Germany megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Liar, liar, eco-friendly coal on fire.

https://twitter.com/weplanetint/status/1783722796834869569

The bombshell investigation from Cicero: Habeck's secret files: How the Greens cheated on the nuclear phase-out. The nuclear power files of the Ministry of Economic Affairs released by Cicero show how Green Party puppetmasters manipulated the decision to extend the operating life of German nuclear power plants in 2022.

Here is an English summary.

That tweet sounds a bit misleading and contradicts the actual facts.

The actual allegation is that undersecretaries of state in Habeck's ministry withheld information regarding the nuclear phase-out, so that it didn't reach the minister.

Here the tweet is about a supposed "collusion" between Habeck and his undersecretaries of state. How can there be a collusion between them when the allegation is that one side didn't forward information to the other?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anyway, speaking of collusions, SPIEGEL now reports about strategy paper for the AfD from 2022 that had been jointly developed by the AfD and the Kremlin (in German, behind a paywall, but information will be freely available somewhere soon, I guess):

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-spionageaffaere-russland-und-china-im-fokus-neue-enthuellungen-belasten-die-partei-a-46042b96-2d61-4bb4-ac25-ead57d7d6285

[President Johnson]

Anyway, speaking of collusions, SPIEGEL now reports about strategy paper for the AfD from 2022 that had been jointly developed by the AfD and the Kremlin (in German, behind a paywall, but information will be freely available somewhere soon, I guess):

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-spionageaffaere-russland-und-china-im-fokus-neue-enthuellungen-belasten-die-partei-a-46042b96-2d61-4bb4-ac25-ead57d7d6285

AfD is strongly competing with BSW on who is the bigger Kremlin shill. What a disgrace these Russia First parties are.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD is strongly competing with BSW on who is the bigger Kremlin shill. What a disgrace these Russia First parties are.

I think AfD has already won that contest, unless BSW is very good in covering up their money payments from and espionage for the Kremlin.

[Storr]

A 57 year old Russian citizen stabbed to death two Ukrainian men (aged 23 and 36) Saturday afternoon near the Tengelmann Center in Murnau, Bavaria. He is in police custody. There's a lot of internet speculation about the motive for the crime, but none of that has been confirmed at this time so I will not comment on it.

https://www.polizei.bayern.de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/066284/index.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

The post-Ukraine foreign policy realignment exemplified by European election campaign posters:

AfD - "Protect the peace."

Greens - "A strong Europe means a safe Germany."

[Storr]

A 57 year old Russian citizen stabbed to death two Ukrainian men (aged 23 and 36) Saturday afternoon near the Tengelmann Center in Murnau, Bavaria. He is in police custody. There's a lot of internet speculation about the motive for the crime, but none of that has been confirmed at this time so I will not comment on it.

https://www.polizei.bayern.de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/066284/index.html

"Killing of two Ukrainian soldiers may be political, German prosecutors say http://reut.rs/4dlSWrh"

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1784959635759198376

[Estrella]

Reuters: G7 offers leeway to Germany, Japan in deal to quit coal by 2035

Bloomberg: Germany Set to Pay More Coal Plants to Prevent Blackouts

Really makes you wonder if other European countries should even bother reducing emissions. Romania, a much poorer country than Germany, is going ahead with phasing out coal in eight years. Hungary will phase out coal in three years. Slovakia just shut down all of its coal mines and coal-fired power plants and it got nothing. Poland is trying to replace coal with green energy and all it got in return was a storm of protests from German state governments. Germany replaced clean nuclear power with the dirtiest coal in Europe and it got a specially carved out exemption that says they can pollute for as long and as much as they want. In return, the German government vetoed a G7 proposal to endorse nuclear energy as a tool to fight climate change. What's the point?

[CumbrianLefty]

Ngl, the German love affair with lignite does seem pretty bizarre to many of us outside the country.

[Storr]

Red Army Faction moment?

"Activists (“left-wing extremists”) claim responsibility for burning down the summer home of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger. Their issues with him center on Rheinmetall’s refurbishment of German Leopard tanks for Ukraine. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/01/german-left-wing-arsonists-attack-home-of-rheinmetall-chief/"

[Yeahsayyeah]

Estrella and his crusade for electricity from nuclear power looks a bit strange from inside Germany as almost 60 per cent of German electricity in 2023 came out of renewables. Coal was at 26 per cent (and a third lower than 2022).

