US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Torie]

The Congressional map has been worked out per the Capitolwire buzz except as to the issue of whether PA-07 gets but 40,000 residents in Lancaster County (the demand of the Lancaster County legislative delegation), or closer to 100,000 residents, which is what the incumbent in PA-07, Meehan wants. Thus the delay, and the battle continues. The map may not be finalized by tomorrow. Tempers are flaring.

All this leak stuff is fun! 

[minionofmidas]

Not a bad idea, there. Of course, that 10th is totally hilarious.

[Torie]

Not a bad idea, there. Of course, that 10th is totally hilarious.

The whole map is quite hilarious actually.  Here is the 100,000 thrust into Lancaster that Meehan is pining for for your viewing pleasure Lewis. The redraw put pressure on PA-06, so I needed to shave PA-17 a bit more, to get it to suck up some marginal precincts around Reading, so that PA-06 was not bogged down by them, and could get to the Pubbie promise land in upper NW Berks and part of Lebanon, and it had to give back to PA-07 heavily Dem West Chester to boot (that now cyan little box delimited by purple lines just to the west of the number "7" on the map).  

The geography gets very tight around Reading.  Originally, I had PA-11 do a parallel spike down to the Reading suburbs, but decided that was a bridge too far.  All in all, not a bad looking map.  Of course, it trashes county lines here, there, and everywhere, but that is what happens under partisan stress, where the pickings are so thin.  

I must say I have come to know the geography of Pennsylvania really, really well.  

[minionofmidas]

That 6th district looks like modern art.

[Torie]

That 6th district looks like modern art.

Can you discern the famous "mainline" RR on the map above Lewis?  Due to the small precincts that hug it (a long line of Dem precincts btw - the rich don't like to live right next to RR lines), you can follow it right from downtown Philly and see it go NWW, and then slowly curve and head SWW through Chester County. There are so many famous RR stops along that line, one prestigious university name after another. For the past two years, I have taken that line from the Paoli RR stop all the way to NYC. It gave me a kind of thrill.

[Keystone Phil]

There are so many famous RR stops along that line, one prestigious university name after another. For the past two years, I have taken that line from the Paoli RR stop all the way to NYC. It gave me a kind of thrill.

That's such a nice area. I couldn't live out there but it's great to visit.

[Keystone Phil]

Our state legislative districts were just finalized, if anyone cares. Thankfully, they cleaned up the districts in my area. It's still somewhat messy but a lot better than the disaster they originally proposed.

[cowboy300]

The prelim map: http://www.flickr.com/photos/politicspa/6507130259/

[krazen1211]

Haha they split the Lehigh Valley.

[Keystone Phil]

I can't tell if I'm in the 1st or 13th! I can't tell on my phone. Of course, I left Harrisburg not too long after the map came out.

[Keystone Phil]

Barletta goes into South Central PA. Wow. Insane.

[Brittain33]

What is that green mess in the middle of Montgomery County?

That map is almost Ohio bad. Not quite.

[Brittain33]

Did Platts get Harrisburg?

[Keystone Phil]

What is that green mess in the middle of Montgomery County?

That map is almost Ohio bad. Not quite.

It's Meehan's. That is easily one of the worst in the country in terms of gerrymandering.

[krazen1211]

18th: 55% McCain 51% Republican
4th: 54% McCain 50% Republican
3rd: 52% McCain 53% Republican
14th: 67% Obama 70% Democrat
9th: 59% McCain 57% Republican
5th: 52% McCain 54% Republican
12th (Platts): 54% McCain 59% Republican
10th: 56% McCain 60% Republican
11th: 53% McCain 56% Republican
17th: 57% Obama 57% Democrat
15th: 51% Obama 51% Republican
8th: 53% Obama 51% Democrat



Guesswork:

16th: 50% McCain 57% Republican
6th: 54% Obama 50% Republican
7th: 53% Obama 50% Republican

[Torie]

My, a lot of changes from the buzz, at least at the margins. PA-11 does get Cumberland, PA-09 wanders off to Armstrong County, PA-15 does not go up the river in Beaver County, but instead up the river to New Kensington to the NE, the chop into Easton also grabs some Dem suburbs, and PA-07 and PA-06 are quite the surprise, with PA-07 being bounced out of all or most of Chester County. PA-07 does not get the 100,000 Lancaster residents (it looks more like 60,000), but in exchange, PA-16 marches into Chester to suck up some Dem precincts.  PA-11 does the job of taking the marginal suburbs of Harrisburg. The partisan numbers however should be quite close to mine -  very close.

