US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[krazen1211]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Conceding 2 districts probably creates some problems for Murphy. If he's the only Republican down there, he pretty much swoops up a lot of suburban Republicans who are more conservative than he is.

Nah, I was thinking along the lines (for their wet dream, that is) he'd pick and choose what he wants, Kelly picks and chooses what he wants (except that Thompson vetoes Kelly shedding all of Erie, obviously), even Shuster picks only what he's ready to take from Critz' district. The rest of the two districts is combined, except Doyle obviously picks up Democrats.
Altmire and Critz would be paired in what would probably be a slightly weaker McCain district than what Altmire currently has. Everybody's happy. Except for Republican hopefuls looking for a district to run in, of course. And they exist, as we know.

Something like that looks about like an L; starting at Beaver/New Castle county and running along the border to Fayette and Green Counties.


Latest news is that Barletta will start at Luzerne and swoop down to Harrisburg. Holden will get Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Wilkes Barre, Reading, and Easton.

[minionofmidas]

Latest news is that Barletta will start at Luzerne and swoop down to Harrisburg. Holden will get Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Wilkes Barre, Reading, and Easton.

I like that, somehow (Stroudsburg too I suppose?)

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Holden getting Easton is quite a gerrymander.

[Torie]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Conceding 2 districts probably creates some problems for Murphy. If he's the only Republican down there, he pretty much swoops up a lot of suburban Republicans who are more conservative than he is.

Nah, I was thinking along the lines (for their wet dream, that is) he'd pick and choose what he wants, Kelly picks and chooses what he wants (except that Thompson vetoes Kelly shedding all of Erie, obviously), even Shuster picks only what he's ready to take from Critz' district. The rest of the two districts is combined, except Doyle obviously picks up Democrats.
Altmire and Critz would be paired in what would probably be a slightly weaker McCain district than what Altmire currently has. Everybody's happy. Except for Republican hopefuls looking for a district to run in, of course. And they exist, as we know.

Something like that looks about like an L; starting at Beaver/New Castle county and running along the border to Fayette and Green Counties.


Latest news is that Barletta will start at Luzerne and swoop down to Harrisburg. Holden will get Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Wilkes Barre, Reading, and Easton.

Are so, here is the map for the day, circa December 7, 2011.  

[Brittain33]

The leaping gazelle!

[Torie]

The leaping gazelle!

It is a pity that PA-01 does not impinge into Montco, so the number of CD's in that county can get up to a lucky 7, rather than a mere 6!  

[Keystone Phil]

They'll have it done by Thursday night at the latest since all of the big shots will have to be in NYC by Friday morning at the latest.

Looks like they punted it until past the PA Society meeting.

Oh, even better. Expect even more outrageous proposals after this weekend, boys.

[Brittain33]

Is anyone running the show? How are they going to finalize a map and who's going to make that decision? This sure looks to be leading a compromise that helps Republicans some but has all sorts of ugliness and inefficiency in it... (I think someone said that upthread.)

[Keystone Phil]

Is anyone running the show? How are they going to finalize a map and who's going to make that decision? This sure looks to be leading a compromise that helps Republicans some but has all sorts of ugliness and inefficiency in it... (I think someone said that upthread.)

Running what show? The redistricting process?

[minionofmidas]

Is anyone running the show?

Several people, and they're trying to run each other over with it.

[krazen1211]

Is anyone running the show? How are they going to finalize a map and who's going to make that decision? This sure looks to be leading a compromise that helps Republicans some but has all sorts of ugliness and inefficiency in it... (I think someone said that upthread.)

Well, it seems to be using a Lewis type of strategy. After Brady, Fattah, and Schwartz get their desired districts, each of the remaining SEPA Republicans seems to be bickering over territory. The result it seems will be a leaping gazelle PA-17 (and an equally ugly PA-04) that string together whatever random territory is left.

[minionofmidas]

I guess deciding what territory to set aside for a three district Democrat area in and around Philly was the easy part, and any Democratic input would have been limited to the internal division of the resulting area.

[krazen1211]

I guess deciding what territory to set aside for a three district Democrat area in and around Philly was the easy part, and any Democratic input would have been limited to the internal division of the resulting area.

