If every state's senate delegation ran against each other (user search)
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  If every state's senate delegation ran against each other (search mode)
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Author Topic: If every state's senate delegation ran against each other  (Read 742 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: March 02, 2023, 07:27:12 PM »

If every incumbent senator ran against their colleague in a general election who would win?
(Some of them I have no clue like RI since they are both very similar, so I took a guess)
IMO

Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona-Kelly
Arkansas-Cotton
California-Padilla
Colorado-Bennet
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio
Georgia-Warnock
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Durbin
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-Paul
Louisiana-Cassidy
Maine-King
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey
Michigan-Peters
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Merkley
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Whitehouse
South Carolina-Scott
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn
Utah-Romney
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Warner
Washington-Cantwell
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Baldwin
Wyoming-Barrasso


IMO:
In AL I think Tuberville wins. He's way more popular with the MAGA faithful.
Kennedy would beat Cassidy. That impeachment vote hasn't done him any favers.
Fischer would have beaten Sasse for sure, but I think Ricketts would in the new matchup.
Tillis would have eked it out with Burr, but he isn't that popular with Republicans and I think Budd would win.
Wyden still beats Merkley.
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Tekken_Guy
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Posts: 13,144
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2023, 08:36:47 PM »

Reminder for states with two senator of the same party that this is a general not a primary so assuming the more moderate, if there is enough distance between the two, one can keep some of their party I expect them to win in most cases.


Alabama-Britt
Alaska-Murkowski
Arizona- Sienima - Bold I know given her terrible approval rating but I think she keeps enough Democrats/ indy to win with almost universal GOP support in a close state
Arkansas-Cotton
California-Padilla
Colorado-Hickenlooper- popular former gov 
Connecticut-Murphy
Delaware-Carper
Florida-Rubio- quite possibly the easiest same party vote if not for Texas
Georgia-Warnock- more loved by Democrats than Ossoff and Ossoff is not moderate enough to get GOP support
Hawaii-Schatz
Idaho-Crapo
Illinois-Duckworth - another upset Durbin's senate leadership hurts him with Republicans and he has annoyed the base some
Indiana-Young
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Moran
Kentucky-Paul- Honestly do Democrats just leave this race blank?
Louisiana-Cassidy universal Dem support over Trump impeachment plus just enough GOP support
Maine-Collins
Maryland-Cardin
Massachusetts-Markey- Warren gets crushed by both Republicans, who despise her much more than Markey and the AOC wing backs Markey over her. She honestly might win Cambridge and lose every other city and town in the state.
Michigan-Peters (only cause of retirement)
Minnesota-Klobuchar
Mississippi-Wicker
Missouri-Schmitt- Hawley is hated by Dems
Montana-Daines
Nebraska-Fischer
Nevada-CCM
New Hampshire-Shaheen
New Jersey-Booker
New Mexico-Heinrich
New York-Schumer
North Carolina-Tillis
North Dakota-Hoeven
Ohio-Vance
Oklahoma-Lankford
Oregon-Merkley
Pennsylvania-Casey
Rhode Island-Reed
South Carolina-Scott- despite being more moderate (on most things) Graham is hated by Democrats
South Dakota-Thune
Tennessee-Hagerty
Texas-Cornyn- the easiest state on this list, wins majority of Republicans and almost universal democratic support
Utah-Romney
Vermont-Sanders
Virginia-Warner
Washington-Cantwell
West Virginia-Capito
Wisconsin-Johnson
Wyoming-Barrasso


-Kelly still beats Sinema IMO, he has enough goodwill with Republicans that I think he does better with them than Sinema with GOPers.
-King would absolutely beat Collins. Whereas Collins usually has a lot of crossover appeal in her elections, King would get near-universal Democratic support in this match-up.
-Baldwin would easily beat Johnson. She has a lot of crossover appeal whereas Johnson has very little.
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Tekken_Guy
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Posts: 13,144
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2023, 01:17:03 AM »

AL: Tuberville would absolutely win a GOP primary, but Britt would be favored in a general open to all.
AK: Murkowski. She gets universal support for Democrats that Sullivan won’t be able to get from R’s.
AR: Cotton definitely wins the primary, but Boozman’s more competitive in a general.
AZ: Kelly. He gets universal Democratic support while the Republicans Sinema needs
CA: Easily Padilla.
CO: Probably Bennet. Hickenlooper has issues to his left.
CT: Murphy I guess. Those Da Nang Dick attacks from Trump haven’t done Blumenthal any favors with R voters.
DE: Probably Carper, because he’s more known than Coons.
FL: Rubio, and it’s not close. Dem voters hold their nose for Rubio because Scott is toxic.
GA: Warnock, because black voters
HI: Schatz. Hirono is quite polarizing.
IL: Durbin, since he’s more of an institution than Duckworth.
IN: Young
IA: Grassley
KS: Moran, since he’s been around longer than Marshall
KY: A hard one, because Dems hate both members. But anti-establishment anger towards McConnell gives the win to Paul
LA: Kennedy. Cassidy gets near universal support from Democrats though.
ME: King. Collins’ crossover support almost completely vanishes in this matchup.
MD: Cardin
MA: Markey
MI: Peters
MN: Klobuchar
MS: Wicker, since Hyde-Smith is a weak candidate.
MO: Schmitt. Republicans split down the middle but Dems overwhelmingly vote against Hawley.
MT: Daines, though Tester keeps it closer than a generic D.
NE: Ricketts narrowly. Fischer has been relatively backbench in the Senate, though she would have beaten Sasse.
NV: CCM
NH: Shaheen
NJ: Booker, and it’s not close
NM: Heinrich
NY: Schumer. Gillibrand’s presidential run hurts her ability to consolidate the anti-Schumer vote.
NC: Budd. Tillis has some issues on his right flank and I don’t think Democrats bail him out.
ND: Hoeven
OH: Vance, though Brown would have won this match-up had it taken place in 2018 or earlier (he probably never would have won any match-up with Portman, however).
OK: Lankford
OR: Wyden
PA: Casey, he has crossover appeal whereas Fetterman is despised by the Trump base.
RI: Whitehouse
SC: Scott in a landslide, with both Republicans and Democrats supporting him
SD: Thule
TN: Hagerty. Dems don’t like him but they absolutely despise Blackburn, and will gladly vote her out.
TX: Cornyn
UT: Romney. Universal Dem+moderate support and enough conservative support to edge out Lee.
VT: Sanders. R voters overwhelmingly go for Welch but there’s not enough of them to stop Bernie.
VA: Kaine
WA: Murray
WV: Capito, though Manchin would probably win any pre-2014 race here.
WI: Baldwin
WY: Barrasso
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