The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Yep, Georgia will go on Super Tuesday (March 6).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/29/georgia-announces-primary-date/

I've now updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Wisconsin

Those are the only seven left to decide.  The ball is really in Florida's court now.  Can the RNC talk them into going later than Jan. 31?  If Missouri promises to switch from a February primary to a March caucus, will that be good enough to convince Florida to go in late February, or will they refuse to go later than CO, MN, and ME caucuses?

[Mr. Morden]

Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.

Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

[Mr. Morden]

Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.

Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.

Scrapping it requires the legislature to actually pass a bill that would scrap it, and have the governor sign it.  But all legislative business is basically deadlocked at the moment, as Nixon is at an impasse with the legislature over other issues.  Most of the legislature is at home right now, and they aren't meeting in the capitol on a day-to-day basis.  If there's a breakthrough in negotiations with Nixon, they'll come back to the capitol and start voting on these things again.  But otherwise they're just going to run out the clock on the special session.

So the primary is just kind of a casualty of the legislative impasse.  It's not an important enough issue to motivate the legislature to come back to the capital from their home districts just to kill the primary.

EDIT: I wonder if any of the candidates will actually put their names on the ballot in the meaningless primary.  Filing deadline is in November, and there's a filing fee, but I'm not sure how much it costs.  Maybe the legislature will come back in January and kill the primary then, and refund everyone's money.

If any of you meet the constitutional requirements to serve as POTUS by next year, and you want to run a presidential campaign restricted to the non-binding primary in Missouri, you should file to put your name on the ballot.  If Romney, Perry, Bachmann et al don't put their names on the ballot, you might win! 

[Mr. Morden]

Cann they kill the primary later ?

It's not like holding such a primary election is cheap and these lawmakers are probably not interested in wasting millions of taxpayer money ahead of the important 2012 election.

I was editing my post when you posted this message.  I would assume they can come back in January and kill the primary then.  Of course, the filing deadline is in November, so they'd have to refund everyone's money.

Also, it just occurred to me that states often combine presidential primaries with either state primaries or other local elections.  I have no idea if they're doing that in Missouri or not.  It's possible that the primary is being combined with other elections that'll have to happen anyway.

[Mr. Morden]

Can any of you see the Florida primary date selection committee meeting live stream here?

http://thefloridachannel.org/

I'm not on a computer where I'm able to watch live video at the moment.

[Mr. Morden]

Florida primary officially set to Jan. 31, which is simply a reversion back to when it was originally scheduled, before they set up the special primary calendar panel:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/florida-presidential-primary-will-be-jan-31-2012/1194512

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Wisconsin

So we basically know the primary calendar now.  Just a few details remain.  Will Wisconsin move to April 3?  Probably, but not official yet.  IA, NH, NV, and SC will presumably all vote in January now (with Iowa some time in early January), but what will the exact dates be?  Will NV and SC go on the same day?  Will NV manage to go just a few days after NH, as they'd hoped to?

The interesting thing about the new calendar is that if Wisconsin does indeed move to April, then there's this big 3 week gap in February with no primaries or caucuses.  My guess is that the gap will probably mean that the early states will be perhaps a bit less important than in recent election cycles.  Because a 3 week gap is long enough that there's time for the campaign to more or less reset.  Momentum from the early states will have time to dissipate.

But maybe it'll be the reverse.  Who knows?  I'm just guessing here.

[Mr. Morden]

Gov. Walker just signed the primary bill:

MADISON (AP) - Gov. Scott Walker has signed the bill that moves Wisconsin's presidential primary from late February to the first Tuesday in April.

Wisconsin's primary next year would be April 3, the same day as the spring election.

I've updated the calendar in the OP to include this.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina

Sounds like Nevada may decide on whether to go before or after Florida by the Saturday deadline.  Nevada GOP is holding an emergency meeting to discuss the issue.

IA, NH, and SC are expected to miss the deadline, and will probably not announce their dates until next week, at the earliest.

[Mr. Morden]

Nevada caucus will probably be Feb. 4 (after Florida, but before Colorado and Minnesota):

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64879.html

By staying in February, Nevada will avoid any delegate penalties.  The final decision on the caucus date will be voted on Saturday night.

Assuming they do that, then I would guess that Iowa will end up in the second week of January, NH in the third week of January, and South Carolina in the fourth week of January, followed by Florida on Jan. 31.

Most likely date for Iowa would then be Jan. 10.

[Mr. Morden]

As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.

