If Florida starts leaning Democrat, what next for GOP?

[ElectionsGuy]

If Florida seriously becomes left of the country, republicans do have options. By Florida trending more democrat, in return another state must trend equally as republican. If enough "Lean D" states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania trend republican enough to go republican in an election (which would also take the republican to do good enough) then it could effectively make up for Florida.

Or, what can happen is what has happened before, where a state that republicans need (like Virginia or North Carolina) trends democrat, but in return safe GOP states trend more republican, like Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, etc. If THAT happens again then it will be seriously considered that the GOP has a massive electoral problem. That's what they should try to avoid happening.

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida is a huge deal.

It is, but I believe it will remain center-right. It has never been left-leaning in modern history. If republicans get the white vote out of Florida that they got in 2012 and the Hispanic vote they got in 2004 (or even 2008) they have the state easily. 2012 was somewhat of a weird election in a way due to very poor GOP Hispanic vote. If Florida does become an issue though, then the GOP is suffering serious illnesses, similar to democrat illnesses in the 80's.

[ElectionsGuy]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

[ElectionsGuy]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

I, for one, do believe that PA will be R+low by the 2020's.  It could even happen next cycle with the right candidates.

Interesting, I am not implying that it will by any means and I don't think it will. I just wanted to compare it to Florida as some people tend to ignore Pennsylvania and move on with their lives. I just haven't heard many conservatives say "What happens when the democrats lose PA?". And to defend any threat against Pennsylvania, liberals say "Its never leaned republican since x (1948)". Well it turns out to be that Florida hasn't leaned democrat since the days of reconstruction in 1968, almost the same kind of situation, and to be fair the civil rights act heavily altered voting in the south, so they're incomparable. Yet some people seem convinced that Florida will change due to shifts of the electorate and Pennsylvania won't.

All I'm saying is that some people are too focused on demographic and voting changes that favored their party in the 2012 election that they would rather focus on the republican party's fate than think within reasonable means.

[ElectionsGuy]

...if California starts leaning GOP, what's next for the Democrats?

You have to provide some detail on why this shift would occur; otherwise it's absolutely a meaningless question.

I'm not even going to dignify this absurd response.

Why is it absurd? Pennsylvania is just as D-leaning as Florida is R-leaning and you guys aren't talking about that. Giving in some info on demographics and key political/cultural shifts would definitely be helpful. You guys won two presidential elections in a row (!) and your talking about speculation of Florida becoming a blue state? Florida really as no real trend, and it has always been 2-5 points more conservative than the country in the last 12 years. I already explained what republicans could do in my above post, but Vosem is right. Playing the "what-if" game without any real explanation is sort of pointless.

I, for one, do believe that PA will be R+low by the 2020's.  It could even happen next cycle with the right candidates.

Interesting, I am not implying that it will by any means and I don't think it will. I just wanted to compare it to Florida as some people tend to ignore Pennsylvania and move on with their lives. I just haven't heard many conservatives say "What happens when the democrats lose PA?". And to defend any threat against Pennsylvania, liberals say "Its never leaned republican since x (1948)". Well it turns out to be that Florida hasn't leaned democrat since the days of reconstruction in 1968, almost the same kind of situation, and to be fair the civil rights act heavily altered voting in the south, so they're incomparable. Yet some people seem convinced that Florida will change due to shifts of the electorate and Pennsylvania won't.

All I'm saying is that some people are too focused on demographic and voting changes that favored their party in the 2012 election that they would rather focus on the republican party's fate than think within reasonable means.

Your concerns are noted.

I've also noted the Republicans' presidential performances in Pennsylvania, as you mentioned, and I'm sticking with what I've either implied or stated outright: A Republican isn't presidential candidate is not going to carry Pennsylvania unless he's been elected and won by a substantial national margin. The R+2.46 by George W. Bush in 2004, the only "+" for Team Red since after the 1980s, isn't enough to bring in the Keystone State. Also, the fact that the base of today's Republican Party is in the Old Confederacy … it's not encouraging, realistically, for The Republicans Who Want Pennsylvania Oh-So-Badly.

As for Florida: I've noted it's a bellwether state performing within five percentage points of the national margin in every election since 1996. It is in sync with king-making (or queen-making) bellwether Ohio (whose margins have been within five percentage points since its unbroken streak of carrying for all winners date back to 1964). The general statements about Florida being a Republican state (and "center right") are asinine. And I'm not on board to say it is generally a Democratic state. But I have stated that we are in a realignment presidential period favoring the Democrats. So, there is plenty of reason for those who prefer the Democrats to feel encouraged.

I no doubt think Florida is a bellwether, but thinking its center-right is not asinine, here's the trend pattern for both states since 2000.

Note: When I conduct these numbers, I'm going by margin of victory, so If Obama won Pennsylvania by 5.4%, and he won overall by 3.9%, its 1.5% more democratic than the nation.

Florida:

2000: R+0.5%
2004: R+2.6%
2008: R+4.4%
2012: R+3.0%

Pennsylvania:

2000: D+3.7%
2004: D+4.9%
2008: D+3.1%
2012: D+1.5%

When I say center right, I mean right about center or slightly right of center, not that's its a republican state. It has always been slightly right of center, even if its not by much.

You're right about Pennsylvania, republicans just haven't won by enough to win it. No doubt though, all it takes is a comfortable republican victory similar to Obama's elections to win it though.