How did Trump come so close to winning in 2020 given the macro circumstances?
The Economy is Getting Worse:
If you look at the circumstances - deadly pandemic + an economy worse than 2008 + riots under his watch, you would've expected Trump to lose by way more. His performance should've been much closer to Bush Sr. or Carter. The 413-125 predictions seemed way more in line with the fundamentals than the actual results.
Was Biden really that weak of a challenger?
TML:
-Biden was an establishment candidate who didn't excite the Democratic base, just like Hillary was. His main selling point was that he was not Trump, just like Hillary.
-Democrats drastically reduced in-person campaigning as a result of the pandemic, while Republicans largely maintained their usual levels of in-person campaigning (indeed, exit polls showed that Trump won voters who decided their vote in October or later).
Fancyarcher:
Polarization, and the electoral college favoring Republicans. Any candidate would have done nearly exactly the same thing, barring maybe some last minute accusation.
This isn't 1988, or 1996 anymore. Even Obama's victory in 2008 seems impossible.
Sir Mohamed:
Quote from: TML on August 31, 2023, 01:30:26 AM
-Biden was an establishment candidate who didn't excite the Democratic base, just like Hillary was. His main selling point was that he was not Trump, just like Hillary.
-Democrats drastically reduced in-person campaigning as a result of the pandemic, while Republicans largely maintained their usual levels of in-person campaigning (indeed, exit polls showed that Trump won voters who decided their vote in October or later).
Yup. You could also argue that Trump wasn't really blamed for the economy as it was a result of a worldwide pandemic. Sure, he handled the health crisis extremely poorly, but the economy would have tanked under any administration. That was also the case in other countries with competent leaders.
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin:
Thank you, riverwalk3, for an interesting question.
I wonder if a good part of it isn't incumbency combined with low-partisanship voters who have pretty minimalist voting criteria.
Such a voter's decision would be based on something like:
"Has the incumbent done anything that obviously personally harms me or runs counter to my personal politics?" Perhaps that voter has strong feelings about foreign wars or big new taxes. Maybe massive policy changes flip their vote, but nothing less. (I.e. "Lets get rid of national forests and parks!" would alienate them, but they just don't know or care about drilling permits and renewable subsidies.)
Trump would have won that voter in 2020, and Biden would win them in 2024.
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