US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Torie]

Here is the Easton "fix," which moves 1.6 Pubbie points from PA-17 to PA-15.  One would think the GOP would be sorely tempted to do this. We shall see.





And here is the Erie split overlay on top of the Easton excision. PA-03 adds 90 Pubbie basis points, PA-18 loses 30 Pubbie basis points, PA-05 10 basis points, and PA-10 40 basis points. PA-04 (by design) stays the same (actually it goes more Pubbie by 10 basis points because I found a 56% McCain precinct in a town already split in PA-14, and "corrected" that in exchange for a 56% Obama precinct in PA-04 in Mt. Lebanon, a town that I had already chopped the heck out of since its partisan variations are so relatively extreme).

[minionofmidas]

It arguably makes sense from a CoI view. Putting Easton with Stroudsburg, I mean, not with the 17th Dem sink.
I suppose there'll be people wanting to keep the Lehigh Valley together, though.

I just searched through your list of numbers to find out what number you're giving the Lancaster/Reading/Harrisburg seat. 9? Wtf? Use the original color scheme except where there's very good reason, please.

This got me to guessing the numbering scheme.
Republican incumbents usually keep their number. Platts can't. The abolished district is presumably the 12th. Evidently some district needs to take that number, and just as evidently Shuster and Murphy are particularly unlikely recipients (not that district number actually affects anything, but this is how things tend to go...) Platts to 12 is the easiest fix... but it's not without alternative. It's such a strange number for that part of the map, after all. Platts to 17, Holden to 12? (Or even Platts to 17, Holden to 13, Schwartz to 12?) That creates a nice little cluster of Dem numbers.

[Torie]

It arguably makes sense from a CoI view. Putting Easton with Stroudsburg, I mean, not with the 17th Dem sink.
I suppose there'll be people wanting to keep the Lehigh Valley together, though.

I just searched through your list of numbers to find out what number you're giving the Lancaster/Reading/Harrisburg seat. 9? Wtf? Use the original color scheme except where there's very good reason, please.

This got me to guessing the numbering scheme.
Republican incumbents usually keep their number. Platts can't. The abolished district is presumably the 12th. Evidently some district needs to take that number, and just as evidently Shuster and Murphy are particularly unlikely recipients (not that district number actually affects anything, but this is how things tend to go...) Platts to 12 is the easiest fix... but it's not without alternative. It's such a strange number for that part of the map, after all. Platts to 17, Holden to 12? (Or even Platts to 17, Holden to 13, Schwartz to 12?) That creates a nice little cluster of Dem numbers.

Sorry, I should have put up the color legend. It is up now. I need to change colors sometimes as the lines move around, and different CD's append each other, to get adequate contrast. Such is life.

[Keystone Phil]

The most recent, detailed take on the maps - http://earlyreturns.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/early-returns-20/53-post-gazette-staff/3693-show-time

It turns out Fattah, not Schwartz, is getting all of Lower Merion.

If the maps really are released on Monday, this upcoming weekend will be even more of a blast since it's the annual Pennsylvania Society Weekend in New York City (yeah, hearing about it for the first time makes people think to themselves, "Pennsylvania Society in New York?" but it makes sense. It's a little getaway for politicos). I can't wait. Aside from getting stuck in a bad district, a map release on Monday will be horrible since I have jury duty. 

[Torie]

The most recent, detailed take on the maps - http://earlyreturns.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/early-returns-20/53-post-gazette-staff/3693-show-time

It turns out Fattah, not Schwartz, is getting all of Lower Merion.

If the maps really are released on Monday, this upcoming weekend will be even more of a blast since it's the annual Pennsylvania Society Weekend in New York City (yeah, hearing about it for the first time makes people think to themselves, "Pennsylvania Society in New York?" but it makes sense. It's a little getaway for politicos). I can't wait. Aside from getting stuck in a bad district, a map release on Monday will be horrible since I have jury duty.  

My guesstimate of the House map as described in the article Phil linked.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Wow, SW PA got torn apart. Also, when will we finally get past that dirty trick of splitting cities in between Republican areas? On one hand I'd like to see a court redrawing to make sure that not every county of any party affiliation is split 50 ways, but on the other hand I have a feeling this'll come back to bite Corbett and pals where it hurts.

[Miles]

Good work Torie. I really dislike the result of your map, but I appreciate all the effort you put into it.

[Torie]

Good work Torie. I really dislike the result of your map, but I appreciate all the effort you put into it.

Thanks.  I found a few of those pesky tiny non-contiguous precincts, which after cleaning them up forced PA-05 to suck up 6,000 more folks in 3 to 1 Obama precincts in Erie, causing PA-05 to fall to unacceptably low Pubbie levels. So I did a scramble, pushing PA-09 into Centre County to suck up all the State College Obama suburbs and some Centre County river towns on its east side. The article implied that PA-09 crashed down to a GOP PVI of 11, and this gets down to around that number, meaning that PA-09 probably does chop into Centre, if Fayette and Greene Counties are left whole, as the article further implied. Plus anything that irritates that porker hack Shuster some more,  is always a good thing.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Also, I'm pretty much on the border between Pitts's district (light gray in the second picture) and the brown district above it of Northern Lancaster, Lebanon, and parts of Berks, Dauphin and Chester.

