JRP1994
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,048
|
 |
« on: August 10, 2013, 02:18:14 PM » |
|
Oregon:
PVI: D+5
Elasticity: 1.16 (11th most elastic state)
Analysis:
Oregon is a democratic-leaning state that can become competitive under the right circumstances. Though it is highly elastic, it is not a swing-state, as the Democrats outnumber the Republicans in the state by a good margin. The state tends to favor environmentalist and socially-liberal policies, which makes it a poor fit for the modern GOP. It is not near the tipping-point of the nation; a Democrat that loses Oregon has likely already lost FL, OH, VA, IA, CO, NH, PA, WI, MN, NV, ME-02, MI, and NM.
However, as evidenced by 2000 and 2004, Oregon can become a battleground state in an election in which the Republican candidate wins. And the state's high elasticity score indicates that, if a moderate/centrist Republican candidate (think McCain 2000) seriously contested Oregon (serious meaning with the intensity of campaigning in Ohio), it could become much closer.
Preliminary 2016 Rating : LIKELY DEMOCRAT, due to high elasticity and uncertainty about the 2016 political climate.
|
