Clinton vs. Bush 2016 Map

[bobloblaw]

I do love this scenarios, because it would be a huge humiliation for Bush.
1) He'd do worse than Romney
2) He'd not only lose FL, but do worse in FL than Romney
3) He'd do no better with hispanics than Romney.


All three are my dream come true. It would be a giant repudiation of Jeb Bush and the GOPe. They richly deserve it. It would also be a repudiation of Boeher, who would lose his speakership in Jan 2017, even though the GOP would keep the House.

Basically this would be a result where Bush alienated the conservative base and failed to gain any moderates to offset the millions of conservatives sitting at home. This is in fact nearly a 100% likelihood.

Unfortunately, two problems I see with this.
1) Hillary is an awful candidate.
2) Not since 1904, has the party going or its third straight election Presidential victory received an increase in the popular vote pecentage. And in 1904, there was TR and McKinley's assassination. Kind of like a mini 1964.

Dont get me wrong, I love your scenario. As a hardcore conservative, I believe the conservative movement would be destroyed by Jebbie and would actually thrive under Clinton, who after a disasterous first term would essentially destroy the Clinton name and legacy associated with economic prosperity and fiscal prudence that Bill worked hard towards in the 1990s. She'd either not run again in 2020 at age 74 or face a crushing defeat by 2016 runner up Scott Walker.

[bobloblaw]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

If she wins 51.3% of the national popular vote, she wont carry MO. Given the 2008 and 2012 results in MO relative to the national pv, you must think that MO is full of racist Dems. Maybe it is in St Louis County. Is that enough to move MO from R+7 to R+2 or 3?

[bobloblaw]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

If she wins 51.3% of the national popular vote, she wont carry MO. Given the 2008 and 2012 results in MO relative to the national pv, you must think that MO is full of racist Dems. Maybe it is in St Louis County. Is that enough to move MO from R+7 to R+2 or 3?

Well, she wins the popular vote by 5.6% here, so it would be more like R+5.

That isnt how PVI works. If MO was R+5, then Bush would be getting 50.7% of the vote(45.7% nationally). He'd win. R+ means how much above the national popular vote, the GOP candidate is getting, not the margin.

That's why FL is still an R+ plus state, despite Obama winning it in 2012. Romney got about 1-2% better in FL than nationally.

[bobloblaw]

Clinton/Clark
Bush/Ayotte

The Clinton's are done in AR. It is been over 20 years since they lived there. They NEVER EVER went back to visit when they were in the WH and only go back to campaign for candidates who ultimately lose by 20.

[bobloblaw]

For some reason Hillary is much less popular in CO than Obama.