU is losing their grip on conservatives. They are leaving (Refugees Welcome!)towards the FW and especially the AfD. The CSU rather is a Big-Tent-Party with conservative appearance. If you are a young bavarian you have to be a member or affiliated to the CSU for your own professional carreer due to the momentary total dominance of the CSU in Society, even if you sympathize with Greens/SPD. Now that the CSU seems to be done for, These socialized center-left CSU members and voters are leaving as they see an opportunity of getting rid of their innatural bonds.

[Aurelio21]

Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Sorry, that's just ridiculous. The Bavarian Party won't get anywhere close to 5%. They're around for years, many voters know them, like them and would even vote for them, but no one acutally does. 2% would be a good result for them, but everything about 3% is just not realistic. 
[/quote]

You're missing the point, I've already admitted the hyperbole. Yet they are totally underestimated, if you had read my other posts that should be clear.

[Aurelio21]

I don't know where you're getting your information from, but as a young Bavarian myself this is just plain wrong. Bavaria isn't China where you have to be a member of the party in order to advance your career. It's totally irrelevant whether you're a member of the CSU, SPD or not a party member at all. Politics doesn't matter in your personal or professional life, so I don't know why you're saying such things.

… says someone who identifies as a conservative. Then show me please the vast majority number of SPD/Green/FDP/AfD-members running the municipalities.
The straw man argument (Bavaria is not China TM) does not lead anywhere. If the municipal branches of the CSU did not support the ;-) conservative movement of "Refugees Welcome" ;-) this programme would simply not have been applied in Bavaria (the same as in whole Germany).

Thus there is even in Bavaria a support of pro-Immigratation policies despite the opposite utterered by Seehofer and Soeder!

[Aurelio21]

@republicanbayer
My Intention certainly is not to attack you. Just try to applicate for a job at your local municipal Administration without being member of the CSU /perceived as CSU-affiliate and having no mentor. Or try starting a small business without  being connected to your local CSU. This applies of course not only for Bavaria, that's the way it is everywhere else except the political party may be different.

As the post-election analysis shows, my assessment of the source of the Green voters appears to be somewhat correct (substancial former SPD AND CSU crossover voters).

CSU at 35 %, AfD at 11, FW at 11 but above AfD, SPD under 10 %, FDP struggling with 5 %. Just wait as the exit poll did not ask for BP. I underestimated the Greens as they usually underperform the pre-election polls.

[Aurelio21]

@ The Saint
The state media does not publish anything. Over local government pages I have seen: my estimate is about 3 %, which is quite good for a Party whithout any media coverage.

[Aurelio21]

@ The Saint
The state media does not publish anything. Over local government pages I have seen: my estimate is about 3 %, which is quite good for a Party whithout any media coverage.

It is interesting how they are still rising compared to 2013. I would have thought they would have fallen with more right-wing options on the table this time around.

Don't fall for him. Aurelio21 is just a BP troll.

Lol

Also:

Then you seem to be totally obmissive that my other projections of the main parties is quite correct.

And my fellow german poster seems to have missed the irony: I am NOT from Bavaria, and would wish sometimes they would "Vote Leave" :-)

If you have access to municipal and local election results: The BP does weill in rural areas, yet the high turnout in big cities will stop them from having a better result.

[Aurelio21]

Lol

Then you seem to be totally obmissive that my other projections of the main parties is quite correct.

I just thought the idea of a "BP troll" as being funny I know you aren't one

Yeah, then I would have to do something against this like hanging or shooting myself if I would ever become one ;-)

[Aurelio21]

Lol

Then you seem to be totally obmissive that my other projections of the main parties is quite correct.

I just thought the idea of a "BP troll" as being funny I know you aren't one

Yeah, then I would have to do something against this like hanging or shooting myself if I would ever become one ;-)

You predicted the other parties correctly by missing the Greens. That's why you predicted such a high "others" vote.

What are your figures for ÖDP, mut and BüSo?

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

[Aurelio21]

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

You know that social media presence usually doesn't translate into actual voters?

Yes, but I had to assign my "Other"-votes to small parties without mass media representation. And the BP with an extraordinary presence was quite tempting ;-)

But let's wait the rest of counting the votes. To quote a real genius regarding power: "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." ;-)


Comparing the numbers from the exit polls to preliminary results: Maybe someone gave Mr Seehofer and Mr Soeder the mobile number of Mrs Conway, Mr Kobach and Mr Kemp ;-)

[Aurelio21]

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

You know that social media presence usually doesn't translate into actual voters?

Yes, but I had to assign my "Other"-votes to small parties without mass media representation. And the BP with an extraordinary presence was quite tempting ;-)

But let's wait the rest of counting the votes. To quote a real genius regarding power: ""It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes.""

Of course, your model is right, but a huge anti-Bayernpartei conspiracy among the vote counters is to blame for the fact that the BP won't get 6%. Btw, both Die Partei and the Pirates both have more follower on social media than the BP.

;-) Thanks for your approval. As you are living in Bavaria, I bet in a few days Mr Soeder will brag in local newspapers how great his pals Kobach and Kemp helped with their practical experience. ;-)
;-)

I simply assigned to many voters to the "Other" fraction. At least I can admit where I erred.

[Aurelio21]

@republicanbayer

What are you doing? "He-Who-Must-Not-Have-Committed-Collusion-And-Not-Be-Named" cannot be behind this. Ask Mr Trump, on whom he definitely has no Compromat of.

[Aurelio21]

But CSU didn't copy the AfD. The CSU is slightly wary of Muslim immigration. The AfD literally supports the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from Germany. Anyone who supports or votes AfD in 2018 knows they march side by side with the neo-Nazis. The gap is very large, though the coalition would be easy to form, as has always been the case with German racialism.

Such a partisan, left-wing populist bullsh**t!
The Greens and the Left march side by side with the left-wing fascist Antifa, which is willing to resort to violence, and with anti-constitutional parties like the MLPD and the KPD, they openly support musicians who call for violence against the police, and anyone who supports or votes Greens/Left in 2018 knows that they approve of Turk-Arab parallel societies and Turk-Arab family clans and of Sharia and that they refuse to deport criminal asylum seekers.

at Ἅιδης:
I definitely approve your post. Why is the SPD losing: They have abondoned their core constituency of workers , blue-collar and white-collar alike. This started with HartzIV and is continued by an absurd following of PC and identity politics. Just like the former Democrats in West Virginia and e g the Iron Range of Minnesota!
As the crossover numbers clearly show: Even the CSU with their message "We need stability instead of chaos" is more appealing for socially conservative and economical liberal ( i e populist) voters.
The other core constituency, the affluent urban and suburban social-liberal voters are leaving now to the Greens. They are 100% identity politics.

The CSU losses as a Big-Tent-Party mirror those of the SPD: Dissatisfied voters leave to the FW(CSU Vers. 2.0 with more coziness) or to a real right-conservative-to-right-populist party AfD.
Those who are opportunistic center-left voters within the CSU had a real alternative with the Greens, who would need their own Winfried Kretschmann (Green PM of Baden-Wuerttemberg) for further success.
They stopped the hemorrhaging with the classic CDU/CSU channeling of Konrad Adenauer's "No Experiments". This reverted the devastating trend with blue-collar voters.


at DavidB: You're absolutely right, Mr Seehofer saved the day via appealing against impending instability and the right message about the undeniable success of the CSU economic policies. Yet he caused the problem in the first place since he backed off some conservative principles as Minister of the Interior.