Scott Walker recall goes live

[AmericanNation]

LIKE WHAT 52% - 48%? 

[AmericanNation]

LIKE WHAT 52% - 48%?  

I'm thinking more like a 51%-49% Walker victory personally.

Yea, Walker is sitting on something like 50.5% to 55%.  He has been there since the 2010 campaign 3 years ago.  The only brief dip below may have been when people were confused as to way an insurrection was occurring.  Given how substance free his opposition has been I can't see him getting under 50.5%.       

[AmericanNation]

what momentum?  People are wondering how much he's damaged himself for the future. 

[AmericanNation]

It also just dawned on me that the recall is in TWO DAYS! I'm excited (and a nerd)!

...I have to vote AGAIN, so that my candidate wins AGAIN.  I will probably set a record for votes in a year that I won't break for the rest of my life.  The really good thing about meeting the President of the United States is the FOOD. They put you in this little room with just about anything you'd want to eat or drink. But since, number one, I wasn't hungry, but THIRSTY, and number two, they was free, I must have drank me about fifteen Dr. Peppers.

[AmericanNation]

scottyp,
People are polarized yes, but many non-republicans are rightfully mad at the fact that the recall is happening.  They also have witnessed the countless blunders and boorish behavior by the leftists.  Combine that with the substance free campaign the dems have run and these people will effectively block a Barrett victory by not voting, voting for the first time, or crossing over to Walker.  If not for this phenomenon I wouldn't feel as confident as I do.  Barrett has virtually no path to victory, their aren't enough votes out there for him.  If he won 100% of the undecideds at this point he would still lose.           

[AmericanNation]

The map is going to be pretty damn similar to the 2010 one, no matter what. It'll be interesting to see what (if anything) looks different.

I'd be surprised if Walker wins La Crosse again this time.

Feingold won La Crosse too. I'm wondering who could possibly vote Walker/Feingold.

It's been going on forever.  Look at the old Thompson/Feingold ticket splitting.  Probably has something to do with the Madison media market and my "Norwegian theory."   

[AmericanNation]

Stuff coming across my desk pertaining to the recall:

The #WIUnionDesperation twitter hashtag is hilarious.  Examples: Scott Walker was the one who suggested that Fonzi "jump the shark" and Scott Walker created the BCS!
Some are wisconsin-centric like: Scott Walker HATES kringle and Scott Walker told T. J. Rubley to call an audible. Or  Scott Walker once ate cheese from California!
Intrade has Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 93.0% to win @Intrade -

Waukesha Students Stand With Walker
http://thedinnertableblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/04/waukesha-students-stand-with-walker/

#recall desperation

Moment of Decision: Turnout models favor GOP incumbent in WI recall
http://freebeacon.com/moment-of-decision/

On eve of Wis. recall, one thing is clear: Romney will add state to its targeted list-for now http://nyti.ms/K8CaH8 #wirecall

MacIver Institute ‏@MacIverWisc
See chart -> Big Labor will spend in excess of $20 million in reportable expenditures for the recall #wiright...http://fb.me/Wk9KRJ2h

Bummer. Democrat’s Walker Love Child Story Falls Apart… In About an Hour http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/06/bummer-democrats-walker-love-child-story-falls-apart-in-a-little-over-an-hour/

Union head likens Walker reforms to 9/11 attacks. Obama national co-chair defends it http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/jesse-jackson-rallies-party-faithful-wisconsin_646471.html

The stakes in the Wisconsin recall. - http://WSJ.comhttp://on.wsj.com/M1oUJl

PPP results in #WIRECALL are inconsistent. Why is his approval rating (51 percent) higher than his vote number (50)? 

the fact that PPP isn't telegraphing the result means it's seriously bad hews for Barrett. They love to hype the good polls. Barrett's campaign is already tweeting their tracking polls, which is their usual effort at counter spin.

Walker responds to Dem "love child" attacks, calling them "sickening" and "crap." Predicts they will backfire. http://bit.ly/LdXmvx

 WOW... look at this HUGE #wiunion crowd for Barrett at Jesse Jackson event http://yfrog.com/ntob5eij

George Will: Wisconsin's Peter Pan Progressivism: http://wapo.st/JYmqgx”

900 show up for Clinton yesterday, 4,000 in Racine today for Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch

Chicago and Boston will focus on how big Walker wins.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/the-number-that-will-matter-in-wisconsin-5krk

Finally a piece on the boyscout son of a preacher: Scott Walker. 
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/301648/preachers-son-robert-costa

 @RepPaulRyan: "On Tuesday, we save Wisconsin. And in November, Wisconsin saves America."

http://www.wigderson.com/index.php/2012/06/03/how-disgusting-and-low-will-the-democrats-go/

[AmericanNation]

Most likely range
 
Walker wins by 1 to 7
more likely 3 to 5

I'll pick 4 points

a X-factor variable is that 'other guy' is drawing from Barrett 0.5 to 2 % of the vote.