Also, is the 18th supposed to be the one Democratic district in SW PA (other than Pittsburgh)?

[Torie]

Also, I'm pretty much on the border between Pitts's district (light gray in the second picture) and the brown district above it of Northern Lancaster, Lebanon, and parts of Berks, Dauphin and Chester.

Also, is the 18th supposed to be the one Democratic district in SW PA (other than Pittsburgh)?

The 18th is the Goldilocks CD, not too Pubbie (Murphy would be T Partied), and not too Dem (he would lose maybe to a Tory Dem), but just right. It's about even historically, but swung hard to McCain (thus its high Pubbie PVI based on 2008 numbers only), and I don't think it is going to swing back to even anytime soon. I think the Pubbie trend in western PA has legs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it does then it kept them tastefully covered up in the House/State Legislature elections last year, at least when compared to the rest of the state. Stranger things have happened though.

[minionofmidas]

It doesn't really matter. Murphy doesn't look like he's going to retire anytime soon.

Weren't we supposed to get a map yesterday?

[krazen1211]

It doesn't really matter. Murphy doesn't look like he's going to retire anytime soon.

Weren't we supposed to get a map yesterday?

Delayed till Wednesday.

[muon2]

It doesn't really matter. Murphy doesn't look like he's going to retire anytime soon.

Weren't we supposed to get a map yesterday?

Delayed till Wednesday.

They're checking numbers against Torie's.

[Torie]

It doesn't really matter. Murphy doesn't look like he's going to retire anytime soon.

Weren't we supposed to get a map yesterday?

Delayed till Wednesday.

They're checking numbers against Torie's.

LOL.. Nah, the Congresspersons and the State House dudes are just all at each other's throats. That is what happens when the margin for error is so thin, and folks all want something better than before, rather than worse. Poor Thompson in PA-05 seems to be getting really screwed, and will end up with a  close to marginal CD if they don't do the State College chop.  It is inconvenient that Thompson lives in Centre County.

There is probably another nasty fight going on over Lancaster City and Reading, and who gets those nodes of toxicity for Pubbies. The map doesn't work too well unless PA-12 joins the fray. I suppose if you want the map uglier, PA-12 could move into Harrisburg, and PA-17 into Reading, since apparently PA-12 moving into Lancaster is some cardinal sin (like chopping Bucks) in the PA local culture.  The point is that PA-12 needs to do something to suck up some Dem nodes.

[minionofmidas]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

[Torie]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Yes, I found the Lord at last, and Shuster keeps his number 9. 

[Keystone Phil]

They'll have it done by Thursday night at the latest since all of the big shots will have to be in NYC by Friday morning at the latest.

[krazen1211]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Conceding 2 districts probably creates some problems for Murphy. If he's the only Republican down there, he pretty much swoops up a lot of suburban Republicans who are more conservative than he is.

[Keystone Phil]

No maps tomorrow - http://www.politicspa.com/not-tomorrow-congressional-redistricting-maps-on-hold-again/29953/

[minionofmidas]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Conceding 2 districts probably creates some problems for Murphy. If he's the only Republican down there, he pretty much swoops up a lot of suburban Republicans who are more conservative than he is.

Nah, I was thinking along the lines (for their wet dream, that is) he'd pick and choose what he wants, Kelly picks and chooses what he wants (except that Thompson vetoes Kelly shedding all of Erie, obviously), even Shuster picks only what he's ready to take from Critz' district. The rest of the two districts is combined, except Doyle obviously picks up Democrats.
Altmire and Critz would be paired in what would probably be a slightly weaker McCain district than what Altmire currently has. Everybody's happy. Except for Republican hopefuls looking for a district to run in, of course. And they exist, as we know.

[minionofmidas]

I say they should pass it and let the courts decide how to interprete it.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I say they should pass it and let the courts decide how to interprete it.

Seconded.

[Torie]

Well the  map is undergoing a lot of changes. Barletta has decided he doesn't want Wilkes Barre anymore, the 7th is going into Montco big time, the 16th seems that it will suck up both Lancaster and Reading (doesn't make any sense to me but whatever), the 5th is just going to get just the Erie suburbs now, and not half of the whole ball of wax, and the fight is for Pubbies in Beaver County between the 3rd CD and the 4th CD.  The knives are out. Oh, and Lebanon is bi-chopped between the 6th and 15th CD's rather than being all in the 16th CD. I guess that is what frees up the 16th to suck up Reading, poor thing.  Berks is quad-chopped. In other news, Corbett  wants Wyoming to be in Barletta's CD (rather than Perry), so he gets part of the shale empire, the better to reap campaign contributions from them. I guess that industry feels the need to purchase politicians. Maybe that is why Wilkes Barre is no longer the apple of Barletta's eye. Maybe he values votes more than money.

This map is going to be a mess, almost as "gorgeous" as Ohio it seems like. Stay tuned.

[Brittain33]

They'll have it done by Thursday night at the latest since all of the big shots will have to be in NYC by Friday morning at the latest.

Looks like they punted it until past the PA Society meeting.