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realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,809
Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
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« on: March 10, 2016, 03:48:32 PM » |
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Run it up in the west/central, make major inroads in the Scranton area, and hold pat in the Philly suburbs. Give Trump about a 5-10 point swing from 2012 outside the 9 closest counties to Philly while holding Philly constant, and he can barely edge out Clinton. If turnout increases out west and turnout declines in Philly proper, it becomes easier. However, if Trump is going to even come close to winning PA, the national mood would be such that you might see a swing toward Trump even in the Philly region simply by moving the national needle toward a 50-50 race.
It is possible for a competitive Trump to take PA, but it's a tight needle to thread.
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