The total amount of electricity coming out of coal in 2023 was the lowest since the 50s/60s (depending on the type of coal)

https://www.focus.de/earth/analyse/deutschlands-verblueffende-strombilanz-fuer-2023_id_259541738.html

This doesn't really look like the "Germany is getting more dependent on coal" trope some are pushing here. It really is more of a phantom discussion...like the one about nuclear power.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Estrella and his crusade for electricity from nuclear power looks a bit strange from inside Germany as almost 60 per cent of German electricity in 2023 came out of renewables. Coal was at 26 per cent (and a third lower than 2022).

The total amount of electricity coming out of coal in 2023 was the lowest since the 50s/60s (depending on the type of coal)

https://www.focus.de/earth/analyse/deutschlands-verblueffende-strombilanz-fuer-2023_id_259541738.html

This doesn't really look like the "Germany is getting more dependent on coal" trope some are pushing here. It really is more of a phantom discussion...like the one about nuclear power.

It's a complex issue.

An increased dependency on coal did happen, at least temporarily, last year. The argument in favour is that coal is more "flexible" than nuclear power, because it can quickly be hooked up and removed from the electricity grids at will and is therefore better suited to serve as a temporary supplement for renewables. Nuclear power in the other hand is seen as blocking the expansion of renewables since it works the opposite way.

It boils down to the question what your long-term strategy is. Do you aim for 100% renewables or do you plan on NPPs as the basis for your energy sector with a supplement of renewables.

Since last year, Germany also became somewhat more dependent on energy imports from abroad. Contrary to popular belief, the majority of those energy imports come from renewables too.

For this calender week (starting April 29) the breakdown of energy production in Germany is as follows:

74% renewables
21.5% fossils (12% coal, 8% gas, 2% others)
5% foreign imports

[Yeahsayyeah]

I know, that it's a complex issue. I was pushing back against the oversimplistic "German energy sector is doomed and fully dependent on coal for all time" narrative, some are pushing here and everywhere.

And if one goes by flexibility and relative "cleanness", natural gas would be the best of the fossil fuels - and these are two reasons (besides the abundance and relative cheapness of russian gas and the possibility of power-heat coupling) why it was favoured as a "transition technology".

And while I was basically ok with the half year of nuclear extension in 2022/23 because of the percieved insecurity (and let's face it, this was more about perception and absolute worst case scenarios then real needs, in the end) Germany does not need these plants in the long run, the basic course of the nuclear phase out was set in 1999 and despite all the political theatre by the right they only prolonged the phase-out and never reversed it, because it wasn't politically and economically feasible.

[President Johnson]

Ngl, the German love affair with lignite does seem pretty bizarre to many of us outside the country.

Germany should have shut down coal power plants before nuclear, so it was done in the wrong order. However, both are necessary in the long run.

[Middle-aged Europe]

European election candidate Matthias Ecke (SPD) was attacked and severely injured while campaigning in Dresden. He's now in surgery.

This is the latest, and probably most severe, in a series of similar incidents in recent weeks, apparently concentrated on the eastern states and on left-wing politicians from Greens, the Left, and SPD, with AfD supporters as suspected perps.

[President Johnson]

European election candidate Matthias Ecke (SPD) was attacked and severely injured while campaigning in Dresden. He's now in surgery.

This is the latest, and probably most severe, in a series of similar incidents in recent weeks, apparently concentrated on the eastern states and on left-wing politicians from Greens, the Left, and SPD, with AfD supporters as suspected perps.

Deeply concerning, though apparently a sign of time. It seems like we have entered an era in several Western countries in which political differences can't be discussed based on issues anymore and in a civil manner. Anyone not agreeing with me is an enemy of the state/people now. Unfortunately that's one of the negative sideeffects of social media.

[Middle-aged Europe]

European election candidate Matthias Ecke (SPD) was attacked and severely injured while campaigning in Dresden. He's now in surgery.

This is the latest, and probably most severe, in a series of similar incidents in recent weeks, apparently concentrated on the eastern states and on left-wing politicians from Greens, the Left, and SPD, with AfD supporters as suspected perps.

Deeply concerning, though apparently a sign of time. It seems like we have entered an era in several Western countries in which political differences can't be discussed based on issues anymore and in a civil manner. Anyone not agreeing with me is an enemy of the state/people now. Unfortunately that's one of the negative sideeffects of social media.

You could add that China/Russia are using social media to undermine and destabilize Western democracies.

America is thinking about banning TikTok, Germany is attempting a different approach so far, with the Chancellor and other parties like the Greens recently launching their own accounts there after shunning the platform for years.. but some say it is already too late for that.



