COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

Coronavirus is now old news for a while, the CNN sidebar showing COVID case and death # isn't there anymore

It hasn't gone away entirely yet, but I thought that the CNN counter (MSNBC had one too) was a glaring and detestable example of sensationalism. While (as I've said before), this pandemic has had a devastating effect on the lives of many, I don't think the media reported it in the best way that it could have. Given that its focus is on profit and ratings, what would one expect?

[Calthrina950]

A story of two contrasts today, for me. I've reported before on the numbers of customers at my job who are wearing masks. It is still the same breakdown as last week; around 60% are wearing masks and 40% are not. I had one masked customer who asked me how many customers were wearing masks, and I gave her the same breakdown as I did now. She then said that she had no problem with "shaming" people for not wearing them, and that we "students" (She assumed I was a student, given that I look much younger than I am) need to be protected from the virus. Later on, I had another customer-who was maskless-telling me that they hoped we wouldn't be required to wear them the next time he saw me.

The contrasting views on a practice such as this are definitely a sight to behold.

[Calthrina950]

Just from the numbers we have as of now, today is gearing up to be a terrible day in terms of new cases. This probably is due to a combination of increased testing, and a possible mini spike from reopenings. If the second is true, cases will continue to look worse than they were 7 days ago throughout next week.

Just a comment on the second part, definitely not directed at you specifically.  But there seems to be a sense of surprise in some quarters that cases are ticking back up following reopening in some areas.  How could anyone not have expected that to happen?  The level of interpersonal contact is increasing while the population is just as susceptible as ever, except perhaps in a few places like NYC that may have achieved a limited degree of herd immunity.  Did some people expect the virus to give us credit for good behavior the past several weeks and become less infectious?

Do you think we should lock the economy down again? I don't think that such a course of action is feasible at this point. 25% or even 30% unemployment would be absolutely devastating, and the unrest which we've seen in the past few days would become far more intense, to the point that I would fear for civil stability in this country. I think that we need to maintain social distancing restrictions for businesses, continue to ramp up our testing efforts, and delay (or cancel) future large events.

[Calthrina950]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

"Moved on" implies that the virus is behind us, which is not the case.  I think it would be more accurate to say that (a) the situation has stabilized, and (b) people are used to it by now. 

Yea I agree 100%, the second wave this fall will be humbling, it’s just that the protests have captured the national attention now

There's no guarantee that there will be a second wave, but it is certainly noteworthy that coronavirus has finally been pushed from the top of the news for the first time in over two months. However, it is still with us, and signs of it are still everywhere. Notice how most of the protesters have been wearing masks.

[Calthrina950]

I went to the supermarket just now and while the last few weeks the majority of people were wearing mask, today all the employees still were but about half of the people shopping were not.

Yesterday, at my job, around 40% or so of customers were not wearing masks. This is the same general pattern which has persisted for some weeks, and of which I've made some note before. As we move farther into the summer, I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers of people wearing masks continues to decline in those states/cities, and at those businesses, where it has not been made mandatory.

[Calthrina950]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

6/1 (Today):

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

But yes, mass media and the online hivemind have moved on.

More disturbingly, governors have, almost overnight, overturned their advice on mass gatherings. Many of them are encouraging people to attend mass demonstrations taking place in direct violation of guidelines that continue to force businesses to remain closed. Remember what happened in New Orleans after Mardi Gras?

This feeds into the arguments which have been made by many lockdown skeptics (arguments which I believe hold some value), that many of our Governors and Mayors have overstepped the bounds of their authority with the restrictions which they have imposed. And that the reasoning behind some of these restrictions could very well be political, with public health being a secondary concern. It disturbs me as well how quickly these riots have pushed coronavirus from being the center of attention. Of course, they are unacceptable, and arose from a horrific incident, but it's still notable, nonetheless.

[Calthrina950]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

"Moved on" implies that the virus is behind us, which is not the case.  I think it would be more accurate to say that (a) the situation has stabilized, and (b) people are used to it by now. 

Yea I agree 100%, the second wave this fall will be humbling, it’s just that the protests have captured the national attention now

There's no guarantee that there will be a second wave, but it is certainly noteworthy that coronavirus has finally been pushed from the top of the news for the first time in over two months. However, it is still with us, and signs of it are still everywhere. Notice how most of the protesters have been wearing masks.

