Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hash]

A 2 point bump for the NDP is not "statistical noise".

A one day 2-point bump for any party in one poll may be statistical noise.  Or not.

A 2-point movement is within the margin of error.  You have to wait a few days to decide whether it is statistical noise or a trend.   And in any event, the full bump (if any) from the debates should be factored into the Monday or Tuesday polling, not Saturday's.  Compare Tuesday's Harris/Decima poll to Friday's to determine whether the parties received any bump or decline as a result of the English debates.

Why Harris-Decima and not Nanos or EKOS? Harris-Decima is certainly not the best firm there is out there.

[cinyc]

A 2 point bump for the NDP is not "statistical noise".

A one day 2-point bump for any party in one poll may be statistical noise.  Or not.

A 2-point movement is within the margin of error.  You have to wait a few days to decide whether it is statistical noise or a trend.   And in any event, the full bump (if any) from the debates should be factored into the Monday or Tuesday polling, not Saturday's.  Compare Tuesday's Harris/Decima poll to Friday's to determine whether the parties received any bump or decline as a result of the English debates.

Why Harris-Decima and not Nanos or EKOS? Harris-Decima is certainly not the best firm there is out there.

Because the poll SoFA EarlAW was originally talking about to show a Dipper post-debate bump was Harris-Decima.   It's a 4-day poll, so the full English debate bump won't be shown until Tuesday.  Some of the others are 3-day polls, so the full bump will be shown tomorrow.

[WalterMitty]

i couldnt be the only person that believes that gilles duceppe is a horrible human being.

[Хahar 🤔]

i couldnt be the only person that believes that gilles duceppe is a horrible human being.

Any reason?

[WalterMitty]

i couldnt be the only person that believes that gilles duceppe is a horrible human being.

Any reason?

his stupid speech today (or yesterday) didnt help.

and i generally dislike secessionists.

[2952-0-0]

Looks like Stephen Harper will have to reverse course on his crime promises:

http://www.thestar.com/Federal%20Election/article/512033

[cinyc]

Looks like Stephen Harper will have to reverse course on his crime promises:

http://www.thestar.com/Federal%20Election/article/512033

Because we all know a Conservative did it, even though there's no evidence.  Can't be a Dipper, a Green or even a Liberal or run-of-the-mill anarchist - even though the Dippers have a better shot winning most Toronto ridings than the Tories.  And St. Paul's is a pretty safe Liberal seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

It wasn't me you guys! lol

The Liberals are usually the one's up to no good. Rumour has it they stole a bunch of our signs (and Green signs) to make the race look like it was between the Libs and Tories. (This was in Ottawa South).

And of course, there's the stories of ovencleaner on signs...

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Thanks for the link Earl . Much appreciated.

Why oh why did the Liberal Party elect Stéphane Dion as their leader back in 2006? He makes the "Golden Boy" look like a competant leader. Hopefully once this election is over once and for all, the Liberals will get rid of him, that's if there is any competant leaders in the Liberal Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for the link Earl . Much appreciated.

Why oh why did the Liberal Party elect Stéphane Dion as their leader back in 2006? He makes the "Golden Boy" look like a competant leader. Hopefully once this election is over once and for all, the Liberals will get rid of him, that's if there is any competant leaders in the Liberal Party.

I want nothing more than the Liberals to pick another incompetent leader, my self

Hedy Fry '09!!!

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I want nothing more than the Liberals to pick another incompetent leader, my self

I'm sure you wouldn't Earl Anything to boost Jack Layton and his NDP in the polls. Though it does not seem that the NDP, but rather the Tories that are benefiting from Dion's incompetent leadership, at least that's what I've gathered from the latest opinion polls. Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Hedy Fry '09!!!

Sure Ms. Fry is quite an incompetent politician, but if you want an incompetent leader of the Liberal Party in 2009 you cannot go better than the "Honorable" Paul Martin. Though I'm sure those more familiarized with Canadian politics could conjure up a better incompetent Liberal.

[Meeker]

I read this article today that discussed the possibility of a Liberal-NDP coalition to stop Harper from forming government again. Is such an absurd scenario even vaguely plausible?

[2952-0-0]

Jack Layton talked about it a while back, but Dion immediately fired back and refused.

But anything's possible and if (C > L) && (C < 154) && (L + NDP + G >> C) it may require the Governor General to do something for once.

[Hash]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

[Verily]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

They may have just been lucky. I haven't seen anything indicating that they are superior pollsters.

[cp]

It wasn't me you guys! lol

The Liberals are usually the one's up to no good. Rumour has it they stole a bunch of our signs (and Green signs) to make the race look like it was between the Libs and Tories. (This was in Ottawa South).

And of course, there's the stories of ovencleaner on signs...

Ottawa South is a two way race. Live with it.

In any case, I've heard some quite nasty things from one of Earl's former coworkers on the Hill about what the NDP does as standard practice: having non-English speaking women in burqua's visit several different polling stations on election day, crossing electoral boundaries for their own sign vandalism, etc.

