Vulnerable Seats 2012

[Gabu]

Nebraska:
If Ben Nelson retires or not, this is still a very conservative state that might want a Republican senator if someone like Heineman or Johanns runs

Didn't you predict that Nelson would lose in 2006 too?

[Gabu]

I chose Tester for the reason that Montana is a heavily Republican state

This is a popular myth, but is, nonetheless, a myth.  The governor is a Democrat.  Both senators are Democrats.  The attorney general is a Democrat.  The state auditor is a Democrat.  The Montana Senate is Democratic.  The Montana House of Representatives is one seat away from being Democratic.

The only notable statewide elected positions that are held by Republicans, in fact, are the secretary of state and the representative of the at-large district.  Everything else is Democratic.

[Gabu]

I chose Tester for the reason that Montana is a heavily Republican state

This is a popular myth, but is, nonetheless, a myth.  The governor is a Democrat.  Both senators are Democrats.  The attorney general is a Democrat.  The state auditor is a Democrat.  The Montana Senate is Democratic.  The Montana House of Representatives is one seat away from being Democratic.

The only notable statewide elected positions that are held by Republicans, in fact, are the secretary of state and the representative of the at-large district.  Everything else is Democratic.

I think he was speaking in term's of presidential elections.

But he said that Tester was vulnerable because of the reason he gave.  Tester isn't a presidential candidate.

[Gabu]

Hmm, fair enough. I agree that there is a misconception regarding Montana as a heavily Republican state. Having said that, I also think that Tester could be vulnerable. I mean, in a heavily Democratic year (in an apparently balanced state), Tester only managed to beat the old, senile, crook by 3000 votes. A good GOP candidate could put Tester away.

I wasn't disagreeing with the notion that Tester could potentially be a vulnerable target in 2006 since he's evidently more liberal than the state as a whole (though that hasn't stopped other senators from being re-elected); I was only dispelling the notion that Montana is a heavily Republican state (or even a Republican state at all).