Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1503732767569420296
Could be a feint, could be the real thing.

Ukraine decommissioned its dedicated anti-ship missiles sometime around 2018 in expectation of a newer, domestically manufactured missile. That missile had at least one test launcher in working order at the start of the invasion. Various delays in manufacture and integrating the systems happened; it’s not clear whether the Navy already had some of these in service or whether the batch coming in April 2022 would have been the first. Russia hit warehouses in Odessa in the first few days of the invasion, and may have taken these systems out before they could see much use.

Preventing the Ukrainian military-industrial complex from developing its own cruise, anti-ship and ballistic missiles was probably a factor in why the Russian invasion happened when it did.

Without even considering the captures seen yesterday, Ukraine’s fleet is hopelessly outgunned and coastal defence against ships is going to be crap without anti-ship missiles. They should ask Bulgaria, Poland and Romania for their P-15s, which is the type they used to use. This may not even work if those countries have no ground launchers and Ukraine has no ships left that are capable of carrying them.

[jaichind]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

F**k, we're screwed, man, Biden just lost all of his financial assets in Russia.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wonder if we won't start seeing large scale Ukrainian counter attacks then.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1503713698879348738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw... 

Tbh, I hope so. Usually the guerilla ratio was the invading force needed 10 times the menpower? It's not a pure guerilla war at this point, though 200k would be significant.

[jaichind]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

F**k, we're screwed, man, Biden just lost all of his financial assets in Russia.

Reminds me of the joke John McCain had when he was sanctions by Russia where he said that he can now no longer go to his Russian dacha.  I do not McCain and disagree with him on all sorts of stuff including policy with Russia but I agree that comment was pretty funny.

[Sir Mohamed]

Macron offers French asylum to woman disrupting Russian State Propaganda TV with anti-war protest.

https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1503742582752526336

[compucomp]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

Did they sanction Hunter Biden? Trololololol?

[AndyHogan14]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

I find it hilarious that Hillary Clinton is randomly on the list as well.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1503752794158911493?s=20&t=VBC552r...

[Sir Mohamed]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

I find it hilarious that Hillary Clinton is randomly on the list as well.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1503752794158911493?s=20&t=VBC552r...

pRooF tHaT sHE's ruNiNG 4 pREZ iN 2o24!!1!

Surprised VP Kamala Harris isn't on the list, lol.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

I find it hilarious that Hillary Clinton is randomly on the list as well.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1503752794158911493?s=20&t=VBC552r...

This is low-grade bait for “post-left” morons, Republicans and especially Trump, who Putin wants on-side or at least parroting Kremlin-approved talking points. I think it will largely fail at this point due to how badly Russia has botched the information war.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

Did they sanction Hunter Biden? Trololololol?

They did. Good propaganda value in that.

[It’s so Joever]

The ruble is stabilizing and Russia is still going at Ukraine in full force. Meanwhile they still are making advances and Ukrainian resistance can’t hold forever without further support.
I don’t know what the goal of the doves is here to be honest. Keeping the status quo exactly as is will just mean a protracted war that will eventually be a Russian victory to the extent Putin wants Ukraine, and very likely an actual genocide that makes what China is doing with Uyghurs look kind out of retaliation…
At the very “best”, Russia’s economy does somehow crumble to the point it becomes more reliant on…China. I’m not sure if that’s helpful in any way.
Will Russia stop at Ukraine anyways? Hard to say. They will need a few years to reorganize their military after this, for the West to forget (thanks Doves), and to invest in their “Russification” of Ukraine, so they will be busy for a while. When they do complete those objectives, it’s likely Putin won’t even be in power anymore, so how far Russia chooses to go is up to the next leader. They probably will go for Georgia fully if it’s not in NATO by then if they do choose to expand further.

I fully expect countries near Russia, China, India, or the US to either ally extremely closely (basically becoming a puppet) with their neighbor or start investing in nuclear weapon creation. This war and the response of the doves makes clear that the ONLY way for your country and people to not be mass murdered is to develop your own nuclear weapons. The post-WW2 precedents and treaties set are just further proving to be a facade to anyone watching. Even NATO countries on the border such as Poland may be spooked into secretly developing some sort of WOMDs.
Actual successes of such investments will likely be limited…but even one more country with nukes of any strength increases the chance of an accident that leads to the nuclear war GOTFan talks a lot about.

