FL-Rasmussen: Obama up 2

[bullmoose88]

Another big question is, they might like McCain, or at least more than Obama, but they also don't care for the GOP...which wins out there...their hate for BHO or the GOP, not sure.

How about this? Just stay home. That helps McCain, too/

Well yeah...but it wouldnt be enough I dont think...he really needs them to swing to him...I think.

[Keystone Phil]

Another big question is, they might like McCain, or at least more than Obama, but they also don't care for the GOP...which wins out there...their hate for BHO or the GOP, not sure.

How about this? Just stay home. That helps McCain, too/

Well yeah...but it wouldnt be enough I dont think...he really needs them to swing to him...I think.

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

[Flying Dog]

Another big question is, they might like McCain, or at least more than Obama, but they also don't care for the GOP...which wins out there...their hate for BHO or the GOP, not sure.

How about this? Just stay home. That helps McCain, too/

Well yeah...but it wouldnt be enough I dont think...he really needs them to swing to him...I think.

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

How so? Analyzing the state like anyone else? 

I've actually seen this stuff. I've seen hardcore, partisan Dems swearing that they won't vote for the guy. Kerry owned NE Philly (around 60%). If Obama has to fight to win here, the state is gone.

[Flying Dog]

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

How so? Analyzing the state like anyone else? 

I've actually seen this stuff. I've seen hardcore, partisan Dems swearing that they won't vote for the guy. Kerry owned NE Philly (around 60%). If Obama has to fight to win here, the state is gone.

Probably, but how reliable are anecdotes, really?

[War on Want]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Ummmmmmm no for many reasons.

Ummmmmm...I thank you for enlightening me with that substantial post.

lol Well anyways I really doubt that the industrial areas will swing towards McCain because of the current economic conditions. Maybe Luzerne might flip and maybe Washington but if you haven't noticed Clinton supporters have rallied around Obama lately, and both the industrial areas and suburban areas(which by the way voted for Clinton mainly because of their fairly significant working class populations and more lower middle class voters both pretty strong Democratic voting blocs) have strong democratic blocs.
I will almost say for sure that MontoCo, Chester and Delaware counties will have large swings towards Obama, while Bucks, Liegh and Northampton both barely swing to McCain. Obama should win Pennsylvania by 200,000-250,000 votes.

[Smash255]

I just don't see much in the way of the Kerry blue collar voters going over to McCain's column.  Another year?  Perhaps, but economics is going to be a major factor in this years election, especially in the blue collar areas you mention.  McCain's, Bush style economic platform I jus't be t don't see as going over well with blue collar Democrats.  I'm not saying he won't peel off some, but I just don't see him being able to pull off enough to take the state.  I also think some of those that do go over to McCain would be balanced out by moderate to liberal Republicans and ex-Republicans continuing to move over towards Obama.  A group in which the McCain of 2000 would have likely been able to stem the tide, but the McCain of 2008 who has put himself pretty closely with Bush won't be able to.

You have a few things counteracting each other in PA, I think it does break a little in McCain's favor, but won't be enough to flip the state.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

How so? Analyzing the state like anyone else? 

I've actually seen this stuff. I've seen hardcore, partisan Dems swearing that they won't vote for the guy. Kerry owned NE Philly (around 60%). If Obama has to fight to win here, the state is gone.

Probably, but how reliable are anecdotes, really?

But they aren't just anecdotes. It's a known weakness of the Obama campaign. You guys just wait and see. I think some of you are being too idealistic and simplistic about this.

[Sensei]

I would cry of happiness. Seriously.

[Flying Dog]

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

How so? Analyzing the state like anyone else? 

I've actually seen this stuff. I've seen hardcore, partisan Dems swearing that they won't vote for the guy. Kerry owned NE Philly (around 60%). If Obama has to fight to win here, the state is gone.

Probably, but how reliable are anecdotes, really?

But they aren't just anecdotes. It's a known weakness of the Obama campaign. You guys just wait and see. I think some of you are being too idealistic and simplistic about this.

Really?

I think this isn't going to be another 2004 in the sense that social issues aren't going to be the main focus. Things like guns and gay marriage may play some part but not in the way they have been like in '04.

The key is the economy. Neither candidate has claimed it as 'their' issue yet.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

How so? Analyzing the state like anyone else? 

I've actually seen this stuff. I've seen hardcore, partisan Dems swearing that they won't vote for the guy. Kerry owned NE Philly (around 60%). If Obama has to fight to win here, the state is gone.

Probably, but how reliable are anecdotes, really?

But they aren't just anecdotes. It's a known weakness of the Obama campaign. You guys just wait and see. I think some of you are being too idealistic and simplistic about this.

Really?

I think this isn't going to be another 2004 in the sense that social issues aren't going to be the main focus. Things like guns and gay marriage may play some part but not in the way they have been like in '04.

The key is the economy. Neither candidate has claimed it as 'their' issue yet.

I still think that that's enough to fix Obama's disconnect with some of these voters. We'll see though. 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

There's no way both this poll and the poll showing McCain +10 in Ohio can be true in the same week.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While I doubt that Obama is leading, I do think that Florida is in no way in the safe McCain column  or even moderate McCain.  Florida is winnable for Obama, tho it won't be the State that gives him his 270th EV.