If Trump wins over 50% in NY and gets a good amount of PA delegates, is he back?

[Lyin' Steve]

Based on this delegate tracking doc, it looks like Trump may do better in Pennsylvania than the 0 most had assumed he'd end up with:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/edit#gid=0
Many of these people either outright support Trump or will support the winner of their district, likely to be Trump given his lead in PA.

Also, Cruz has been bombing out in NY so far while Trump's playing the state like a fiddle.

538's "can you get Trump to 1237" http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/ has Trump at 71 in NY and 0 uncommitted for 1182.  If he wins 50% in NY, that's another 24 for 1206.  He'd only need 31 of the 125 uncommitted delegates then to win the nomination, if he performs at expectations in the other states.  60% of the delegates in Pennsylvania would already get him there.  Obviously he won't get that, but he can also make it up by getting a handful of the other uncommitted delegates.

[Erc]

Based on this delegate tracking doc, it looks like Trump may do better in Pennsylvania than the 0 most had assumed he'd end up with:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/edit#gid=0
Many of these people either outright support Trump or will support the winner of their district, likely to be Trump given his lead in PA.

Also, Cruz has been bombing out in NY so far while Trump's playing the state like a fiddle.

538's "can you get Trump to 1237" http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/ has Trump at 71 in NY and 0 uncommitted for 1182.  If he wins 50% in NY, that's another 24 for 1206.  He'd only need 31 of the 125 uncommitted delegates then to win the nomination, if he performs at expectations in the other states.  60% of the delegates in Pennsylvania would already get him there.  Obviously he won't get that, but he can also make it up by getting a handful of the other uncommitted delegates.

Again, him breaking 50% in New York does not mean Trump wins all 95 delegates in the state.  He would need to win 50% in every single congressional district in order to do so, which is a tall order.  Exactly how much he falls short of 95 is a tough question, of course.

[SillyAmerican]

I think that between NY and CA, Trump is a lock, but this cycle anything is possible...

[Lyin' Steve]

Based on this delegate tracking doc, it looks like Trump may do better in Pennsylvania than the 0 most had assumed he'd end up with:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/edit#gid=0
Many of these people either outright support Trump or will support the winner of their district, likely to be Trump given his lead in PA.

Also, Cruz has been bombing out in NY so far while Trump's playing the state like a fiddle.

538's "can you get Trump to 1237" http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/ has Trump at 71 in NY and 0 uncommitted for 1182.  If he wins 50% in NY, that's another 24 for 1206.  He'd only need 31 of the 125 uncommitted delegates then to win the nomination, if he performs at expectations in the other states.  60% of the delegates in Pennsylvania would already get him there.  Obviously he won't get that, but he can also make it up by getting a handful of the other uncommitted delegates.

Again, him breaking 50% in New York does not mean Trump wins all 95 delegates in the state.  He would need to win 50% in every single congressional district in order to do so, which is a tall order.  Exactly how much he falls short of 95 is a tough question, of course.

Is that true?  The networks told me that if he gets over 50% then he automatically gets all 95 delegates.

EDIT:  Looks like I misunderstood.  Apparently NY is proportional statewide and only turns WTA if Trump gets over 50%, but district-wise it's the same as every other state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, he has still the biggest shot for the nomination.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

What do you mean, "back?"

A. He didn't go away, he just lost in an unfriendly state by more than expected.
B. He still will need to crush it in IN and CA to get to 1237.

[Ljube]

The Art of the Comeback.

[President Johnson]

LOL, TRUMP was never gone.

[Lyin' Steve]

What do you mean, "back?"

A. He didn't go away, he just lost in an unfriendly state by more than expected.
B. He still will need to crush it in IN and CA to get to 1237.

I typed back on track and it got cut off.

[Wisconsin+17]

On the contrary, NY is do or die for Trump. First of this campaign since FL and SC.

[Erc]

I'd heard talk of this mythical spreadsheet, but hadn't managed to find it yet.

Thanks for the link!