There is no situation in which the status quo “works” in favor of the West. Early tactical blunders don’t matter when you have the sheer firepower to overcome such blunders and learn from your mistakes.

At least Compucomp is honest about his allegiances and goals, even if I may be opposed to them. I am not seeing that honesty from a lot of the doves on here, instead just them having to resort to ignoring these very valid arguments and ironically straight up calling anyone who dares disagree with them as “warning nuclear war”.

[ugabug]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

I find it hilarious that Hillary Clinton is randomly on the list as well.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1503752794158911493?s=20&t=VBC552r...

Probably retaliation for calling out Russia's favorite useful idiot Tulsi Gabbard.

[Person Man]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

Did they sanction Hunter Biden? Trololololol?

They did.

[jaichind]

Putin: Ukraine not serious about finding acceptable solution

[AndyHogan14]

Putin: Ukraine not serious about finding acceptable solution

Ukraine is not willing to accept complete capitulation?! How dare they!
-Vladimir V. Putin (probably)

[It’s so Joever]

The Russians have fully captured Teple in Luhansk. It was likely already surrounded and never of major significance. Meanwhile, it seems the Ukrainians may have fought the Russians off from Vovovnesenk. While not a huge setback, this will delay the capturing of Odessa for a bit.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1503533835035811841

[Storr]

The losses really are piling up for the Russians:

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1503496313232662532?s=20&t=AC3fKGh...

there are some deaths reported in media not yet included on the list, like Captain Alexey Glushchak of the GRU (Russian military intelligence) and others not included on the above list, but on this one I found on reddit:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-gru-general-killed-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-b987888.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/te0dt3/list_of_killedcaptured_russian_officers_march_14/

I've been focusing and posting on Russian officer casualties because it's rather depressing to read about the enlisted getting killed, whom are mostly younger than I. Even if the Russians are clearly on the "wrong side" in the war, which they are, 19 year olds aren't the ones who are making the decisions.

19 year old Yegor Alexandrovich Kanatnikov of Orel, Orel Oblast

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1503438929445498882?s=20&t=1Ej3s64KirU...

19 year old Nikolai Sergeevich Kalinin of Borovichi, Novgorod Oblast

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1503049253542928385?s=20&t=1Ej3s64KirU...

19 year old Kirill Seravkin of Artyom, Primorsky Krai

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1503484018926538762?s=20&t=1Ej3s64KirU...

Not to copy our friend from Oregon, Nova Green, but reading about 19 year old casualties in Ukraine reminded me of a song: Paul Hardcastle's 1985 hit 19.
He "was inspired to create the song after watching Vietnam Requiem and comparing his own life at 19 to those of the soldiers featured: "...what struck me was how young the soldiers were: the documentary said their average age was 19. I was out having fun in pubs and clubs when I was 19, not being shoved into jungles and shot at.""

link for the official music video, which is age restricted, so embedding it on the forum would result in a notice and hyperlink to watch it on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sajngb0W6I

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1503751361946693641

There have been rumours of likely mutinies. All of this is very interesting.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1503751361946693641

There have been rumours of likely mutinies. All of this is very interesting.

Don't take anything Lukashenko says at face value:

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1497337796855533575?s=20&t=Gwx8xip7...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1503751361946693641

There have been rumours of likely mutinies. All of this is very interesting.

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent troops, there would be another coup and Putin is probably too busy to save him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't take anything Lukashenko says at face value

I don't. But it's interesting that this has been said given everything else, and it's clear that, at the very least, there's serious vacillation about actually committing Belarussian troops.

[Logical]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

F**k, we're screwed, man, Biden just lost all of his financial assets in Russia.

Reminds me of the joke John McCain had when he was sanctions by Russia where he said that he can now no longer go to his Russian dacha.  I do not McCain and disagree with him on all sorts of stuff including policy with Russia but I agree that comment was pretty funny.

Russian meme from 2015


Barrack: Now I can't visit Ust-Izhevsk
Clinton: My Sberbank account is frozen
Michelle: My children will not be allowed to study in Kaluga
Kerry: I won't be able to take a vacation at Lake Seliger

[Badger]

Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

I find it hilarious that Hillary Clinton is randomly on the list as well.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1503752794158911493?s=20&t=VBC552r...

 Hate her all you want, but Hilary has had he has had one of the most consistently funny Twitter feeds in Washington for years now. Don't know What ratio of tweets are staff staff written versus personal, but whoever authors them needs to be commended.