I also had a bit of a flashback to the recently seen movie Civil War today and it occurred to me that it is something that is also increasingly applicable to the political situation in Germany.

Others pointed out that the last time SPD politicians were beaten up by gangs of far-right thugs was around 1932... back then it used to be called the Sturmabteilung (SA).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Federal minister of the interior Nancy Faeser (SPD) has called a conference of the states' interior ministers next week, to tighten security in response to the recent series of right-wing violence.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Accompanied by his mother (!), a 17-year old German national has surrendered himself to the authorities for the attack on Ecke. He apparently also provided the names of four co-perpetrators.

Meanwhile, the leader of the Saxonian AfD, Jörg Urban, has blamed responsibility for the attack on the SPD itself, arguing that verbal aggression against the AfD naturally leads to physical aggression against the SPD. Quite fittingly he did so in a tweet on "X".

[Middle-aged Europe]

In an apparent retaliatory move, an AfD campaign booth in Dresden was attacked today. Thankfully only property damage (campaign posters and such), the attending AfD member was left unscathed.

[President Johnson]

In an apparent retaliatory move, an AfD campaign booth in Dresden was attacked today. Thankfully only property damage (campaign posters and such), the attending AfD member was left unscathed.

If these idiots only understood that kind of stuff only helps AfD in the end.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In an apparent retaliatory move, an AfD campaign booth in Dresden was attacked today. Thankfully only property damage (campaign posters and such), the attending AfD member was left unscathed.

If these idiots only understood that kind of stuff only helps AfD in the end.

I tend to disagree. While one should obviously obey the law when opposing the AfD (because it is already bad enough that the AfD is undermining our system and the rule of law, they really shouldn't get any further help from others) the effects such events have in actually helping them are miniscule at best IMO.

AfD will always find a reason to paint itself as the victim - because this is basically part of their core identity - and if there are no factual events to back it up they're gonna manufacture some. The AfD's base is gonna swallow up one way or the other.

Case in point: As far as we can we ascertain nobody in the AfD seems to shed any tears over a Member of the European Parliament from the SPD being put into the hospital, while they almost certainly cry foul play about their campaign posters being torn up. When the AfD considers everything that is done to them ten times worse when what they are doing to others, despite the fact that it is arguably the other way around, the issue becomes so blurred that whether you want to see them as a victim is a matter of choice and personal preference  in the end. If you want to root for them you will do so.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

A few things:

1.) CDU Internal Affairs
Today is the CDU party convention for electing the chairman of the party and formally adopting a new election/party program. Merz stands unopposed and will handily be re-elected, no doubt. The party delegates are also expected to adopt a program that will mark a significant shift to the right, especially so on economic issues.

But the question of who the Chancellor candidate will be next year is still a hot debate in the party. While Merz is popular amongst the membership base of the CDU, particularly its conservative wing, it is clear that the liberal wing is skeptical and the Christian-social wing are dissatisfied with Merz himself and the party's direction.

Hendrik Wüst, the governor of Nordrhein-Westfalen, has openly criticized that Merz has excluded a possibly coalition with the Greens, saying that the CDU should be ready to talk with all democratic parties. Previously, Merz had designated the Greens as the CDU's primary enemy, and until the remigration scandal this January, had clearly been making moves to open the CDU up to cooperation with the AfD.

And the chair of the CDU youth wing wrote a scathing letter attacking Daniel Günther (governor of Schleswig-Holstein) that was leaked where he asked the governor "Which party do you really belong to?" when Günther said that the CDU should stick with the centrist course set out by Merkel and try to win back dissatisfied Green and SPD voters.

Wüst and Günther are part of the liberal wing of the CDU and both currently govern their states with the Greens, and stand for maintaining the cordon sanitaire around the AfD.

Head-to-head surveys for preferred Chancellor show that Scholz is still preferred over Merz, while Wüst would run away with the election because of his greater appeal to women and younger and middle-aged voters

2.) Budget Strife, Again
The Greens and SPD are now in open revolt against Lindner's demand for budget cuts at the federal ministries. He had previously demanded that the ministers send him proposals for budget cuts by last Thursday, but two SPD ministers (Nancy Faeser of Interior and Svenja Schulz of Development) and one Green minister (Annalena Baerbock of Foreign) not only did not meet that deadline, but actually said they need more money.

Faeser apparently directly told Lindner that she has no intention of making any budget cuts given the sensitive domestic security situation, with the ongoing refugee/asylum crisis, the spike in political violence, and the tense situation around the Gaza war.

