2017 French Presidential Election

[Velasco]

How much you agree with the candidates:

Benoit Hamon 77%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 75%

Philippe Poutou 72%

Nathalie Arthaud 71%

Emmanuel Macron 64%

Jacques Cheminade 61%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 60%

François Fillon 52%

Marine Le Pen 52%

(Excessive "somewhat agree" and "somewhat disagree" replies; maybe I'm a bit like BFM)

Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars)

They resemble each other like an egg to a chestnut

[Velasco]

And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll.

Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate.

Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron.

Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so)

Wasn't that mostly because it turned a lot of people against the Iraq War, rather than just being a terrorist attack effect?

Correct me if I am wrong, track, but I think the reason why PP got swung by the terrorist attack was mainly because of the way they handled it too i.e blaming ETA for political gain.

Exactly, the government lied and insisted in blaming ETA against all evidence. Prior the terrorist attacks polls said that around 90% was against the Iraq War, so there wasn't a lot of people left to turn against it.

Seems that French media is corrupt us well. They promote and felate Macron, because they don't want Melenchon to emerge as the left wing opposition.

No. The media have been quite nice to Mélenchon this last month. It seems that they read his platform only a week ago (to discover the Venezuela-Cuba alliance, etc.)

I guess that media was kind with Mélenchon as long as he wasn't perceived as a threat.

[Velasco]

Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen.

Van der Bellen the Frenchie will lose 3-4% to French Hofer. Isn't it?

[Velasco]

Turnout at noon nationwide: 28,54% (+0.25)

And in my polling station: 35.8%. In my city in 2012 turnout was 3pts lower than the national rate

In which area do you live?

In a FN / Left area.

Is turnout going up in similar areas across France?