Rep. Jim Saxton to retire

[Brittain33]

This will be another Dem pickup.

Diane Allen wins the seat by five over Adler.

If she's running, I'd say her chances depend a lot on who the Republicans nominate for President, because it's a D+3 district and she can't hope to compete financially with Adler in an expensive media market.

[Brittain33]

And even if there does wind up being a significant gap, it should be noted that Allen's years as an evening news anchor on WCAU (CBS Philly) gives her a tremendous positive name ID advantage.  That's got to be worth at least $1 million in the bank.

She hasn't been on tv in 10 years, and I don't know how one could tease out the advantages of incumbency in a small part of the CD from what advantages she'd have running in a much larger district. She also looks much different now, to be polite about it.

But the race is about to start, so we'll see soon enough if Allen raises the cash she needs and polls well against Adler. He's certainly got his own structural disadvantages.

Have the Democrats successfully caged Susan Bass Levin?

[Brittain33]

And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results?  Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.

1. The 7th district race in 2000 was much closer than it had any right to be because of Gore's coattails, just as the 1998 race was unreasonably competitive due to revulsion at Monicagate. Ferguson outran Bush, but Bush so far underperformed in that district that he dragged Ferguson down. You have to look at the spread, not just the results.

1a. 2000 was a great year for House Republicans everywhere but California and southern Arkansas. You swept the open seats, by and large. The generic ballot for 2008 still looks the way it did in 2006, when Republicans didn't do as well as in 2000.

2. Clinton's coattails in 1996 helped Bill Pascrell take out Bill Martini. Having the Republican candidate identified with the regionalist conservatives who dominate the party is the kiss of death in N.J.

3. If Bush were running in 2002, he'd have far outrun his numbers in 2000, as you surely know.

Maybe Diane Allen will win. We'll have to see how this plays out. I can understand the appeal of the kind of moderate Republicanism she represents and why you'd want that to return to Washington. However, given the potential toxic climate and financial problems northern Republicans will face in 2008, and the strong disconnect between state and federal partisanship (anyone want to promote a MS legislative Democrat for senator?), there is just no way for someone to shut down this discussion by declaring Allen will win and anyone who disagrees just doesn't get it.

Maybe she'll win. Maybe Adler will win. But this isn't 2002, and it isn't 2003.

[Brittain33]

It sounds like if the Republicans can successfully convince voters that Sen. Adler is from Jersey City and will go to Congress to funnel money to North Jersey, the same dynamic that has come into play in all of those other elections will sweep Diane Allen into office.

[Brittain33]

It's Toss Up/Lean Rep if Diane Allen is the GOP nominee.

Ok. I think the reason this thread has gotten so involved is because I would have described your view as Likely Rep from the way you fleshed out the scenarios.

I don't agree with your assessment, but I don't think it's an unreasonable approach to the race.

[Brittain33]

The problem is that it is looking increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and he will be of no help and could even hurt in this district.

Here's a question: we can all come up with states where Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain helps with down-ticket races.

Is there any place in the country where Mitt Romney would have a positive effect? Idaho and Utah max out Republican already. It isn't Massachusetts, and come November, it won't be New Hampshire, either. Maybe he could return UT-2 to the Republicans with a strong candidate, but everywhere else, you think "aw geez, Romney's going to kill it for the Republican."