🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

Exit polls show that most voters, including 53% of CDU voters, want a "Germany coalition" between CDU-SPD-FDP, while just 39% of latter want a continuation of the Kenya coalition.

[President Johnson]

New numbers, little movement:

[Mike88]

Election results page:

https://wahlergebnisse.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt21/erg/kreis/lt.15.ergtab.php

[Logical]

Why? There are less voters in all Eastern states (Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Thuringia, Brandenburg...) combined than in Laschet's North Rhine-Westphalia alone.* Their Chancellor preferences are of secondary importance for the federal elections. And always have been.

I don't like it but the CDU is the clear winner of this election. For at least four reasons:

(1) Defended the status quo in the last state election before September.
(2) Significantly overperformed their polling results and attracted many voters from SPD/Linke/etc.
(3) Proved that a clear anti-AfD strategy works (think of the Stahlknecht incident) - even in the East.
(4) Strengthened and secured Laschet's intra-party position.

This is literally the best imaginable scenario for the CDU.
_____

*I really think that this is a fact that cannot be highlighted often enough. Otherwise one can easily get a wrong (or at least distorted) idea of federal politics. The relative population difference between North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony-Anhalt is roughly the same as the one between CA and AL.

I agree. It's a good result for them. I just don't believe that it's going to mean anything in 3 months. As you say, nobody in the west gives a lick of thought about the political wastelands of the East. A bad result could have been fatal for Laschet though.

[Astatine]

Exit polls show that most voters, including 53% of CDU voters, want a "Germany coalition" between CDU-SPD-FDP, while just 39% of latter want a continuation of the Kenya coalition.

Yeah, I think it's gonna be a Germany coalition. Voters in Saxony-Anhalt don't really want the Greens in their state government anymore.


(preferred coalition)


(rating of parties on a scale from -5 to +5)

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why? There are less voters in all Eastern states (Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Thuringia, Brandenburg...) combined than in Laschet's North Rhine-Westphalia alone.* Their Chancellor preferences are of secondary importance for the federal elections. And always have been.

I don't like it but the CDU is the clear winner of this election. For at least four reasons:

(1) Defended the status quo in the last state election before September.
(2) Significantly overperformed their polling results and attracted many voters from SPD/Linke/etc.
(3) Proved that a clear anti-AfD strategy works (think of the Stahlknecht incident) - even in the East.
(4) Strengthened and secured Laschet's intra-party position.

This is literally the best imaginable scenario for the CDU.
_____

*I really think that this is a fact that cannot be highlighted often enough. Otherwise one can easily get a wrong (or at least distorted) idea of federal politics. The relative population difference between North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony-Anhalt is roughly the same as the one between CA and AL.

I agree. It's a good result for them. I just don't believe that it's going to mean anything in 3 months. As you say, nobody in the west gives a lick of thought about the political wastelands of the East. A bad result could have been fatal for Laschet though.

No disagreement here! I also don't think that there will be any relevant long-term effect - and, yes, a bad result would have been more than unpleasant for Laschet.

[Astatine]

Infratest has CDU/SPD one seat short of a majority (41/83). It would be a surprise if Black-Red got a majority again, but it's not completely impossible.

[Mike88]

41.7% counted:

36.9% CDU
24.7% AfD
10.2% Linke
  7.8% SPD
  6.2% FDP
  4.0% Greens
  3.2% FW
  7.0% Others

[Astatine]

CDU/SPD with a majority, damn, that's a surprise.

[Astatine]

With 87 % of the precincts counted, both ARD and ZDF estimate that Black-Red will get a majority. I thought the previous estimate by ARD might have been a fluke, but it looks like the formerly Grand coalition could actually achieve the 42 seats necessary.

The CDU is likely to get one of its best results in Saxony-Anhalt's history (currently it would be the 3rd best, if CDU gains a bit more than expected 2nd best). Even a black-yellow or black-green coalition is just 2 respectively 3 seats short of a majority (almost impossible).

[H. Ross Peron]

Yes, unfortunately, Sahra Wagenknecht has some views related to the pandemic close to Bolsonaro's views. Is she an important member of the party yet?

She was elected top candidate for the NRW list in the federal elections, but with mere 61 %. Support for her within the party is dwindling (same with her husband Oskar Lafontaine).

Does Wagenknecht have extreme anti-lockdown views? I understand she also published a book critiquing identity politics, extreme "open borders" positions on immigration etc., and the state of the modern-day left which naturally has provoked a flurry of controversy but I'm more sympathetic to her on that point.