[Torie]

18th: 55% McCain 51% Republican
4th: 54% McCain 50% Republican
3rd: 52% McCain 53% Republican
14th: 67% Obama 70% Democrat
9th: 59% McCain 57% Republican
5th: 52% McCain 54% Republican
12th (Platts): 54% McCain 59% Republican
10th: 56% McCain 60% Republican
11th: 53% McCain 56% Republican
17th: 57% Obama 57% Democrat
15th: 51% Obama 51% Republican
8th: 53% Obama 51% Democrat



Guesswork:

16th: 50% McCain 57% Republican
6th: 54% Obama 50% Republican
7th: 53% Republican

Are those published numbers, or ones you worked up krazen?

[krazen1211]

18th: 55% McCain 51% Republican
4th: 54% McCain 50% Republican
3rd: 52% McCain 53% Republican
14th: 67% Obama 70% Democrat
9th: 59% McCain 57% Republican
5th: 52% McCain 54% Republican
12th (Platts): 54% McCain 59% Republican
10th: 56% McCain 60% Republican
11th: 53% McCain 56% Republican
17th: 57% Obama 57% Democrat
15th: 51% Obama 51% Republican
8th: 53% Obama 51% Democrat



Guesswork:

16th: 50% McCain 57% Republican
6th: 54% Obama 50% Republican
7th: 53% Obama 50% Republican

Are those published numbers, or ones you worked up krazen?

Eyeballed and drew. They could be way off, particularly the last 3.

[Keystone Phil]

Did Platts get Harrisburg?

Yep.

[Keystone Phil]

Maps by region (a lot clearer) - http://www.pahousegop.com/Display/SiteFiles/109/OtherDocuments/Congress_regionals.pdf


It looks like I'm just in the 13th.

[Torie]

Maps by region (a lot clearer) - http://www.pahousegop.com/Display/SiteFiles/109/OtherDocuments/Congress_regionals.pdf


It looks like I'm just in the 13th.

  Correct. That part of the map matched mine exactly.

[Torie]

18th: 55% McCain 51% Republican
4th: 54% McCain 50% Republican
3rd: 52% McCain 53% Republican
14th: 67% Obama 70% Democrat
9th: 59% McCain 57% Republican
5th: 52% McCain 54% Republican
12th (Platts): 54% McCain 59% Republican
10th: 56% McCain 60% Republican
11th: 53% McCain 56% Republican
17th: 57% Obama 57% Democrat
15th: 51% Obama 51% Republican
8th: 53% Obama 51% Democrat



Guesswork:

16th: 50% McCain 57% Republican
6th: 54% Obama 50% Republican
7th: 53% Obama 50% Republican

Are those published numbers, or ones you worked up krazen?

Eyeballed and drew. They could be way off, particularly the last 3.

OK.  It is going to be a headache to draw PA-06 and 07. 

[Keystone Phil]

Maps by region (a lot clearer) - http://www.pahousegop.com/Display/SiteFiles/109/OtherDocuments/Congress_regionals.pdf


It looks like I'm just in the 13th.

  Correct. That part of the map matched mine exactly.

Dude, are you serious? I'm going crazy over here.   

[Brittain33]

Twitter is full of people saying that Kennett Square in PA-16 is not contiguous with the rest of the district per the map. This has to be an image misrepresentation and not true, right?

[TeePee4Prez]

Well... I could see some potential overreach by the GOP and may eventually get burned once again.  Let's hope.