[Mr. Morden]

South Carolina will reveal their primary date at 11am Monday:

http://www.thestate.com/2011/10/02/1994582/sc-gop-to-reveal-primary-date.html

That's the easy part.  The remaining part of the calendar is how things shake out between NH and NV.  That part could very well take a few weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN says they have two sources telling them that South Carolina is going to opt for Jan. 21, 10 days before Florida:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/03/south-carolina-to-hold-primary-on-january-21/

I'll hold off on changing the calendar in the OP until there's an official announcement from SC (which should come within the hour).

If true, then this pretty much guarantees that Iowa will be in the first week of January (probably Jan. 3, 4, or 5).  NH would likely be Jan. 10.  I don't know about NV.  Possibly the same day as SC again now.  I assume that NV will ultimately blink in their standoff with NH.

EDIT: It's official.  South Carolina primary to Jan. 21:

http://www.abcnews4.com/story/15599231/south-carolina-gop-chair-expected-to-announce-new-primary-date-following-floridas-change

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada

[Mr. Morden]

Nevada GOP chairwoman Amy Tarkanian says that the state party intends to schedule the caucus *before* SC on Jan. 21:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/caucuses-sometime-before-jan-21-gop-leader-says-131025468.html

If Nevada goes on Sat, Jan. 14, then NH will likely not be content to go on Tuesday the 10th, because their state law says that they need the 7 day window.  They would likely move to the first week of January, which could push Iowa into December.  Also, both Saturday Jan. 7 and Saturday Jan. 14 will have NFL playoff games during the late afternoon and evening.  Not the best time to be competing for national attention.

If Nevada is willing to go on a day other than a Saturday (say, Tuesday, Jan. 17), then this could be resolved easily.  But the article says "Nevada GOP leaders believe holding the caucuses on a weekend will boost turnout and excitement for the meetings as Republicans pick their presidential favorites."

Again, at least one out of the three of Iowa, NH, and Nevada is going to have to compromise in some way on the timing of their primary or caucus.  If they all insist on going before SC and on having "breathing room" between them and the other states, then Iowa will be pushed into December.

[Mr. Morden]

Nevada caucus to Jan. 14:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire

Iowa and NH now have to make some hard decisions.  NH SoS Bill Gardner has consistently said that there's no chance of NH going less than 7 days before NV.  So the latest NH goes is Jan. 7.  NH also historically goes on a Tuesday, so maybe he would opt for Jan. 3.  But then that pushes Iowa into December.  Jan. 7 is less than ideal for NH, because it conflicts with NFL playoffs.  Though my guess is that Gardner really doesn't want Iowa pushed into December, because it would cause the parties to take a hard look at the role of IA and NH for the next time around.  So it's a tough call.

If NH does go on the 3rd, then I suppose there's a remote chance that IA could actually go *later* than NH, in order to avoid being pushed into December.  But that's unlikely.  More likely, NH on Jan. 3 means Iowa in December.  And probably not the last week of December either.  You're not going to get any news coverage over the week between Christmas and New Year's.  If Iowa is in December, it would probably be a week before Christmas, like Dec. 19.

I guess we'll find out one way or the other soon enough.

[Mr. Morden]

It now sounds (via Chuck Todd) like Iowa will set their date soon (before NH announces), and would prefer to go in January.

Or perhaps Iowa just wants to grab the Jan. 3 date before NH takes it?  That would force NH to either go with something like Jan. 7 or move into December.

[Mr. Morden]

Reading some of the public comments by people in the know over the last ~24 hours, I'd say that there's a better than 50/50 chance that we're headed towards either Iowa or NH voting in December, and probably about a ~30% chance that NH votes *before* Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Rumors are percolating about Romney's allies in the early primary states having pushed for this calendar, with Santorum leading the accusations:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/06/romney-rebuked-over-primary-calendar-moves/

All we know for certain is that Romney campaign people in Nevada publicly said that they preferred for Nevada to schedule its caucuses in January, before Florida.  Whether there was actually a hidden Romney hand in the selection of Jan. 14 in particular, or in the selection of dates for Florida or other states as well is unclear.

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa hasn't really officially decided anything yet:

link

The caucus date will be voted on on Oct. 16, but until then, it's rather tentative.

The problem with NH going later than that is that Bill Gardner says that he's hamstrung by NH state law, which he claims forces him to go at least 7 days before Nevada.  He also "said the primary would not be scheduled for a Saturday because it is the Jewish sabbath".

So where does that leave us?  Unless Gardner is completely bluffing here, the latest he'll schedule the NH primary is Friday, Jan. 6th, just 3 days later than the tentative date for Iowa.  But is it really very likely that he'd go for a Friday primary?  '“Every presidential primary has been on a Tuesday, every state primary has been on a Tuesday, and ever federal and state general election has been on a Tuesday,” Gardner said.'

