FL-Rasmussen: Obama up 2

[WalterMitty]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

[emailking]

There's no way both this poll and the poll showing McCain +10 in Ohio can be true in the same week.

What the heck is this supposed to mean? The polls are projecting out to election day. They're "true" if they match the relative support levels in the actual election(s). It doesn't matter what week they were taken in to that end.

[Alcon]

The polls are projecting out to election day.

How is that?

[War on Want]

Summer polls=mostly trash

Come on, does anybody seriously think Obama is doing better in Montana than Florida?

[Person Man]

Still, though. The housing crunch is really bad in Florida and Obama could do well. Doubt it though.

[Lunar]

Still, though. The housing crunch is really bad in Florida and Obama could do well. Doubt it though.

Well, Florida is interested a LOT more in foreign policy than the Rustbelt due to Jewish and Cuban influences.  Retired people, for what they're worth, don't care too much about housing prices either.

The demographics are just awful in Florida.  Y'all are too quick to get excited about this, especially after Rasmussen has been all over the place lately.

Obama IS advertising in Flordia but McCain isn't.

[??????????]

Obama IS advertising in Flordia but McCain isn't.

Yes, he is.

[bullmoose88]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

[Lunar]

Obama IS advertising in Flordia but McCain isn't.

Yes, he is.

Just joking, never mind

[Flying Dog]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

[War on Want]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Ummmmmmm no for many reasons.

[bullmoose88]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

Obviously! My God what was I possibly thinking?

Only that Obama seriously underperformed in the parts of the state (save Philadelphia proper) that a democrat needs to do well in to win.

Now yes, you are correct in saying that there isn't necessarily a direct link.  However, given the nature of the candidates, and the distinct possibility race and other issues might become a factor...and the relatively high number of Reagan democrats (relative to other democrats in suburban Philly)...and how Obama faired exceptionally poorly in those areas where Bucks, Montco Reagan democrats live...gives McCain a fairly decent shot.

But McCain needs to make sure those liberal and moderate Republicans aren't crossing for Obama either.

[bullmoose88]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Ummmmmmm no for many reasons.

Ummmmmm...I thank you for enlightening me with that substantial post.

[Smash255]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

Obviously! My God what was I possibly thinking?

Only that Obama seriously underperformed in the parts of the state (save Philadelphia proper) that a democrat needs to do well in to win.

Now yes, you are correct in saying that there isn't necessarily a direct link.  However, given the nature of the candidates, and the distinct possibility race and other issues might become a factor...and the relatively high number of Reagan democrats (relative to other democrats in suburban Philly)...and how Obama faired exceptionally poorly in those areas where Bucks, Montco Reagan democrats live...gives McCain a fairly decent shot.

But McCain needs to make sure those liberal and moderate Republicans aren't crossing for Obama either.

I'll admit i was wrong when it came down to MontCo & Bucks in the primary, but I really don't see anyway that Obama not doing as well in those areas during the Primary transfers over into the General. 

I think Obama underperformed in Bucs & montco vs expectations was due more to the pro-Clinton vote than an anti-Obama vote.  Quite simply economics played a major role in the vote and Clinton was seen as the stronger candidate on economic issues.  I doubt that many of the Pro-Clinton economic voters in bucks & MontCo are going to vote for someone with the exact same economic platform as Bush.

[Keystone Phil]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

What don't people understand? We're not saying that "Primary = General" but there are still very similar factors. The types of Democrats that we're talking about are very open to voting for a McCain type Republican. Some of you are being way too naive.

[bullmoose88]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

Obviously! My God what was I possibly thinking?

Only that Obama seriously underperformed in the parts of the state (save Philadelphia proper) that a democrat needs to do well in to win.

Now yes, you are correct in saying that there isn't necessarily a direct link.  However, given the nature of the candidates, and the distinct possibility race and other issues might become a factor...and the relatively high number of Reagan democrats (relative to other democrats in suburban Philly)...and how Obama faired exceptionally poorly in those areas where Bucks, Montco Reagan democrats live...gives McCain a fairly decent shot.

But McCain needs to make sure those liberal and moderate Republicans aren't crossing for Obama either.

I'll admit i was wrong when it came down to MontCo & Bucks in the primary, but I really don't see anyway that Obama not doing as well in those areas during the Primary transfers over into the General. 

I think Obama underperformed in Bucs & montco vs expectations was due more to the pro-Clinton vote than an anti-Obama vote.  Quite simply economics played a major role in the vote and Clinton was seen as the stronger candidate on economic issues.  I doubt that many of the Pro-Clinton economic voters in bucks & MontCo are going to vote for someone with the exact same economic platform as Bush.

Thats the question, now isn't it?

I'm not familiar with Long Island and if it has a decent number of Reagan Dems (or just plenty of moderate repubs, or former republicans)...but the inner suburbs of Southeastern PA...home of the Reagan dem in this part of the state (plenty out west by Pitt too)...well aren't exactly progressive when it comes to race (Lower Bucks has had, well...its share of unfortunate racial instances in the past).

I also don't know if the following also exists in some form on Long Island, but there still is, regardless of partisan divide, a big divide between Philadelphia and the Burbs...crime filled (no one says it but they mean african american related crime) Philly and the relatively serene (and pretty white burbs).  