[pilskonzept]

Does Wagenknecht have extreme anti-lockdown views? I understand she also published a book critiquing identity politics, extreme "open borders" positions on immigration etc., and the state of the modern-day left which naturally has provoked a flurry of controversy but I'm more sympathetic to her on that point.

Extreme, no - but she's clearly joined the anti-mainstream position on this point.

[President Johnson]

Update; the number of seats is now 95 and not 83. A CDU-SPD coalition would have a narrow majority.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Look at that Linke-CDU vote (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?

[H. Ross Peron]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably. Obviously the stereotypical socialist turned right-wing populist voter is much exaggerated in terms of numbers especially since AfD seems quite right-wing economically, but that hardly means they are nonexistent.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

[H. Ross Peron]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Did you mean to type FDP?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Did you mean to type FDP?

I’m lost here 
Aren’t the FDP a liberal (European sense) party, and CDU not exactly like Le Pen?

[jaichind]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Yeah, this is a surprise.  It is not a surprise that there was anti-AfD tactical voting by Green and SPD voters but I would have expected Linke voters to vote AfD to tactically defeat CDU versus other way around.

[Astatine]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?
[...]

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Did you mean to type FDP?

I’m lost here 
Aren’t the FDP a liberal (European sense) party, and CDU not exactly like Le Pen?

FDP = European liberal
CDU = Centrist/Center-right moderate conservatives
AfD = closest to Le Pen ideologically

[H. Ross Peron]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Did you mean to type FDP?

I’m lost here 
Aren’t the FDP a liberal (European sense) party, and CDU not exactly like Le Pen?

So am I . I thought you meant to type FDP since your question was about Linke-AfD voters but your reply mentioned AfD and I noticed that the table showed more Linke-FDP questions than Linke-AfD which made me wonder if you were talking about FDP instead.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Did you mean to type FDP?

I’m lost here 
Aren’t the FDP a liberal (European sense) party, and CDU not exactly like Le Pen?

So am I . I thought you meant to type FDP since your question was about Linke-AfD voters but your reply mentioned AfD and I noticed that the table showed more Linke-FDP questions than Linke-AfD which made me wonder if you were talking about FDP instead.

Right. This has got a bit out of hand...
My question was wouldn’t gaucho-lepenistes vote AfD rather than CDU.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?
[...]

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Did you mean to type FDP?

I’m lost here 
Aren’t the FDP a liberal (European sense) party, and CDU not exactly like Le Pen?

FDP = European liberal
CDU = Centrist/Center-right moderate conservatives
AfD = closest to Le Pen ideologically

Yes and I suppose the CSU is the closest to Les Républicains.

[Astatine]

Look at that Linke-CDU (don’t know how reliable this is; just seen it elsewhere)
And who is voting Linke—>AfD?
[...]

German version of gaucho-lepénists presumably.

Wouldn’t they vote AfD?

Did you mean to type FDP?

I’m lost here 
Aren’t the FDP a liberal (European sense) party, and CDU not exactly like Le Pen?

So am I . I thought you meant to type FDP since your question was about Linke-AfD voters but your reply mentioned AfD and I noticed that the table showed more Linke-FDP questions than Linke-AfD which made me wonder if you were talking about FDP instead.

Right. This has got a bit out of hand...
My question was wouldn’t gaucho-lepenistes vote AfD rather than CDU.

To answer this question: Yes, they would.

There were probably many Linke voters who chose to vote CDU this time because polls indicated a close race between CDU and AfD - And as a majority of Left voters is satisfied with the incumbent Minister-President, it was a strong personal vote for Reiner Haseloff too.

We have seen the reverse in Thuringia in 2019, when many CDU voters voted for the Left to keep Bodo Ramelow Minister-President and prevent the AfD from becoming largest party.

[parochial boy]

In a fit of pedantry, I think the term "Right Liberal" is more appropriate than "European Liberal" for a party like the FDP. Because Europe also has a tradition of Social Liberal parties (cf the Danish ones, the Swiss GreenLiberals - and the Circle of Independents before them), that would also claim the label "liberal" even while being a long, long way ideologically speaking from parties like the two FDPs, the VVD or what LREM has transformed into.

The term "liberal" does fairly universally imply support for capitalism and the market economy - but it isn't entirely true that it universally means "unquestioning opposition to all intervention". In some cases it sort of does, but overall it's a mistake to make out that European Liberalism is somehow assimiable to US libertarianism.