Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[windjammer]

Does Strache risk jail?
Because what he did looks like treason right?

[windjammer]

If I were the OVP I would call new elections, get additional votes and then form a coalition again with FPO with Norbert Hofer. A weak ally would mean no opposition at all.

[windjammer]

Julia Herr (Socialist Youth leader) and the SPÖ are mobilizing in front of Strache's office in Vienna right now:



Herr protesting against ÖVP-FPÖ behind Kurz at a concentration camp recently:



https://www.instagram.com/_frau_herr_/

Are there a lot of people demonstrating across Austria right now?

I would be surprised if that would be the case.

[windjammer]

And btw,
is Kurz gay and participates to orgies like Strache claimed?

[windjammer]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Exactly what I expected, FPO between 15% and 20%

[windjammer]

First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ Österreich:

ÖVP: 38% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (+1)
FPÖ: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRÜNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week

Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FPÖ voters seem to be very loyal...

I think FPO has a ceiling at 15%

[windjammer]

I guess SPO and Greens will abstain

[windjammer]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

[windjammer]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.

And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

[windjammer]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.

And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.

You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative

[windjammer]

H.C. Strache already planning his comeback:

* There has been a deal between the FPÖ and the Straches, which both sides accepted

* H.C. Strache will not take his EU seat and stay mostly "quiet" for the next year

* Instead, he got a consulting job for the FPÖ, worth 10.000€ per month

* His wife Philippa will run for parliament this fall, worth 9.000€ per month

* This will compensate for the 20.000€ per month H.C. earned as Vice-Chancellor

* If the state prosecution does not charge Strache with anything, Strache will return as FPÖ-lead candidate for the important 2020 Vienna state election (but only assuming the state prosecution announces so several months before the state election). Otherwise, Dominik Nepp will become lead candidate.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-plant-sein-comeback-in-oesterreich-a-1272827.html

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet)

[windjammer]

Could a OVP-NEOS minority govt happen?

[windjammer]

The FPÖ has just voted to deny Philippa Strache a seat in parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kein-nationalrats-mandat-fuer-philippa-strache/400640495

In recent days, more and more important people in the FPÖ said they wanted a complete reset for the party and that’s only possible without the Straches.

The fact that the Straches were still a thing after this massive scandal is quite telling,...