So yeah, you probably have something in that there was a Pro-Clinton vote in the PA primary because of economic issues, and for 80% or even 90% of the suburban dems voting for her, it wasn't an anti-Barack vote.  But I can't discount the serious possibility of a Bradley effect among PA's Reagan Democrats...(now there are other factors, how much do they like McCain, could they bring themselves to vote for a Republican in this climate etc)...especially when PA was decided by about 150-200k votes 4 years ago.  You start moving those Reagan dems on the race issue from Democrat to McCain, and it gets tricky.

Never discount the GOP to shy away from a distasteful issue.

[Keystone Phil]

home of the Reagan dem in this part of the state (plenty out west by Pitt too)...well aren't exactly progressive when it comes to race (Lower Bucks has had, well...its share of unfortunate racial instances in the past).

Bingo!

[bullmoose88]

home of the Reagan dem in this part of the state (plenty out west by Pitt too)...well aren't exactly progressive when it comes to race (Lower Bucks has had, well...its share of unfortunate racial instances in the past).

Bingo!

You know rt 13 in Bristol?  There's a diner by a lake that used to fly the Israeli flag...the klan had a big march in front of it not more than 15 years ago.

[Flying Dog]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

What don't people understand? We're not saying that "Primary = General" but there are still very similar factors. The types of Democrats that we're talking about are very open to voting for a McCain type Republican. Some of you are being way too naive.

...and some of those 'very similar factors' would be...? Another equation that doesn't match up is H. Clinton = McCain. There are some very see able differences, also. So....


Just an FYI, (not directed toward just Phil) I don't believe 'Reagen Democrats' exist in any or much measure anymore. They pretty much dissolved after...well...the Reagen years. For example, some label the Democrats in Macomb Co. as 'Reagen Democrats.' They aren't. They're simply just not Democrats anymore....at least in any real sense, DINO would be a more appropriate label.

[bullmoose88]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

What don't people understand? We're not saying that "Primary = General" but there are still very similar factors. The types of Democrats that we're talking about are very open to voting for a McCain type Republican. Some of you are being way too naive.

...and some of those 'very similar factors' would be...? Another equation that doesn't match up is H. Clinton = McCain. There are some very see able differences, also. So....


Just an FYI, (not directed toward just Phil) I don't believe 'Reagen Democrats' exist in any or much measure anymore. They pretty much dissolved after...well...the Reagen years. For example, some label the Democrats in Macomb Co. as 'Reagen Democrats.' They aren't. They're simply just not Democrats anymore....at least in any real sense, DINO would be a more appropriate label.

Would Blue Collar/Working Class, often Gun Owning, Socially moderate at best Democrats be a better name for everyone?

If so, there are still plenty in the hardcore democrat areas of suburban Philly.

[Keystone Phil]

home of the Reagan dem in this part of the state (plenty out west by Pitt too)...well aren't exactly progressive when it comes to race (Lower Bucks has had, well...its share of unfortunate racial instances in the past).

Bingo!

You know rt 13 in Bristol? 

I live right off of 13 (in Philly obviously) about fifteen minutes from Bristol. Believe me, I could totally see a strong Klan presence is some of these trash areas. The village across the street from me (Andalusia) is a nice little community but areas not too far away are pretty filthy.

...and some of those 'very similar factors' would be...? Another equation that doesn't match up is H. Clinton = McCain. There are some very see able differences, also. So....

They aren't necessarily issue based. It's stuff like the Obama elitism, his race, his inexperience. People are very unsure of the guy. They don't like that. I've witnessed it.

[Keystone Phil]

Would Blue Collar/Working Class, often Gun Owning, Socially moderate at best Democrats be a better name for everyone?

Yeah, that's another big deal. It isn't going to help Obama.

[bullmoose88]

home of the Reagan dem in this part of the state (plenty out west by Pitt too)...well aren't exactly progressive when it comes to race (Lower Bucks has had, well...its share of unfortunate racial instances in the past).

Bingo!

You know rt 13 in Bristol? 

I live right off of 13 (in Philly obviously) about fifteen minutes from Bristol. Believe me, I could totally see a strong Klan presence is some of these trash areas. The village across the street from me (Andalusia) is a nice little community but areas not too far away are pretty filthy.

...and some of those 'very similar factors' would be...? Another equation that doesn't match up is H. Clinton = McCain. There are some very see able differences, also. So....

They aren't necessarily issue based. It's stuff like the Obama elitism, his race, his inexperience. People are very unsure of the guy. They don't like that. I've witnessed it.

Another big question is, they might like McCain, or at least more than Obama, but they also don't care for the GOP...which wins out there...their hate for BHO or the GOP, not sure.

[bullmoose88]

Someone needs to check this, but I thought PA has (i don't know in terms of raw membership, or as a percentage) one of the highest Klan memberships in the country...I always heard 2nd after Indiana.

[Keystone Phil]

Another big question is, they might like McCain, or at least more than Obama, but they also don't care for the GOP...which wins out there...their hate for BHO or the GOP, not sure.

How about this? Just stay home. That helps McCain, too/