Correct. The Philadelphia Democratic party might get its desired districts. Bob Brady in particular has been helpful in the past.

I'm not sure why Fattah requested Lower Merion in his district, but rumors are he got that too.

[minionofmidas]

I guess deciding what territory to set aside for a three district Democrat area in and around Philly was the easy part, and any Democratic input would have been limited to the internal division of the resulting area.

Correct. The Philadelphia Democratic party might get its desired districts. Bob Brady in particular has been helpful in the past.

I'm not sure why Fattah requested Lower Merion in his district, but rumors are he got that too.

Brady and Fattah are both from West Philadelphia, and any map not designed specifically to accomodate them is pretty much bound to draw them together.

[Keystone Phil]

Correct. The Philadelphia Democratic party might get its desired districts. Bob Brady in particular has been helpful in the past. .

Brady wants Northeast Philly, even stretching all the way up to my part of the Northeast (the Far Northeast which borders Bucks). It seemed like it was going to happen awhile ago but there hasn't been talk about it recently.

[Torie]

Correct. The Philadelphia Democratic party might get its desired districts. Bob Brady in particular has been helpful in the past. .

Brady wants Northeast Philly, even stretching all the way up to my part of the Northeast (the Far Northeast which borders Bucks). It seemed like it was going to happen awhile ago but there hasn't been talk about it recently.

Piece of cake as long as PA-13 marches into Delaware County, wrapping around Lower Merion, and then jutting down to the Philly airport at least, and maybe all the way to down the Delaware River to beautiful downtown Chester.  The map is now hideously ugly anyway. I now realize from the description that PA-07 goes almost all the way down to the City of Philly along the Bucks County border taking in Morelands. I will put up my "corrected" map later. It's hilarious!   Leashing PA-07 to just 40,000 residents in Lancaster per the ultimatum of the Lancaster County legislators got the Pubbies rather desperate, so any community of interest issues were flushed, and it is all done precinct by precinct, just the way I did it with my very first PA map!    

What the Pubs really need to do is my excise South Philly trick  (those 20 or so 51% McCain precincts), putting them into PA-07 via the airport runway (the only entrance thereto not packed with Dems as opposed to planes ), and then have PA-13 grab Swarthmore and some other "bad places" in Delaware. We shall see if they finally decide to "just do it."  

[Keystone Phil]

What the Pubs really need to do is my excise South Philly trick  (those 20 or so 51% McCain precincts), putting them into PA-07 via the airport runway (the only entrance thereto not packed with Dems as opposed to planes ),

Here's where our disagreement from before rears its head again: mixing of suburban counties with Philly is generally seen as a no-no. The suburban parties usually dislike it even if it means picking up areas that help their party. Plus, it's a mixing of individual personalities within the parties that doesn't necessarily work out.

Not to sound like some know it all but it's real insider stuff that others don't know. People like yourself, Lewis, muon, etc. are people that look at this from a more idealistic standpoint. You experiment with maps that benefit members of a party and/or ideology but also make maps that are fair to communities. It's more idealistic and fun but it's a lot more than looking at an area and saying, "Well, Township X went 54% for McCain so Republicans have to put that in!"

[Torie]

What the Pubs really need to do is my excise South Philly trick  (those 20 or so 51% McCain precincts), putting them into PA-07 via the airport runway (the only entrance thereto not packed with Dems as opposed to planes ),

Here's where our disagreement from before rears its head again: mixing of suburban counties with Philly is generally seen as a no-no. The suburban parties usually dislike it even if it means picking up areas that help their party. Plus, it's a mixing of individual personalities within the parties that doesn't necessarily work out.

Not to sound like some know it all but it's real insider stuff that others don't know. People like yourself, Lewis, muon, etc. are people that look at this from a more idealistic standpoint. You experiment with maps that benefit members of a party and/or ideology but also make maps that are fair to communities. It's more idealistic and fun but it's a lot more than looking at an area and saying, "Well, Township X went 54% for McCain so Republicans have to put that in!"