The virus is still going on but the initial hype is wearing off. When a second wave strikes in winter, we probably won't need protective measures at all, due to increased healthcare capacity.

I surely hope so, because I don't think our economy and society could tolerate a second round of lockdown orders. As I've said before, anger and frustration owing to the lockdowns-with the suspension of large-scale events, the closure of businesses, and the corresponding unemployment-undoubtedly contributed to the riots which we have seen over the past week. The economic damage has been considerable, and a second lockdown period would certainly push us into another Great Depression (which may already be happening as it is). Moreover, I've started to think that some aspects of the initial governmental response was flawed-particularly with regards to the failures in securing nursing homes.

As for masks, I hold to my prediction that they will be the norm for the remainder of the year, but we'll see if it breaks earlier to that, due to the high temperatures coming our way. It is of note to me though that the majority of these protesters have been wearing masks, in contrast to the anti-lockdown protesters of a month or two ago, most of whom were not.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1267709439467020288

 these bullsh**t health experts.
Del Tachi was 100% in calling our their absolute fakeness.

I should go to a protest with thousands of people but churches have a strict limit of 25.

The hypocrisy is truly astounding. It is hard for me to see how these experts can justify maintaining social distancing and capacity restrictions when shilling for large-scale protests such as these. If we do not see a surge in new cases due to these protests, then how will these restrictions be maintained, going forward?

[Calthrina950]

The hypocrisy is truly astounding. It is hard for me to see how these experts can justify maintaining social distancing and capacity restrictions when shilling for large-scale protests such as these. If we do not see a surge in new cases due to these protests, then how will these restrictions be maintained, going forward?

Wait, when did a medical expert that has promoted social distancing say that these protests were a good idea?

I was responding to the NPR report that was linked to above.

[Calthrina950]

Yesterday, the U.S. had the lowest positivity rate since March 4. It was the lowest since at least March 5 (probably earlier) using the 7-day rolling average.

As you probably know, the authorities and experts have been expressing their concerns that there will be a resurgence in coronavirus cases due to the protests and riots we have been seeing. I'm not sure how much of an impact this will have on the maintenance of social distancing regulations.

[Calthrina950]

In the meantime, mask orders continue to spread, although their speed has declined somewhat in recent weeks. In Colorado, Governor Polis issued an order yesterday allowing businesses to deny service to customers who do not wear masks: https://gazette.com/news/no-mask-no-service-polis-order-gives-business-owners-right-of-refusal/article_9c5bd300-a697-11ea-adf6-53f2e7c59fb5.html. Now, this isn't a full-blown mask mandate, in contrast to what other Governors-primarily in the Northeast and Midwest-have imposed. But it's a step in that direction. How sustainable are these orders going to be when it gets very hot?

[Calthrina950]

In the meantime, mask orders continue to spread, although their speed has declined somewhat in recent weeks. In Colorado, Governor Polis issued an order yesterday allowing businesses to deny service to customers who do not wear masks: https://gazette.com/news/no-mask-no-service-polis-order-gives-business-owners-right-of-refusal/article_9c5bd300-a697-11ea-adf6-53f2e7c59fb5.html. Now, this isn't a full-blown mask mandate, in contrast to what other Governors-primarily in the Northeast and Midwest-have imposed. But it's a step in that direction. How sustainable are these orders going to be when it gets very hot?

Why does a business need an executive order to be able to do this?  I thought a private business was allowed to deny business to anyone they want, unless they are discriminating against a protected class, or they are in a special regulatory category like common carriers.  

I know of several business here in VA that were requiring masks before we ever went into lockdown.
If you can say “no shirt, no shoes, no service”, why not “no mask, no service”?

Frankly, I don't understand why Polis decided to issue this order either, especially at this juncture. We are now nearly three months into the coronavirus crisis, and many businesses have been making masks mandatory for their customers for a long period already. Perhaps Polis did it as a gesture of support for those businesses, given the number of individuals who have persisted in their refusal to wear masks in public (such as the maskless customers at my job, which I've chronicled in detail throughout this). Cuomo issued a similar order in New York, and this was after he had made masks mandatory there.

