Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote

[Gustaf]

How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton?  Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012?  

This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.

That question has been answered, the answer is no. There is literally nothing to back up this notion beyond Trump himself claiming it. It's ridiculous.

Trump's path to victory has to be in driving up turnout among disenfranchised white voters and possibly swinging over some angry blue-collar whites. This has to happen in sufficient numbers that it offsets losing some sensible centrists (as I think he will). Secondly, it needs to overcome the likely hit he takes with Hispanic vote share and turnout.

[Gustaf]

Just to reiterate what I said earlier here, I dragged up the numbers and posted them in one of the other threads where it was discussed. Polling suggests Trump is wildly unpopular with black voters, even more so than a typical Republican candidate. Clinton, on the other hand, as we have seen is quite popular with black voters and is running as Obama 2.0 with his support. She might not get quite the percentage+turnout a black candidate like Obama got but there is nothing to suggest she'd do worse than Kerry 2004 or so.

Thinking Clinton will win the white vote though sounds optimistic. I'd like to think the American electorate is sensible enough that Trump would lose in a landslide, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point.