Baerbock and Schulz all demanded more money (2.5 and 1 billion Euros, respectively). Lindner wants to plug a 25 billion Euro budget hole for 2025 without raising taxes and without suspending the debt brake again.

Since three ministers are openly defying the Finance Minister, this could actually blow up the coalition (not likely, but this is definitely a new chapter in Ampelstreit). The 2025 budget is due on July 3rd to be submitted to the Bundestag, which has until November to pass it.

3.) Minimum Wage, Again
It looks like the SPD and Greens are gearing up to formally endorse a 15 Euro minimum wage by 2026 as part of the 2025 election campaign.

Last year some in the SPD started talking about a 14 Euro minimum wage and several individual politicians have already endorsed 15 Euros. The Greens' federal parliamentary group formally endorsed a 15 Euro minimum wage, as have Die Linke and Ver.di (the trade union). The figures come from the new EU directive about minimum wages, which says that minimum wages should be set at a level of 60% of a country's median income, which works out to just over 14 Euros an hour in 2024, just under 15 in 2025, and just above 15 in 2026.

Forsa released a survey conducted over the past month, asking the general population about their opinion on a 15 Euro minimum wage. Overall, 57% are in support of another Bundestag law to raise the minimum wage to 15 Euros an hour, 38% would prefer to continue the current schedule as determined by the minimum wage commission, and 5% were unsure.

Majorities of BSW (67%), SPD (64%), Greens (62%), and AfD (56%) voters are in favor of raising the minimum wage with a law, while only 42% of CDU voters and 35% of FDP voters support it (53% and 62% supported the current schedule).

The SPD and Greens view the minimum wage not only as socially just, but also a vote winner for election time.

The Federal Statistical Office estimates that within six months of implementing the minimum wage increase from 9.60 an hour to 12.00 an hour in October 2022, the share of the low-wage sector in Germany fell from 19% of all workers to 15%, which would be the lowest share since 1995 (!). They further estimate that 5.8 million workers benefited from the 2022 minimum wage hike, not only those who directly saw their hourly wages increase, but also those who made more than 12 Euros per hour before and then also had their wages adjusted upwards accordingly.

The Federal Employment Agency estimates that low-wage workers have made large enough gains to more than offset inflation since its introduction in 2015, while workers with or without a collective agreement have seen slight declines in real wages over the same period.

Previously, the share of the low-wage sector peaked around 2007 at a whopping 23.5% of the labor force. Germany's large growth in the low-wage sector has been controversial not only in the country itself, but also in the rest of Europe, as this is viewed as part of the reason why Germany's trade balances have grown so strongly at the expense of other European countries' balances, as German consumers were sapped of their purchasing power and companies benefited from low wage costs.

The minimum wage increase, along with other trends over the past few years, has actually helped cause income inequality to fall compared to 2019: Germany's Gini coefficient was estimated at 0.320 in 2019, and in 2023, had fallen to 0.300. The Gini coefficient for 2023 actually is 0.01 points lower than the OECD average, but still higher than Germany's numbers in 2000 (0.280) and 1985 (0.263).

Assuming a full-time job working 1,680 hours with 25 days paid vacation, a 12 Euro minimum wage will lead to a gross income of €20.160 per year, a 14 Euro minimum wage will yield €23.520 per year, and €15 Euros per hour will yield €25.200 per year.

The minimum wage is of particular importance to women and East Germans: it is estimated that 18% of women earn the minimum wage compared to 12% of men, and 18% of East Germans earn minimum wage compared to 14% of West Germans.

The SPD and Greens have given "eastern" issues special attention over the past few years, with the promises of equalizing pensions and raising the minimum wage being kept. However, I am not able to tell if working hours and payroll taxes were also equalized. I know that in the 1990s, the standard workweek was set at 38.5 hours in West Germany and 40 hours in East Germany, and payroll taxes for things like pensions and healthcare are higher in the East than in the West. But I can't find any information if any of this is still true and if there are plans to equalize them.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, CDU had a party convention and Friedrich Merz was re-elected as chairman. Media quickly dubbed him "Friedrich Merkel" and stuff because in his convention speech he moved hard to the center, apparently in preparation for a run for Chancellor next year (and I guess all that "soft AfD" sh**t started to become toxic because of reasons).

[Yeahsayyeah]

On the other hand, the main planks were bashing people dependent on social security and bashing migrants, so I don't get the "Friedrich Merkel" jab.