[Calthrina950]

This is a serious question: Why do we still have to wear masks still in stores?

The amount of people protesting and rioting nation and world wide make those masks now completely irrelevant. You’re not saving anyone at this point.

 Math. Every action taken to prevent or spread infection helps. It's not an all or nothing proposition. Pandemics are a math problem. If you never get infected, you don't infect the next two, who don't infect the next two and so on. Despite the many false proclamations that the virus is already prevalent in most of the population as you've seen repeated and falsely stated in this thread, we now know this is nonsense because large numbers are still being infected and dying. If we were at herd immunity this would not be the case.

Now, even the WHO has changed its guidance to recommend that people wear masks in public: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/health/coronavirus-masks-who.html. This move is very belated, and doesn't make sense at such a juncture like this. Nevertheless, as I've said before, many people aren't going to heed it unless they are required to. It seems like with each passing week, the number of maskless individuals in public increases. At my job today, I had a maskless customer who told us that employees should not be wearing masks anymore, as a return to normalcy.

[Calthrina950]

At my job today, I had a maskless customer who told us that employees should not be wearing masks anymore, as a return to normalcy.

I think a lot of people out there consider masking to be a reminder of how bad things were, and they want to put it behind them.

This is certainly true, but there are also many who have believed this entire time that the entire pandemic was a hoax, and that masks have been used as an instrument of control by the "experts", Democrats, the media, and the Deep State. Ironically though, I saw a customer at the grocery store near my job who was wearing a mask and a Trump hat. So clearly, some Trump supporters have been heeding the advice of medical experts and are taking things seriously. This may help to explain why Trump's approvals have taken a hit recently.

[Calthrina950]

At my job today, I had a maskless customer who told us that employees should not be wearing masks anymore, as a return to normalcy.

I think a lot of people out there consider masking to be a reminder of how bad things were, and they want to put it behind them.

This is certainly true, but there are also many who have believed this entire time that the entire pandemic was a hoax, and that masks have been used as an instrument of control by the "experts", Democrats, the media, and the Deep State.

I think its pretty obvious that those who simply believe the reaction was overblown (and are thus itching to get "back to normal") vastly outnumber those who think Xi Jinping cooked this up in a lab with Bill Gates, or whatever.  Unfortunately many have attached the "conspiracy" label to both.   

I certainly agree with you here. One of my co-workers, who is a former computer engineer, was talking to me at length today about it. He said that the whole approach to coronavirus by our officials and by experts was flawed, based on misinformation (or lack of adequate information). He also made an interesting distinction between "scientists" and "engineers", saying that the two classes have approached coronavirus in different ways.

"Scientists", who may not have practical experience in the "real" world outside of working in a laboratory, are inclined to think that if a measure is not 100% effective against fighting the virus, then it is not worth pursuing, whereas "engineers" believe that if a measure is even 80% or 90% effective, then its benefits outweigh the costs. He used this when discussing the conflicting guidelines officials gave over masks. From his view, a more practical approach to this virus would have spared us many of the problems that we have been confronted with.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure if this has already been posted here or in another thread, but more than 1000 health professionals signed a letter supporting the BLM protests, but saying that *other* protests are still not good from a coronavirus perspective:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

"However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from demonstrators' ability to gather and demand change. This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders."

Of course, I'm sure their stance will change when it is a protest touching upon one of their "pet" issues. Using their logic, one could argue that protests for abortion rights and against global warming are for combating threats to the "national public health."

[Calthrina950]

Masking is definitely on a downward trajectory at my job. Today, I saw the highest proportion of unmasked customers which I've seen in almost three months. Probably around 45%, maybe even close to 50%, of all customers were not wearing masks, compared to 50-55% who were. The "maskless" minority is becoming even more confident as temperatures continue to increase.

[Calthrina950]

At my grocery stores, there are people standing at the entrance as you go in making sure you have a mask. I assume Walmart is the same everywhere.

Walmart here is not requiring customers to wear a mask.  The employees do.  They do have people stationed out front counting customers to ensure that the reduced capacity limit isn't exceeded.