Frankly I'm proud of them. I always suspected that the NDP's squeaky clean image wasn't true; they didn't take politics seriously so they wouldn't ever form a government or even an opposition on the federal level. With the revelation that Jack Layton's the same kind of sleazy, underhanded, hypocritical politician as Harper and Dion, I just might be convinced to vote NDP! (Actually there's no chance; I don't want my seat falling to Harper so I'm switching from Green to Liberal - hopefully I'm not the only one).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Actually there's no chance; I don't want my seat falling to Harper so I'm switching from Green to Liberal - hopefully I'm not the only one).

Where bist thou live?

[Verily]

(Actually there's no chance; I don't want my seat falling to Harper so I'm switching from Green to Liberal - hopefully I'm not the only one).

Where bist thou live?

If he's actually in Quebec, I have no idea. There are no Liberal seats in Quebec in any danger from the Tories.

[cp]

Oh yeah, I forgot to say, I thought it was obvious

I'm in Ottawa-South, same riding as Earl.

Picking up on another topic mentioned above, the same source who told me about the NDP tactics had some interesting insights on the aftermath of a Liberal defeat. He said most of the party will flock to Ignatieff. Iggy was the runner up, he's probably the strongest candidate to face in any future election, and he's been a solid performer in the caucus for the past two years. However, Bob Rae will likely contest an Ignatieff coronation. Whether or not he'll get any support he'll be appallingly well-funded and well-connected, meaning there could be another costly leadership fight in 2009.

On the bright side, we both agreed that if Harper fails to get majority yet again there will be whisperings about the length of his tenure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's if he can hold his seat. Though the swing there will be lower (maybe a lot lower) than the norm of course... perhaps he's a lot safer than he looks on paper.

[Hatman 🍁]

It wasn't me you guys! lol

The Liberals are usually the one's up to no good. Rumour has it they stole a bunch of our signs (and Green signs) to make the race look like it was between the Libs and Tories. (This was in Ottawa South).

And of course, there's the stories of ovencleaner on signs...

Ottawa South is a two way race. Live with it.

In any case, I've heard some quite nasty things from one of Earl's former coworkers on the Hill about what the NDP does as standard practice: having non-English speaking women in burqua's visit several different polling stations on election day, crossing electoral boundaries for their own sign vandalism, etc.

Frankly I'm proud of them. I always suspected that the NDP's squeaky clean image wasn't true; they didn't take politics seriously so they wouldn't ever form a government or even an opposition on the federal level. With the revelation that Jack Layton's the same kind of sleazy, underhanded, hypocritical politician as Harper and Dion, I just might be convinced to vote NDP! (Actually there's no chance; I don't want my seat falling to Harper so I'm switching from Green to Liberal - hopefully I'm not the only one).

I honestly have no idea what you're talking about. I would like to know more about these tactics. They certainly aren't being done by us in Ottawa South; I don't know about Ottawa Centre. Such is politics though, and it is unfortunate.

Oh, and I don't live in Ottawa South anymore. (thank god!)

[Hash]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

They may have just been lucky. I haven't seen anything indicating that they are superior pollsters.

But they're not Angus-Reid or that other crap pollster I forgot. They deserve atleast a bit of respect, since they're not entirely off like Angus-Crap.

[Verily]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

They may have just been lucky. I haven't seen anything indicating that they are superior pollsters.

But they're not Angus-Reid or that other crap pollster I forgot. They deserve atleast a bit of respect, since they're not entirely off like Angus-Crap.

Well, yeah, Angus Reid just gets filtered out of my mind. But I don't have any reason to believe that Nanos is empirically better than Ipsos-Reid, Harris-Decima, Strategic Vision or EKOS (although EKOS has had some wacky regional internals at times).

[Hash]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

They may have just been lucky. I haven't seen anything indicating that they are superior pollsters.

But they're not Angus-Reid or that other crap pollster I forgot. They deserve atleast a bit of respect, since they're not entirely off like Angus-Crap.

Well, yeah, Angus Reid just gets filtered out of my mind. But I don't have any reason to believe that Nanos is empirically better than Ipsos-Reid, Harris-Decima, Strategic Vision or EKOS (although EKOS has had some wacky regional internals at times).

I certainly hope Nanos' Green numbers turn to out to be inaccurate.

[Verily]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

They may have just been lucky. I haven't seen anything indicating that they are superior pollsters.

But they're not Angus-Reid or that other crap pollster I forgot. They deserve atleast a bit of respect, since they're not entirely off like Angus-Crap.

Well, yeah, Angus Reid just gets filtered out of my mind. But I don't have any reason to believe that Nanos is empirically better than Ipsos-Reid, Harris-Decima, Strategic Vision or EKOS (although EKOS has had some wacky regional internals at times).

I certainly hope Nanos' Green numbers turn to out to be inaccurate.

Harris-Decima's poll today has lots of interesting numbers on that front. They have May soaring in approval and favorability after the debates. Dion also made gains while Harper lost ground, bringing the two into a statistical tie in favorability and approval. Layton and Duceppe stayed high but are only a little bit above May now. May's net approval rating has also surpassed that of Layton.