Walker:         52
Barrett:     < 47.5
Other guy:  > 0.5

[AmericanNation]

Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.

Everything I'm finding says it still exists, but there's a new requirement to prove residency of about a month.

I'm 99.9% sure, same day registration is in effect. 

The only confusion is from some parts of the voter ID bill being in effect and other parts being under a temporary injunction from a Dane County judge. 

A part that is still in effect extended the residency requirement from approximately 10 days to a month.       

[AmericanNation]

I don't think it will matter since almost nobody will vote for him but does the other dude on the ballot seem like he leans to the left or the right?

He seems to be drawing almost entirely from Barrett.  It is probably more of a protest vote against the recall by 'non' republicans, than his positions.  

The guy has a heavy Indian (as in India) accent and his ads generally just take the other sides negative attacks and combine them.  Ex: Barrett's record in Milwaukee sucks and Walker made budget cuts, vote for me, if my policies don't work I'll return my pay.    

[AmericanNation]

Turnout, in Republican areas early on, looks to be highest ever.  

People could be motivated/anxious to finally get it over with OR it is/will be legitimately the largest turnout.  ...Something to check tonight.  

[AmericanNation]

The GOP talked about getting rid of same-day registration, but in the end they didn't; it wasn't in the bill that introduced the photo ID requirement.

The new 28-day residency requirement, though, is particularly problematic for the current June election, since it is less than 28 days since the end of the academic year when many students left residence and returned to their home areas. This has caused a lot of confusion over where students are supposed to vote.

I don't want to pick a fight, but if you can't figure out how to register to vote (with Wisconsin's extremely [small L] liberal registration laws), than you shouldn't be in college or vote for that matter. 

State Residency is not Ward residency.  You can easily prove state residency AND Ward residency in a students case.  It is ONE SMALL extra step in an EXTREMELY permissive process. 

FYI, We almost never take people off the rolls, unless someone asks/demands to be, so just go to the easiest place (for you) that you are on the voter roll.  ex: your parent's house's ward.        

[AmericanNation]

Jesus... I used to live in Tweet 1... If that's true, that is farking huge... and really bad news for Barrett. Of course, it sounds like everyone over 18 in the state plans on voting today.

I think that is true of the Walker side.  Barrett will have high turnout in some wards, low in others.

[AmericanNation]

Just realized (because i never thought of it) you could draw a north south line through where I live and never hit a democrat county.  That's about 280 miles from Illinois to the UP.   

[AmericanNation]

Just realized (because i never thought of it) you could draw a north south line through where I live and never hit a democrat county.  That's about 280 miles from Illinois to the UP.   

You could almost do the same thing in the western part of the state and never hit a Republican county. The East-West divide of this state is crazy.

historically I think the divide flipped parties a couple of times over issues like prohibition and allowing schools to teach in German. 

You also have a heavier concentration of industry/manufacturing consistantly, shore to 50-75 miles inland (from lake Michigan) running north south from Illinois to green bay.     

[AmericanNation]

Voted around 5:00.  Turnout at my Heavily Republican voting place is up over 60% from the primary and people are likely to pile in at a heavier rate after 5 as work ends.  Walker looks to be outperforming 2010.   

[AmericanNation]

Van Hollen/Falk race for Attorney General in 2006 proved Wisconsin exit pols favor dems by quite a bit.   

[AmericanNation]

have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

[AmericanNation]

have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

Where are you getting that from?

His arse, everything I've read says that turnout is record breaking there: 200 new voters registered at one heavily Latino ward in central Milwaukee.

I wasn't talking about the entire day, just that point in time.  chill.  

[AmericanNation]

reports... GOP base votes in Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha Counties are off the charts

[AmericanNation]

have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

Where are you getting that from?

His arse, everything I've read says that turnout is record breaking there: 200 new voters registered at one heavily Latino ward in central Milwaukee.

I wasn't talking about the entire day, just that point in time.  chill.  

Who was reporting simultaneously from five places in Milwaukee that no one was voting? I trust this is up on the web somewhere.

Brookfield Elementary (wd11,12,13) 2,687 cast as of 5pm 2,982 cast there, total, in Nov 2010
 
...apparently Stephen Hayes was the source

[AmericanNation]

No offense, but have you ever worked an election in a city before? You get large numbers of people only after work. Do you think they stopped at 5.

if you have a question ask.  I obviously know that and FYI, Brookfield is a Republican suburb.  

[AmericanNation]

Despite raising $30 million, Scott Walker's election night event is cash bar. That might actually justify a recall.

[AmericanNation]

Precincts in Milwaukee are running out of ballots, according to MSNBC.

They always say that so they can keep the polls open an extra few hours ...predictable.  

[AmericanNation]

Walker is running respectably in Madison suburbs
http://countyofdane.com/clerk/elect2012r2.html