This is why I'm thinking that it's very very possible that NH will move all the way up to December (maybe the 20th?), putting it before Iowa.  Or possibly, NH moves in and takes Jan. 3rd, and Iowa is bumped up into December instead.

[Mr. Morden]

I believe the NH law was changed just a few years ago, so that the SoS can now set it for any day of the week, not just a Tuesday.  So in principle, Gardner could set it for Saturday the 7th.  But he doesn't seem to want to.  He wants to set it for a Tuesday.

Likewise, the 8 day rule in Iowa didn't seem to be binding in 2008, when the caucuses were only 5 days before NH.

So there's flexibility there.  Both states would ideally like to go on Jan. 3, and they'd both like to not have to share that week with the other state.  But obviously, at least one of them is going to lose out on that.  We may find out next weekend, if the Iowa GOP takes a vote on what date to set the caucuses for on Oct. 16.

[Mr. Morden]

Sounds to me like NH will go Tues 1/3 and Iowa will go the last week of December.

I just don't believe they'd hold the caucus on the day after Christmas, or really any time that week between X-mas and New Year's..  If they're going in December, it'll probably be in the week before Christmas, perhaps Dec. 19.

[Mr. Morden]

You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

Probably.  Everyone's on vacation that week.  Who's going to be paying attention to politics?

[Mr. Morden]

Ballot Access News notes that the 2012 primary season will be the longest ever, and that the "median primary date" will be April 3, the latest it's been since 1992:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/10/09/2012-presidential-primary-season-likely-to-last-a-record-length-of-time/

[Mr. Morden]

I still say there's a non-negligible chance that NH goes before Iowa, and the media hasn't really caught onto this yet.

It's highly likely that next Sunday, the Iowa GOP will vote to hold their caucus on Jan. 3.  That's when we find out if Bill Gardner is bluffing.  If he's really serious about sticking with a Tuesday, going at least 7 days before Nevada and giving NH a week of its own that it doesn't share with other states, then we'll have a December New Hampshire primary.

Does Iowa then abandon Jan. 3, and jump up to December as well, to keep up with New Hampshire?  Possibly, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.  Sticking with Jan. 3, and letting NH go first would be a very real possibility.  In general, being the first primary/caucus state maximizes your influence.  But it's not clear that that would hold if you really move your primary or caucus up into December and the holiday season.  Any momentum one would get from a December primary could easily evaporate, as people are focused on the holidays.

I guess we'll find out soon enough....

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?

Legally, they can move it again.  Practically......they can't wait forever.  At some point in the not too distant future, they really should start locking down sites to hold the caucuses, so they know they can pull this off without a hitch.  Though I imagine such a day of reckoning won't come until at least Nov. 1.

OTOH, the FHQ blog indicated that NH is so experienced with throwing together a primary at the last minute, that they could potentially do it all within a couple of weeks or something.  I think I had previously mentioned that the federal MOVE Act required them to set a date something like two months in advance, but apparently that's not an issue if they're willing to pay a fine for violating it.

[Mr. Morden]

NH SoS Bill Gardner issues a memo in which the first nine paragraphs are about how the New Hampshire primary is awesome:

http://www.sos.nh.gov/Why%20New%20Hampshire%20is%20First%2010.12.11.pdf

The rest of the memo is a plea to Nevada to move its caucus to Jan. 17 or later, so that NH can schedule their primary for Jan. 10 and follow their law that requires a 7 day window before the next contest, while also honoring the state's tradition of voting on a Tuesday.

Gardner says that if Nevada doesn't agree to that, he'll consider scheduling NH for December 6 or 13.

EDIT: And Sandoval says thanks, but no thanks:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/new-hampshire-and-nevada-have-words-over-presidential-contests/2011/10/12/gIQAT8GMgL_blog.html

[Mr. Morden]

This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.

As if this presidential race wasn't screwed up enough as it is.

Edit: Won't Iowa have to move its caucus to before NH?

No, they don't "have to".  It's an open question as to whether they would or not.  My guess is no, they'd just let NH go first if it wants to go in December.  Certainly, Iowa isn't going to move into November, just a few days after Thanksgiving.

NH going in December and then nothing happening for about a month screws over Mitt Romney hard.

Don't worry, because Romney's opponents are here to bail him out:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20119904-503544.html

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And now Bachmann, Gingrich, and Santorum are saying the same thing (according to Josh McElveen at WMUR....still haven't found a real news article to confirm that):

Twitter link

Twitter link

Will Nevada now fold?  Or do they not care about the second tier candidates skipping their caucus?