Walmart doesn't require masks here either. I assume that they are only enforcing it in jurisdictions where it has been made mandatory. Moreover, my store finally lifted its capacity restrictions last week, and is no longer regulating the numbers of people who can come into the store, where they can come in, and where they can exit. The distance markers and directional arrows remain, but no one is paying them any attention (and never have), and the windows remain as well, though they are viewed as an inconvenience. Employees are still required to wear masks, but I'm not sure how much longer that will be sustainable for.

[Calthrina950]

One thing that I haven't commented on, but which has bothered me for a long time. For the past two months, I have had to hear an ambulance zoom by my house multiple times a day (and at my job as well). It's a daily reminder to me of what is going on. In fact, I hear one right now as I type this post. The constant blare of the ambulance, day after day, almost makes me lose my sanity.

[Calthrina950]

One thing that I haven't commented on, but which has bothered me for a long time. For the past two months, I have had to hear an ambulance zoom by my house multiple times a day (and at my job as well). It's a daily reminder to me of what is going on. In fact, I hear one right now as I type this post. The constant blare of the ambulance, day after day, almost makes me lose my sanity.

I thought Covid hospitalizations in Colorado were decreasing (not that I don’t believe you) is CO Springs looking a lot different than the Denver metro area?

As I mentioned in the post, I've been hearing ambulances near-constantly every day for over two months now, so it's not something new that emerged within the past few weeks. It may just be a coincidence, since the road next to my house, on which the ambulances pass, does lead to a hospital.

[Calthrina950]

Every GOP senator who attended a news conference today wore a mask.
Via CNN Live Updates.

A group of GOP senators all wore face masks to a news conference to where they unveiled their police reform plan.

When each senator approached the lectern to speak, he or she removed his or her mask. The senators put their masks back on when they returned to the sides of the podium.

This is in contrast to how the White House how handled events and news conferences in the pandemic: In the Rose Garden on Tuesday afternoon, President Trump announced an executive order on policing without a mask on.

And by the look of a video the White House sent out on Twitter shortly afterward, almost no one in attendance wore a mask either.

I'm shocked, but very happy to see they are wearing masks.
True leaders lead by example.
It's also a big "f*** you" to trump (and Pence).

Even Republican Senators (and many Republican Representatives) have been upstaging Trump in this regard. But at this point, it is clear that he isn't going to change his behavior, and I'm not sure how much more profit can be derived for attacking him on that basis.

[Calthrina950]

Cases nationwide are steady while deaths continue to decrease every week.  No one thought we were going to eradicate the virus.  The idea behind the lockdown was to mimimize the strain on the health care system until we had better testing and treatment.  We now have better testing and treatment. 

We need to manage hotspots where the health care system is close to capacity.  But beyond that, I don’t see how it’s a mistake to continue to open up.  The steady flow of new infections we are seeing, coupled with fewer and fewer deaths, seem like the very definition of “flattening the curve”.  And it’s the way we eventually get to herd immunity with the lowest cost to life and ecconomic hardship (besides deliberately infecting younger people, which seems impossible now).

It was a mistake to not get the virus under control to a similar degree as essentially every other developed country (South Korea, Australia, the entirety of Western Europe, etc) and without having adequate public health measures such as testing/contact tracing in place before opening up, because it means that cases are now rising again. Granted, Americans are perhaps so incredibly stupid that this may not ever have been possible in the Failed States of America, at least not with leaders such as Trump attempting to sabotage the process by discouraging sensible low-cost precautions like mask wearing.

The economic response could have been much better managed. There is no reason whatsoever why, for example, FSA unemployment should be so high (it is not in western Europe or elsewhere because they had more sensible employment/social safety net policies to deal with the economic effects of lockdown). There is absolutely 0 reason why anyone in the USA should not have enough to eat, or be at risk of losing their housing etc. The fact that some are is purely and entirely a policy failure, and is in no way necessitated by the pandemic itself. Both the health damage and the economic damage in the Failed States is unique among developed countries in its extent and both the health and the fact that both are as bad as they are is an entirely self-inflicted wound.

