Idaho Politics Weekly: Trump +21, but #Under50

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Here are three possible scenarios in Idaho:

Median Prediction:
Trump 57%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 9%

Low Republican Turnout:
Trump 54%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 9%

Johnson Catches Fire:
Trump 50%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 18%

For those who doubt the latter scenario, it's worth noting that Clinton and Trump are arguably the most despised politicians in history in Idaho (and Utah). Nearly everyone in Idaho is afflicted by Clinton derangement syndrome. Similarly, Trump is toxic in Idaho and not only among Mormons. Outside of some small pockets of logging and mining territory, Idaho Republicans are ideologues, people who exude a "consistent conservativism" that prioritizes economic issues and that tends to be a bit libertarian flavored, particularly regarding land-use, guns but also marijuana, NSA spying and foreign wars. Trump is anathema to these types, who quite liked Cruz. This doesn't even begin to mention Trump's weaknesses among ag-business types/farmers, who are very reliant on immigrant labor, and Mormons.

Unless this election is very close, ala 2000, Idaho's swing map will be a veritable bloodbath. It's very unlikely that Clinton will perform well but Trump will be murdered by voters who have already shown a propensity for voting for third-party candidates and by Mormons who, in the right circumstances, give Democrats 30% of the vote or so. If the latter scenario occurs, which would be a perfect storm that's incredibly unlikely, Clinton could make this a 10 point race.