When will Democrats next have more than 50 Senate seats?

[Roll Roons]

And what will that majority look like in terms of delegations?

[UncleSam]

After 2026. 2022 I think will be about R+1 or so, and 2024 will probably be R+2 or R+3 with a marginal DeSantis win over Harris. The resultant 2026 midterm bloodbath should result in D pickups in ME, TX, and NC for starters, alongside wins in some combination of AK, IA, MT, and SC to hit 51 or 52 seats. Even if they o to manage 50, Ds would be virtually guaranteed a 51+ seat majority after 2028 because Rs would be massively overextended after the likely 2022 wave.

[MT Treasurer]

After 2026. 2022 I think will be about R+1 or so, and 2024 will probably be R+2 or R+3 with a marginal DeSantis win over Harris. The resultant 2026 midterm bloodbath should result in D pickups in ME, TX, and NC for starters, alongside wins in some combination of AK, IA, MT, and SC to hit 51 or 52 seats. Even if they o to manage 50, Ds would be virtually guaranteed a 51+ seat majority after 2028 because Rs would be massively overextended after the likely 2022 wave.

Very bold of you to assume that R gains will be limited to R+2 or R+3 in the event that Democrats lose the presidency in 2024, that IA/MT will be particularly competitive in 2026, and that Republicans will be "massively overextended" in 2028 if 2022 is only R+1. The scenario you laid out for Democrats is very rosy, and it’s actually not easy to create one in which they win the Senate in the 2020s because they’re unlikely to benefit from several favorable cycles in a row and the math just works against them.

In any case, flipping the NC/TX/AK seats will be paramount and they should start working toward it sooner rather than later.

[Pericles]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 obviously and as soon as they release polls in OH, NC we will if D's can replicate a wave, I get so tempted everyday to put OH and NC in D column but Biden Approvals have hobbled between 46/43 to 53/47 that's an average of 50/45 the same 304 blue wall that produces last time

Why are they holding back polls from IA, OH, NC Sen and KS and MA Gov which is very mysterious

[MT Treasurer]

I maintain that Steve Daines's electoral prospects are underrated on this forum and by most pundits/analysts. For 2026, my prediction is that Steve Daines will beat Jacob Bachmeier by a 55.92%-41.58% margin in another Biden/Harris midterm and by a 52.12%-45.07% margin in a midterm under a R president (likely DeSantis, but no confident prediction this far out) because of his top-notch messaging, his ability to excel at pork-barrel politics, his meticulous knowledge of every state's county, and his unparalleled awareness of the state's macroeconomic trends and political shifts (as well as his keen readiness to swiftly respond to them). Bachmeier's campaign will be marked by a string of costly missteps that will play into Daines's hands by allowing him to frame Bachmeier as an out-of-state liberal puppet. The race will be overhyped like 2014/2020, the three final polls will show Daines +3, Bachmann +1, and Daines +1, the final RCP average will be Daines +0.7, but Daines will end up significantly outperforming everyone's expectations again, with the race being called four hours and seventeen minutes after the polls close.

Steve Daines will then win a fourth term in 2032 while the R president is reelected in the concurrent presidential election, fend off another D challenge in 2038 (when he’ll benefit from a R-friendly environment under a D president who was elected in 2036), hang on by the skin of his teeth in 2044 (when he’ll lose a lot of his crossover appeal but ride the narrow R win at the presidential level in MT/nationally to a final term), and then retire in 2050. I think the next promising opportunities for any Republican or Democratic rising star my age will be 2048 and 2050, and those may be once-in-a-lifetime opportunities.

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

Dems really can’t afford to win the Presidency in 2028.  They would probably end up with Republicans dominating redistricting after the 2031 redistricting and down to less than 40 senate seats after 2028.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably 2038 assuming that the US doesn’t turn into a Trump family dictatorship by then.

[NewYorkExpress]

Assuming they don't get there in 2022, never, because Republicans will win a trifecta in 2024 and ban all opposition parties.

[Pericles]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

Dems really can’t afford to win the Presidency in 2028.  They would probably end up with Republicans dominating redistricting after the 2031 redistricting and down to less than 40 senate seats after 2028.

The country may need them to, given how insane Republicans are and previous political history, it could take 3 consecutive defeats for them to moderate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Assuming they don't get there in 2022, never, because Republicans will win a trifecta in 2024 and ban all opposition parties.

It will be 52/48 S after 2022

Rs aren't winning the Trifecta, we will win MI, PA and MI based on Casey, Baldwin and Stabenow even if we lose the Senate in 2024 we don't have to win OH, WV or MT for the Prez, but Brown and Tester are very likely to win in a Prez Election since s higher turnout than Midterms

Then, Collins will lose in 2026

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

Dems really can’t afford to win the Presidency in 2028.  They would probably end up with Republicans dominating redistricting after the 2031 redistricting and down to less than 40 senate seats after 2028.

The country may need them to, given how insane Republicans are and previous political history, it could take 3 consecutive defeats for them to moderate.

The thing is that I don’t think Republicans care about the Presidency as long as they have a lock on congress and the courts.

[Pericles]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

Dems really can’t afford to win the Presidency in 2028.  They would probably end up with Republicans dominating redistricting after the 2031 redistricting and down to less than 40 senate seats after 2028.

The country may need them to, given how insane Republicans are and previous political history, it could take 3 consecutive defeats for them to moderate.

The thing is that I don’t think Republicans care about the Presidency as long as they have a lock on congress and the courts.

1980s Democrats certainly did. The presidency means the other oarty can't push the country in their direction, only obstruct the winner's agenda.

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

Dems really can’t afford to win the Presidency in 2028.  They would probably end up with Republicans dominating redistricting after the 2031 redistricting and down to less than 40 senate seats after 2028.

The country may need them to, given how insane Republicans are and previous political history, it could take 3 consecutive defeats for them to moderate.

The thing is that I don’t think Republicans care about the Presidency as long as they have a lock on congress and the courts.

1980s Democrats certainly did. The presidency means the other oarty can't push the country in their direction, only obstruct the winner's agenda.

Democrats are different than Republicans.  Republicans are all about obstructing while Democrats actually want to get things done.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A lot could happen, but I don't think they'll pull it off in this decade unless they narrowly lose 2024 (allowing Casey, Baldwin etc. to have good chances of hanging on).

This is assuming no DC or PR statehood.

[Xing]

Really depends on how the next two cycles go. If they get very lucky and keep their losses to a minimum next year and in 2024, then 2028 could be a possibility. If they lose the presidency and several Senate seats in 2024, though, I’d say probably not until 2030 at least (when they could gain back some of their lost seats in a six-year itch.) The Class II map just isn’t that lucrative for Democrats, since there isn’t that much upside for them beyond AK/ME/NC/TX.

[Non Swing Voter]

2022 - pretty simple formula: win PA + WI and lose no or 1 current seat (most likely GA or AZ).  I think this is a highly probable scenario.  The 2022 electorate is going to be a lot more educated than 2020 and that benefits Dems, particularly in PA.  I view the PA seat as lean Dem.

[Minnesota Mike]

2022.

[Skill and Chance]

Either 2027 or 2031.  Next Republican president midterm, basically.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It really doesn't matter with how you feel about Predicting, because there is no use to condradict people there aren't any user Prediction maps anymore, our 2020 Predicting maps aren't being updated anymore, but some users still show their 2020 Predictions and banners and the Election is OVER

Aside from the negative, D's will have 51/52 Senate seats after 2022