As it is, with cases rising we are going to start getting more economic damage, because remember that the economic damage started well before lockdowns were imposed - the economic damage resulted primarily from voluntary changes in behavior across the world. Leading economic indicators such as restaurant reservations are already starting to trend back down in states where virus cases are now surging. It is true there is a short term trade-off between lockdowns and economic activity, but if you go in the direction of opening up the economy too early, that trade-off disappears (and at some point reverses) as the surging virus at a certain point causes many people to once again change their behavior and go into self-lockdown mode or self semi-lockdown mode.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Trump's response was "effective" or "good". Most people on here have been harshly critical of his response, and I myself have expressed my concerns regarding it. However, do you believe that this country should go back under lockdown? What benefit will we derive now by shutting down all activity again, closing businesses, and restricting movement? Given the outburst of anger and emotion which we saw during the recent riots/protests (which I attribute partly to the response to the shutdowns), I would shutter to think about what we would face if we were to resume with such rigorous policies.

I also will say that it is impossible to expect for this virus to be completely eliminated. Just recently, New Zealand has had three new cases of coronavirus, in a country that has almost completely closed itself off from the outside world. I certainly think that we need to continue with the precautions that we have taken (i.e. limits on large gatherings, mask wearing, sanitary practices), but businesses and individuals cannot and should not be subjected to the same kinds of lockdowns that were in place before. In California, in Colorado, in Texas, and in other states, the authorities recognize that such a move would have costs far outweighing the benefits.

[Calthrina950]

Today, Governor Newsom made mask-wearing mandatory throughout California: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/18/880583357/california-gov-newsom-makes-face-masks-mandatory-amid-rising-coronavirus-cases. This is in response to the resurgence in coronavirus cases which the state has seen in recent days. In Arizona, the mayors of Phoenix and Mesa have issued orders making masks mandatory; Governor Ducey had caved, and allowed cities to issue mask guidelines of their own. Mayors in Texas are requesting permission from Governor Abbott to do the same. In Florida, mayors in Tampa and Orlando have made mask-wearing mandatory. And North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is considering mandating them as well.

As before, the partisan divide continues to persist, with Democratic Governors and Mayors having no problems issuing mask orders. From their perspective, mandatory masks are a public health measure, and trump any considerations of constitutionality or personal liberties. Republican Governors have-with the exceptions of Baker and Hogan-continued to refrain from doing the same. Like Gov. DeWine in Ohio, they feel that such a move would be too intrusive upon the rights of citizens.

In my home state of Colorado, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have been on a downward trajectory. A few weeks ago (as I noted), Polis issued his order reiterating the right of businesses to refuse service to maskless customers, but stopped short of a full mask mandate. If cases were to resurge here, I wouldn't be surprised if he finally made them mandatory. Likewise, my city of Colorado Springs may do so, since our City Council discussed the possibility last month.

Mask orders will continue to persist through the summer and into the fall. 

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1274127246404595712

It would be a significant change if Republican Governors (besides Baker and Hogan, who mandated them in heavily Democratic states), were to begin mandating mask usage in public. Thus far, almost every Democratic Governor in the country, except for those of Oregon, Wisconsin, Nevada, Minnesota, and Colorado, has mandated mask-wearing in public. Its obvious to me at this point that the arguments of those opposed to mandatory masks have lost, and if cases do continue to spike, the practice will become more widespread.

[Calthrina950]

More people need to be talking about how far the deaths have dropped.  At this point, deaths are down nearly 90% from a couple months ago, despite case counts that are close to where they were then.  There could be a few theories, all with different implications:

1. It's because current outbreaks are concentrated in younger people, as older people are continuing to voluntarily socially distance even when it's no longer required.

2. New cases are actually down significantly, but we're testing more.

3. Deaths are a lagging indicator that will rise substantially soon.

4. The virus has mutated to become much less deadly.

#3 is getting less and less convincing by the day, as cases haven't risen that much nationally from a couple weeks ago, so, even if deaths rise somewhat, it doesn't tell much of the story.  #2 seems like it might have a little merit, but the national positive rate has only fallen from about 10% to 5-6%, so it's not the story for the whole drop in deaths.  I think the biggest factors are some combination of #1 and #4, but it's hard to give an exact degree.  If #4 is significant, that would obviously have massive implications going forward.

We've had detailed arguments on this thread in which it has been suggested that deaths are a lagging indicator, and that they will increase soon. However, I'm inclined to believe that the virus may be mutating into a less deadly form. I think it is definitely true that younger people are much more active now than before, and could account for a larger share of the new cases.