What does a narrow Trump victory look like?

[RFayette]

My current read on this election is that if Trump is the nominee, his only real chance of winning (and this applies to some extent to other GOP nominees, as well) is either some catastrophic foreign event (i.e. Iran bombing Israel, discovered with nukes) or a recession.  Nonetheless, it's not completely impossible for these things to happen, so a Trump victory is possible.

My question is:  what would the electoral map look like for such a circumstance?

Trump's appeal among white college graduates (as well as Hispanics) seems to be well below average for a Republican, while he appears to do quite strong among working-class whites and might overperform a generic Republican with blacks. 


My thought is a narrow Trump win would look like the 2012 map plus the following states:
-Iowa
-Ohio
-Pennsylvania

But this would only get Trump to 250 electoral votes.  He would have to win at least 2 of {Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida}.  I'm assuming that Trump is hopeless in NM/CO/NV because of Hispanics and college-educated whites (for Colorado). 

Within the five states I mentioned, which two would be most likely to flip?  Also (sorry, TNVolunteer), would NH have any chance of flipping under Trump?