Yes, that is all well and good, but the Pubs per what is published, are already in the desperation mode vis a vis PA-07.  I haven't read anywhere anyway, about the South Philly rule.  That does not mean it is not out there of course. Those south Philly Italians and airline pilots and stews really want to be a tiny minority in a sea of Dems represented by a solid phalanx of Dems do they?  Who knew?  

Anyway, here is the redraw, which coincidentally "fits" the published number that PA-07 is about 2 points more Pubbie than the national average. Brady can't get more of NE Philly unless he is drawn out of his home, which is in the far NW prong jut of his CD in Philly, a nice middle class 87% black neighborhood. He has a nice little ranch house with a very nice lawn.

You have to admit, that PA-13 has become a just awesome looking CD, even better than PA-07.  And yes, I slipped Swarthmore into it.  And PA-13 is now 66% Obama. Schwartz might be primaried. She may be too moderate for this little erose monster!  LOL.

[Keystone Phil]

Those south Philly Italians and airline pilots and stews really want to be a tiny minority in a sea of Dems represented by a solid phalanx of Dems do they?  Who knew?  

It doesn't have to do with the voters, Torie.    It's a political insider game.

And I'm not sure what you mean about the "South Philly rule." If you're referring to my points, it's isn't exclusive to South Philly.

[Torie]

Those south Philly Italians and airline pilots and stews really want to be a tiny minority in a sea of Dems represented by a solid phalanx of Dems do they?  Who knew?  

It doesn't have to do with the voters, Torie.    It's a political insider game.

And I'm not sure what you mean about the "South Philly rule." If you're referring to my points, it's isn't exclusive to South Philly.

Well, south Philly is not in play at the moment, so the matter is moot. I think I broke the code.  If I had to guess, this is very close to the SE PA portion of the map sitting on the desk of the map decision makers, per the array of clues. It more or less does the job for the Pubs - barely. PA voters seem to take a lot of abuse don't they? And they seem to have a lot of tolerance for political hacks, going back decades - of both parties. Maybe all these cheese-steaks make them too fat to get off their couch. That is what caught my eye in PA - all those fats.

[Torie]

Here is another version of the map, which may be a bit more likely to be adopted. It does some major surgery on PA-05, but its new geography better fits in with Thompson's Centre County base, and shifts 80 GOP basis points into his CD which he needs.  Most of the shift comes from Pubbie sink PA-10, which sheds a GOP point. On the other hand, this map moves 50 Pub basis points out of PA-04, better hewing to the published reports that its lines on its east end in Somerset and Cambria Counties will follow the old Critz CD lines: silly, but that was what was written.

Finally, Adams in this map stays in PA-12, rather than going to PA-09, with PA-09 taking up a lot more of Cumberland instead, also following existing lines more closely. It is one  half dozen or the other whether PA-09 takes Adams or Cumberland, but Congressmen tend to dislike new territory, and with PA-05 now dipping down into Huntingdon, the shape of PA-09 looks less grotesque jutting into Cumberland than in the prior version of the map, and that tipped the scales for me. It doesn't change the partisan balance between PA-09 and PA-12 (PA-12 picks up ten GOP basis points).

And oh yes, I "found" 20 more Pub basis points to shove into PA-07.  

[Torie]

Since the GOP is still fighting over their PA map, and it won't be released today, I figured I might as well put up another map, new and improved of course. Someone had the insight to have PA-10 suck up some of Erie in lieu of PA-05, and it made so much sense, that the Pubs might just do it. So with that fix, here is the map. Shuster (PA-09) should still suck up Johnstown to end all this chatter about PA-04, and just make it stone cold GOP, but Shuster is Shuster. Oh, yes, PA-10 and PA-05 do in fact have identical numbers. That is not a typo.

[Keystone Phil]

The new maps are expected to be announced tomorrow morning, incidentally while I'm in Harrisburg.

It has been confirmed that Altmire and Critz have been drawn into the same district.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I guess I'll support Altmire.

[Torie]

I guess I'll support Altmire.

Two thirds of the CD will be Altmire's old territory, if not more, and Pittsburg suburbs mostly, so I would not think Critz would have much of a chance. His old CD was ludicrous anyway - just a monstrosity. But I suspect the GOP would rather have Critz as an opponent.